저자: Andre · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바(BABA) 실적 발표 후 급등 뒤 약 15% 조정, 현재 횡보. 중국 이커머스 점유율 하락과 타오바오 판매자 이탈이 악재이며 기업분할(스핀오프) 지연도 부담. 애널리스트 목표가는 평균 약 $115(상단 $135)로 상승 여력 시사하나 하향 조정 중. 마이클 버리, 르네상스 등 기관 13F 공시는 엇갈림. 기술적으로 $66.65 지지 이탈 시 하락 추세, $75~82.5 돌파 시 중기 상승 전환 가능.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody Welcome to Money Management Channel my name is Andre and today I'm going to be doing an update on Baba stock got the cash in theum rockar and on today's video first of all I will show you where we are on a price chart and how we get there then we will continue with the fundamental news and I will show you what news might be important for this asset for upcoming week and at the end of this video I will share my thoughts and my technical analysis and I will show you what should we expect next so let's start with the price chart I made my previous video right here at this point and I told you that we had quite significant uh quite significant movements right around the earnings report and by the way guys I CAU this movement to the upside from the level of 0.5 all the way up to level uh negative 0.236 and it is the price points from 7128 all the way up to 7795 and here was the pure algo trade which brought us about 99.5% of potential profit and then I told you at the point where I made my previous video I told you that we have to uh leave any positions any long positions because most likely right after their earning support uh this asset might drop to the downside it might might drop significantly and as you can see this movement to the downside has about 15% during this movement this asset lost almost 15% of its value and for now we have quite sideways movement without any significant uh significant uh movements to the downside not more than 2% and uh uh not more than 3% to the upside so in my technical analysis I will show you what should we expect next and what crucial points do we have on this price chart but for now let's take a look on the news that might be uh important for this asset for upcoming weeks and even M if you take a look on the list of news list of recent news from Google if you type in search bar Baba Stock and switch to new stop folder you can see several news that are pretty much uh uh not so bullish let me first of all show you this one we are on financial times and this article was published just a couple of days ago and uh it's titled Alibaba gives way to China e-commerce rivals on jackma Boulevard and let me quote you this in shanji in Eastern China factories on Ali Road and jackma Boulevard turn out cabinets and coffee tables the streets were named in honor of Alibaba founder jackma after his company helped to transform the farming Town into a community of online Merchants over the past two decades but now the factory owners say Mass platforms do not guarantee sales they are beginning to put their Wares on Rival stores including pindor jd.com and invite dances do to stay a Flor the market forced me to turn to pindor Du otherwise we would have been eliminated said J Jan who runs five factors in Shan G Merchants are Liv in Alibaba and so are customers and guys it is quite scary statement and let me show you this chart it is alibaba's shrinking e-commerce market share and we have the uh data from q1 of 2019 till the Q3 of 2023 and uh as you can see at the bottom of this chart there is a Shear of Alibaba and as you can see its Shear becomes lower and lower but all the rivals especially new on like dun has an increasing share on this market and that is why guys during the tough times for uh Chinese market in general these uh conditions lead to more bearish pressure on the Baba stock on top of that let me show you this article it was published on February 16 on Yahoo finance and it says no clear sign of turnaround for Alibaba and guys this article explains in details its recent earnings report and uh it's uh it explains its recent news and here is the conclusion alibaba's International and logistic business have experience Healthy Growth for the past several quarters it Cloud business is gradually recovering from the price war in the low margin segment however its core China e-commerce business is still in trouble and there has been no clear sign of turnaround and guys the major downside for Alibaba right now is their spin-off and uh just uh couple of weeks ago they announced that their spin-off is pretty much delayed and they don't need to make an IPO on some of these branches that is why this spin-off might not even happen and we don't know the conditions of this spin-off that is why Alibaba cannot uh hit higher targets from its current levels but at the same time guys take a look right here this is the uh list of analytic firms who recently met their price targets who recently announced their price targets and despite that they lowered uh all of for the recent uh uh analytic firms lowered their price Target the price targets by itself are quite high at the levels uh from $85.
4 all the way up to $135 and because of this the consensus analyst price Target is still uh at $15.44 which implies about 56.8% of upside potential and guys uh let me remind you quite a bullish news on Alibaba you know that just a couple of weeks ago Joseph Tai and Jack ma added to their long position in Alibaba and definitely it was a good sign on top of that let me show you this news we are on South China Morning Post and this article was published just recently it's titled uh Hong Kong stock search as some fans turn bullish on Alibaba and Tech Pierce while Kaiu xank swi rally before in review and let me show you this Michael bur uh of for The Big Short Fame made Alibaba NJ dcom among his Funds top Holdings last quarter according to its regulatory filing this week hedge funds Renaissance technology Saba capital and 72 added new positions in Alibaba as did Canada pension plan investment board and oak3 Capital Management so as you can see these companies and uh uh Michael Bur are bullish on uh Alibaba but at the same time if we take a look on the list of institutional investors and the recent activity we can see that uh it has quite mixed filings by the way guys uh this date you have to remember that this date is not the uh deal execution date it is just filing date and you have to remember that the real deal date was made at least 45 days prior of this date and that is why this indicator has some DeLay So we have as I already mentioned we have mixed filings some companies opened new position some companies closed its uh long position and uh some companies like SE Asset Management in increased its position by 50% and this company is Mike burs company and here we can see that their major Holdings are Baba and jd.com and they have about 6 one 4 and 6.1% of allocation in their portfolio respectively and guys definitely this is quite bullish news but because of mixed filings in general from the so-called smart money list we cannot rely on any uh on any Trend we just uh it is just pure guessing to uh make any assumptions that is why guys and let's continue with the technical analysis but before we dive deep right here please subscribe to my channel hit notification Bell and hit the like button this helps me a lot that is why guys we have to identify its crucial points and they are pretty much the same that I marked in my uh last video in regards to Alibaba the lowest the uh this swing low at $7 7.42 is the wrench that should hold in order to remain bullish because otherwise if we take a look on a slightly bigger picture if we switch to let's say 3 hours time frame and uh uh let's make let me delete all the tools if it breaks this range we will establish lower losss and lower highs and the next range of support will be this point it is quite low range of 6665 and let me show you that it is pretty much the lowest point for this asset for quite a long period of time that is why guys in order to remain bullish we have to hold this line and we have to break uh several previous swing highs let me show you like this let's switch to hourly time frame and these swing Highs are following it is $75.
76 it is $ 77.5 and uh this range from $80 to $82.5 because only in this case we will establish at least a medium-term uptrend and that is how a lot of uh uh swing Traders will add to their position because uh it will be a clear sign to its at least medium-term bullishness so I think that's all information that I want to provide you if you like my video please hit the like button and subscribe to my Channel with notification Bell and see you guys and girls next time bye I got the cash in the back Stadium a rockar in this life going live it up on the attack baby I'm B I just want to get caught up in this life I'm crazy I'm that do it no only God want you better go it up
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