저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 제작자는 8월 28일 알리바바(BABA) 분석 영상 이후 주가가 예측대로 약 6.3% 하락하고 지지선 부근에서 반등했다고 주장. 최근 마이클 버리가 알리바바를 '슈퍼 팻 피치'로 언급했으나 현재 보유는 안 하고 있다는 점, 애널리스트 평균 목표가 188.72달러(약 66% 상승여력)를 근거로 제시. 다만 최근 고점(8/10) 대비 약 17.6% 하락, 10.2억 달러 유상증자 등 희석 우려도 언급. 기술적으로 113달러 지지선 반등 시 ABC 파동 구조를 가정해 중기 목표 151.64달러를 제시하고, 110달러 이탈 시 하방 시나리오를 제시. 거래량 확인을 조건으로 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello, my friends. This is the video that I made on Alibaba just several days ago, to be exact on August 28th of this year, when the price of this asset was, as you can see right here, at 116.2 dollars. And at this point, my main assumption was that we have to see a lower price action. We have to see the retest of this yellow line.
That might be the pivotal point for this stock because we could have from this bottom, we could have our A wave, B wave, and C wave to the upside. Otherwise, if the breakout happens, we might expect on a bigger scale A wave to this bottom. This might be the B wave and another leg to the downside to confirm its C wave.
And guys, take a look right here. This is the actual price action of Alibaba. And I made my previous video when this asset was somewhere at this point. And since I made it, this asset went lower exactly as I predicted. It lost about 6.3% of its value and I had a bounce out of this range. It is not a clear bounce or out of this line because it is a subjective line.
And you can draw it differently, but we didn't have enough volume to confirm the breakout below this level. On top of that, for now, it is hovering above this crucial point. And guys, as you can see, technical analysis works perfectly well. And if you want to know more about technical analysis, if you want to enhance your trading skills, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel.
And for now, you have an unique opportunity to join my Discord group absolutely for free. You will be able to see all my analysis and all my alerts that might be very useful for you. And you can decide to whether my paid section is for you or not. Cash in the bag, stadium packed. Want to rock star in this life, going to live it up.
And on today's video, guys, I will show you what should we expect next from the price action and what major catalyst might be on the table for the rest of the year. So, first of all, let's take a look at the general sentiment related to Baba stock and to find it out, we have to type in Google search bar Baba stock and switch to news top folder.
Here is the most recent news and first of all, I want to pay attention to this one. You can see that Michael Berry calls Lulu stock a fat pitch below $100. Names JD and Baba as its other top bets. And you know that Michael Berry is uh well, is very famous person who shorted the market during the uh crisis of 2008 and yes, it was one of his most famous trade, but since then, he didn't well, he didn't perform very well and uh some of his trades were very unsuccessful.
But at the same time, guys, he has a lot of knowledge uh of the market and he knows what he want to see in the upcoming uh let's say from two to maybe six months period. And here you can see that Michael Berry also named Alibaba uh and JD as other super fat pitches in his investment universe. Super fat pitches, take a look right here.
Uh wait a second, I will show you this. What is a fat pitch? In investing, an opportunity where the potential reward appears unusually attractive relative to the risk uh is called a fat pitch, which means, guys, he uh bets on the bullishness of Alibaba in the upcoming months. On top of that, uh take a look what he said about this stock.
Right now, the only others that are clear super fat pitches in my universe are JD and Alibaba. I own the former, but not the latter. Are they planning to buy Alibaba stock soon? Which means guys, he didn't he doesn't have an open position in Alibaba, but he want to buy it and definitely he is awaiting for confirmation and in my technical analysis, I will show you what type of confirmation this might be.
But first of all, let's switch again to another article that was published on Yahoo Finance from Simply Wall Street and it's titled Alibaba stock could still be a bargain as AI fund rising bites. And I want to pay attention to these three bullet points. This strong three-year return of 35.9% shows Alibaba has rewarded patient shareholders even though shorter term performance has been much more mixed.
A large AI and cloud spending including the recent 10.2 billion dollars Hong Kong share sale can support long-term cash flow growth, but also introduces dilution and execution risk if those projects take longer to pay off. This stock earns a high value score of five out of six and both the discount cash flow intrinsic value estimate and the market multiples currently point to Alibaba trading at a discount to their fair value value value benchmarks.
And guys, I completely agree with all of these bullet points because the performance of Alibaba for the last several months was extremely choppy. Let's put it this way. And the most recent news about the dilution and about the additional public offering of 10.2 billion US dollars was not the best news from the investors perspective.
That is why Alibaba had a substantial decline in its price from this swing high that was established on August the 10th, to this bottom, it lost again 17.6% of its value. At the same time, take a look right here. All of the metrics, all of the indicators from the intrinsic value and from the market multiples are pointing to the extremely oversold condition of Alibaba, which means it has a very high room to grow.
On top of that, guys, so let me pay your attention to the forecast from analytics firms. And among 39 analysts, we have the consensus analyst price target at 188.72, which implies more than 66% of upside potential. Even the lowest price target is set at almost 140, which implies almost 24% of upside potential.
And yes, in 1 year, I believe Alibaba will cost much higher, but at the same time, guys, this uh this price action will not be a straight line to the upside. It will still uh it might be a very choppy movement. That is why you have to be prepared for all potential outcomes. So, and let's continue with the technical analysis, but before we dive deep right here, please subscribe to my channel, hit notification bell, and hit the like button.
This helps me a lot. So, guys, what should we expect next? Definitely, I cannot predict the market. No one can, but we can react uh to the market movements. And uh for now, we are at the crucial level of $113, and we have to see the reaction out of this yellow line. Let's zoom out to, let's say, 4-hour time frame, and let me show you what uh is this line about.
If I zoom out even further to, let's say, 6-hour time frame, you can see that uh previously, we had a very good, if I connect all these bottoms uh from uh April uh of 2024, uh July of 2024, and January of 2025, we have very clear level of support that was broken, but we had a very good bounce to the upside.
And for now, we have this line again as the line of support. And we might have a bounce out of this line. If it happens, we will be in this type of structure. Wait a second. In this type of ABC structure. And if so, guys, we might expect the price Let's assume that this is the bottom of the B wave. And the ratio between A wave and C wave projected from the bottom of the B wave should be one to one.
And let's assume that if it is the bottom, we have to pull fib extension tool from the bottom to the top and to the bottom of the retracement. And as long as this bottom holds of $110, let's adjust this tool a little bit. We have to see at least $151.64 as the price target, medium-term price target for Alibaba within next, I believe, couple of months.
That is why, guys, wait for more confirmation. If it happens, let's delete all internal tools. I don't need them for now. If it happens, wait a second. That is wrong tool. I don't need this line and this line as well. If it happens, we will be in this type of ABC to the upside, but if it fails, we might expect from this top another ABC and C to the downside.
But the breakout below $110 should be with the confirmation of volume. As long as we don't see this type of breakout, we are in this type of movement, and we can rely on higher prices, but the crucial point well, we are at this crucial point and we have to first of all take a closer look at the reaction out of this range.
So, I think that's all information that I want to provide you. If you like my video, please hit the like button and subscribe to my channel with notification bell and see you guys and girls next time. Bye. I got the cash in the bag. Stadium bag. I'm a rockstar in this life. I'm living it up on the attack.
Baby, I'm bad. I just want to get caught up in this life. I'm crazy. I'm bad. Doing my dirt. Only God wants me.
Comments 0