저자: DividendData채널진행자 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 2023년 질의응답 발언을 인용하며 채널 진행자가 반도체(인텔·TSMC)와 미디어(디즈니)에 대한 멍거의 부정적 시각을 소개하고 공감하는 영상이다. 멍거는 반도체 산업이 지속적인 설비 재투자를 요구하는 구조라 싫어하며, 현금이 쌓이는 사업을 선호한다고 밝혔다. 인텔은 과거의 지배력을 잃었고 TSMC가 더 강하다는 평가다. 진행자는 2022년 인텔 주식을 매수했다고 밝히며 저평가, 높은 배당수익률, 파운드리 성장 가능성을 근거로 들었으나 인텔의 리스크도 인정했다. 미디어 분야에서 멍거는 디즈니를 포함한 전통 미디어가 케이블 TV 쇠퇴와 스트리밍 경쟁으로 더 어려워졌다고 봤고, 영화 사업도 어렵다고 평가했다. 진행자는 디즈니의 IP와 테마파크, 스트리밍 전환을 높이 평가해 장기적으로 전통 미디어 중 가장 나은 위치라고 보며 보유 의사를 밝혔다. 다만 디즈니플러스는 아직 흑자가 아니며 갈 길이 멀다고 지적했다. 전반적으로 인텔과 디즈니는 멍거의 '넓은 해자와 단순하고 예측 가능한 사업' 기준에 맞지 않는다는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
Charlie Munger the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway just held a q a that as always was packed full of interesting opinions at the ripe age of 99 with peanut brittle and Diet Coke in hand he came ready to share his unfiltered thoughts I think the people that opposed my position are idiots sometimes I call it cryptocrabble and sometimes I call it crypto it's asinine it is it isn't even slightly stupid it's massively stupid worthless it's no good it's crazy what I call the crypto Monger covered many Topics in this event but today I'm going to share just two sections here he brings up very good arguments against some of the top stocks we discuss on the channel specifically semiconductor stocks like Intel and media companies like Disney his points are issues I have grown to become more concerned about throughout the video I'll provide full clips of monger and respond with my thoughts let's roll the intro foreign leave a like And subscribe to the channel if you enjoyed the video first let's focus on the semiconductor industry here Monker brings up a key economic reality that is vital to understand about the manufacturing business the semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry in the semiconductor industry you have to take all the money you've made and and with each new generation of chips you throw in all the money you previously made so it's compulsory investment of everything you want to stay in the game naturally I hate a business like that at Berkshire we like a whole lot of surplus money to come in we can do something else with and of course now if you're enough ahead of it like taiwan's semiconductor is that that may be a good buy at these prices I I I it's not at all clear to me that they're not going to succeed mightily but it's a it's a difficult it's a bit of an enormous promise for the big winner but it's a difficult business in requiring everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money it's not perfect that semiconductor business what Charlie Munger is describing in this clip is the rapidly increasing cost of creating new chip fabrication plants constant investment is required for chip manufacturers in most cases if they can't keep up with the latest and greatest technology then they will lose out on business this principle is outlined in rocks law which is considered the economic flip side of Moore's Law Moore's Law as many of you know states that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years Rock's law states that the cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years as Munger mentioned he hates businesses that require this constant level of reinvestment to retain relevance he outlines this reasoning in the following clip we tend to prefer the business which drowns in cash it just makes so much money that the main one of the main principles of owning it is you have all this cash coming in there are other businesses like the construction equipment business of my old friend John Anderson and he used to say about his business you work hard all year and at the end of the year there's your profit sitting in the yard there was never any cash just more used construction equipment we tend to hate businesses like that it's a lot easier to understand a business that's mailing you a check every month Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett prefer businesses where the cash just keeps piling up in this scenario they are able to reward shareholders invest in growth or acquire new businesses that is a key principle in the compounding machine that is Berkshire Hathaway companies like Intel and tsmc require massive investment just to retain their competitive position the flip side of that is that overall demand for semiconductors continues to grow rapidly long term so this investment has proved to be financially sound as long as you can capture market share in 2022 I bought some Intel stock as the company saw a near 50 decline in stock price the reasoning for this was a combination of low valuation High dividend yield large market share and the potential to grow a third-party Foundry business similar to tsmc however Intel is facing large risks and has lost manufacturing Supremacy to tsmc over the past decade Intel's new CEO Pat gelsinger is planning to regain this process leadership but only time will tell if it's successful Monger gives his thoughts on Intel and the competitive outlook here remember when Intel owned the world intel was once the Taiwan summing conductor business of the world yeah they invented the damn business and they dominated it for decades it's not clear to me that Intel is going to have a very decent semiconductor business getting as far behind as they are now it's my answer is it's not so damn foolproof as it looked even with the incentives to build plants here in the United States like Intel is doing in Ohio well of course that will really help but they're borrowing the money there's no indication the government is going to forgive the loans or something okay it's it's it's not a field where I feel I have a lot of expertise what the hell do I know about semiconductors but I do think Taiwan semiconductor is the strongest selling conductor company on Earth so I I'm a I'm a big admirer of what they've achieved