🚨 Ray Dalio JUST Talks about Market Bubble! (Know THIS)

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01. what's up everyone, it's K with Moneyvest. In this video we're going to talk about the overall market. Ray Dalio came out with some comments, and the personal consumption expenditure, the inflation numbers, also came out yesterday, so I'll break that down too. AMD skyrocketed, up a little over 9% on ramping up some AI products, and technology stocks pushed higher again, with the market drifting back up. The NASDAQ hit a new all-time high above 16,000 points. We have a lot to unpack in this market update.

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03. The NASDAQ closed at a record high, a very strong move up. The NASDAQ Composite is trading near 16,100, up over 90 basis points. The NASDAQ 100 is pushing above 18,000, and the S&P 500 is trading above 5,096, close to 5,100, up over half a percent.

04. The stock market doesn't look bubbly to billionaire investor Ray Dalio. That's exactly what I talked about in one of my previous videos. It's a bit funny that Dalio is voicing his opinion now, since another market expert and analyst had recently argued the markets are in a bubble. I said then that I don't believe they are. This market is being compared to the 1999 dot-com bubble, but the situation is very different. Many of the companies we've discussed have profitable earnings, revenue, and cash flows, so they don't look like bubble territory to me. They may trade at very premium, expensive valuations. Looking at them collectively, the whole market is a bit frothy and euphoric, with plenty of greed, but I see no real signs of a bubble.

05. Ray Dalio, founder of the hedge fund giant Bridgewater Associates, wrote in a LinkedIn post on Thursday that the bubble talk appears misplaced under his six-part checklist. The criteria for his bubble gauge are: prices high relative to traditional measures of value, such as the present value of future cash flows compared with interest rates; unsustainable conditions, such as many new and naive buyers drawn in because prices have risen; broad bullish sentiment; purchases heavily financed by debt; and forward-looking, speculative buying to bet on further price gains. He doesn't see much of that in the market right now. You could argue there's a lot of speculation in chip stocks, semiconductors, Nvidia, AMD, and other AI-infused companies. But broadly speaking, the euphoria and greed needed for a bubble aren't there, so I don't believe we're in one. This looks more reasonable than a view of a very overvalued, rich market.

06. By Dalio's equity bubble gauge, the market is currently in the middle of its range, at the 52nd percentile, a level not associated with past bubbles. The chart shows the US market bubble gauge. In 2022 we were in bubble territory, then a bear market deflated it, and now we're moving back higher, but nowhere close to those levels yet.

07. AMD pushed higher, up over 9%, on ramping up AI chip production, a significant move up for Advanced Micro Devices. More importantly, the inflation numbers came out. Personal income rose 0.3%... wait, let me be precise: personal consumption expenditure rose 0.2% month over month, in line with the 0.2% consensus. The price index rose 0.3% month over month, in line with expectations, and 2.4% year over year. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, also met expectations at 2.8%, still a bit above the Fed's target, but it's down from 2.9%, which shows progress.

08. Markets are pricing in three to four rate cuts in 2024, and as far as 2025 as well. The expectation is for the fed funds rate to fall from 5.25%-5.5% down to around 4.25%-4.5% by March 2025, so four rate cuts are priced in right now.

09. Technology, communication services, and several other sectors pushed higher, while healthcare, consumer defensive, financials, industrials, real estate, energy, and utilities pulled back. Yesterday was a very green day, driven by technology. Over the past week, consumer defensive and healthcare pulled back, though most sectors are still green. Over the past month, most sectors are green, with energy and communication services selling off. Cocoa prices pushed higher, coffee prices rose, feeder cattle and sugar prices were lower, Bitcoin pushed back above 61,000, and Ether is just over $3,300.

10. Volatility is low, with the VIX just under 14. We've watched the 12 to 15 range for a while, and the 11 to 12 level is important to watch. I'd like to start dollar-cost averaging more aggressively in the 15 to 18 to 20 range, and start being a bigger buyer as we move forward.

11. Crude oil is starting to push back up toward resistance around $79 to $80 a share. That's more concerning. If it breaks above $80 to $81, that becomes the next target and resistance, with strong support in the low $70s.

12. Bitcoin is just over 62,000 and keeps moving higher, but it's very overbought. It's approaching resistance at $69,000 to $70,000, close to its all-time high, with support in the green zone between $47,000 and $51,000. Ether is approaching resistance around $3,500 to $3,600, with strong support between $2,100 and $2,400, and its RSI is also very overbought.

13. I'll cover the technical analysis of individual stocks, including the Magnificent 7, FANG stocks, PayPal, Visa, and others, in a separate, more detailed video. This video was meant to keep things simple: a market update, where we're technically overbought, and the personal consumption and inflation numbers. Dalio's view and mine are fairly similar. This is still a market powered by generative AI, with a lot of euphoria, greed, and bullish momentum behind Magnificent 7 companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Google, Meta, and to some extent Apple. Salesforce also pushed up over 3%. These names are charging the market to new all-time highs, but participation from other sectors is lacking. This isn't a broad-based rally but a very concentrated one, so we need to be very cautious. At the same time, I'm raising more cash so I'm ready to deploy it if there's a pullback and become more aggressive with dollar-cost averaging.

14. Our newsletter comes out Sunday with a full analysis of inflation and interest rates, plus potential swing trading ideas. If you're interested in tradeable and investable opportunities, the link is below. Happy investing, and I'll see you in the next video.