it's just incredible of what they've achieved I mean by the way it may be a wonderful investment the fact that I don't like it because I'm an old man and I don't like learning new tricks that doesn't mean it isn't right for some younger person that understands it better than I do Intel and tsmc will be dueling it out over the next few decades for manufacturing leadership one thing is for sure whoever is the largest manufacturer will certainly have a great business on their hands personally I still have a lot more to learn about the semiconductor industry the rise of fabulous companies like AMD Nvidia broadcom and Qualcomm are very interesting I'll do a few more videos about these in the future comment below if you want to see a broadcom stock review video the second topic that I want to share from monger's q a is about the media business specifically Disney once again I own Disney stock and I'm bullish on their high quality Brands theme parks and transition to digital direct to consumer services however there is no question that Disney's Legacy businesses are facing massive disruption here are amonger's thoughts on that situation practically every business that Disney has has gotten tougher than it used to be again welcome to human life think about Disney once owned the world Lion King was running the long run on on the Theater District of New York they went from triumphs around marching marching marching all of a sudden I'm practically every front it's more difficult this is what happens imagine Kodak which totally dominated Photography in the world and they invented this new technology Kodak wiped out its common shareholders you think Disney's had it done the same path or you think that they'll be able to Pivot I mean I know you followed the company no I think Disney has a lot of Assets in it but yeah it's unpleasant to have something how would you like running the sports ESPN now at Disney compared to it's a day it's going to be way harder for them the Stock's up this year movies doesn't move movies look to me like it's going to be a bloodbath too so it's not a bit easy and it was easy in the Heyday of ESPN Disney made nothing but money out of ESPN the tone gold mine what about other uh movie businesses I I'm thinking of Paramount which is a huge holding that Berkshire now owns recent I live within a few blocks of Paramount Studios and I don't even know anybody at Paramount I have avoided the movies like the plague as an investor all my life I've never made an investment in a movie business in any way shape better or form it always gives me the well it was I don't like the unions I don't like the crazy agents I don't like the goddamn crazy lawyers I don't like the crazy movie stars I don't like the people who sell dope to them musicians I mean everything about it is not my culture it's a very it's always been very hard for the people who put up the money it may be a very good place to make a living as an actor or a writer or something or a musician but it's a hard place to make money if you're an investor the traditional media entertainment business is facing massive disruption the continued decline of the cable TV bundle will eat into their profits and overall distribution it's not clear how many of the companies will make the digital transition or retaining positive economics the internet revolution has changed the playing field Netflix YouTube social media and the rise of independent creators has changed everything many Legacy Media companies will be forced to restructure be sold for intellectual property or merged with other players it's my opinion that Disney is the best position of all the traditional companies their iconic Brands and Evergreen stories give them a massive competitive Advantage they leverage this across their monetization flywheel with consumer products licensing and integration into their own theme parks the popularity and size of their top brands is unrivaled on top of this the launch of their Digital streaming services have been a massive success compared to Rivals that said they are still not profitable on Disney plus and there's a long long way to go however Monger is still correct about Disney everything is much much harder than it used to be the moat on their linear television business is eroding around us the Cash Cow of ESPN which still rakes in profits has an obvious long-term decline associated with cable TV the growth of digital platforms like ESPN plus will be needed to counteract that Trend it's possible but hard not easy obviously Disney would have rather kept their near distribution Monopoly the same applies to ABC News and their entire linear television slate all of this is way worse than it used to be even General entertainment has become far less effective with the rise of streaming competitors and social media content like YouTube returning CEO Bob Iger said they are now focusing more on differentiated branded content and investing Less in general entertainment he even flowed the idea of selling Hulu which is not that bad of an idea as Munger mentioned the movie business is becoming more difficult too however Disney still has the best movie business of the the top 10 highest grossing films of all time Disney owns the IP of eight of them their new Avatar movie just hit 2.2 billion dollars globally that's not bad the movie business is not dead it's harder but not dead in conclusion it's completely logical why Charlie Munger has negative perspectives on the stocks discussed today Monger likes a wide moat no-brainer business where the economics are simple predictable and Rock Solid in 2023 Intel and Disney do not fit that bill both are facing disruption and competition thank you for watching dividend data let's let Charlie sign this video off I'm still here to do one more with you people we've been at this quite a few years so my best all of you bye
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