저자: Karthik · 외국인
요약 보기
Nebius(NBIS) 주가가 실적 호조(2Q26 매출 5.8억 달러, 전년比 +454%)와 마이클 버리 숏 포지션 손실로 20% 이상 급등. 영업손실은 지속되나 비용 비율 개선 중이며, 2027년 매출 110억 달러 추정 시 PSR이 약 4배로 낮아진다고 주장. 단기 모멘텀 종목으로 보되 변동성·손실 위험을 강조하고 $229 지지, $295~296 신고가 목표를 제시.
다듬은 글
How's everyone doing? Here's Karthik from Money Vest. Let's talk about Nebius shares, which are up more than 20% today. Michael Burry's short positions are being absolutely destroyed, and that could be one of the reasons why it's up over 21% due to the "squeeze" it might be causing. $211 is the short selling price for Michael Burry and we'll talk a little bit about that too.
But Nebius shares surged 18% after its earnings beat estimates, also outperforming CoreWeave and Cloudflare. And Michael Burry might be helping a little with this momentum. So Michael Burry has, of course, attracted a lot of attention , since at the beginning of the month it was announced or at least revealed that he had a short position in Nebius at $212, the bet was on August 7.
And here we are 5 days later, the shares are now trading at $234 per share. I simply don't understand it. I really don't understand why Michael Burry is doing this. In other words, why are you like this? So much stress and anxiety with short positions and the success rate is so poor. Burry raised concerns about the company's execution risks, long-term lease commitments, and doubts about the durability of customer demand.
The revelation comes as Nebius has been expanding its AI cloud operations amid growing competition in the sector. And you know what's interesting about the market, right? It's fascinating that you can actually be right about the operation but be wrong at the time and be absolutely destroyed in the process.
Because when it comes to investing, especially when you're on the short side of the trade, you have to get both the direction and the exact timing right at the same time. And if you don't do it right, you're finished. You're absolutely finished. And we've seen this happen so many times with Michael Burry, as you know, shorting Nvidia , Oracle, Nebius, Tesla, Palantir.
So many companies that he has tried to short sell have simply held steady . They've simply gone... In any case, they've moved in the opposite direction. They've gone crazy on the upside. So, incredible numbers are coming from Nebius here. Revenues grow by more than 500%, 450% to be precise. Revenues of more than $582 million for the 3 months ending in June.
Second quarter of 2026, that's an increase from $105 million. That's an increase of 454%. For the 6 months ending in June, we are seeing almost one billion dollars in revenue. A year-on-year growth of 529% . That's an increase from the $156 million for the same period last year. These are absolutely astonishing numbers.
Because, I mean, this kind of explosive growth, there's no industry in the world right now that offers this kind of explosive growth, right? Although there was also a 333% increase in costs. The cost of revenue also increased to $237 million , but the big part of this puzzle was the reduction in the cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue.
So, in other words, gross profit is improving. Gross profit and gross margins expanded. The same applies to general, administrative, and sales expenses. This is huge. This is probably one of the reasons why NWYAS is rising so much, because revenue is increasing, but general, administrative, and sales expenses, and product development have fallen by half as a percentage of revenue.
So, 26%, that's a decrease from the 51% of the semester ending in June. General, administrative and sales expenses decreased from 83% to 32%. And then, total operating expenses as a percentage of revenue, of course, remain in operating loss. In other words, operating expenses continue to exceed revenue.
But they have dropped substantially from 240% to 131%. So, yes, things are improving. Depreciation and amortization rose 279% to $471 million due to all the infrastructure they are building. But things are moving in the right direction, aren't they? They are really heading towards profitability. Again, they won't be profitable until 2028 or 2029.
The market doesn't expect them to generate profits until then, but things are progressing in that direction, at least from what we can deduce from the figures we see. However, in terms of cash and cash equivalents, the company has just over $3.8 billion. That's the figure as of the end of June 2026.
We're talking about eight billion dollars in cash. Total current assets exceed 9.6 billion. And we're seeing total assets below $28 billion. Property, plant and equipment represent a large part of that. 50% is property, plant and equipment. That's 13 billion dollars. That's where much of that depreciation comes from.
And if we look at the debt, we have a non-current debt of just under $8.5 billion for the company. Therefore, total liabilities exceed 17.6 billion. Of that, more than 50% is debt, which is the non-current long-term debt that the company must pay. So we're seeing almost the same amount of cash as debt.
So again, it's not a terrible financial position, but this picture needs to be monitored carefully, because if the debt continues to grow rapidly and cash flows don't grow enough, that could be a bigger problem in the future. So it's something that we will, of course, evaluate. Revenue growth was very strong, and again, before continuing, be sure to leave a "like".
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I also made a video about Nebius 5 days ago. If you look at the financial statements, we see incredible quarterly growth over the last 8 quarters. You can see the exponential growth we have observed. Margins have improved, gross profit had a slight drop in the first quarter of 2026, but it's rising again because it separated from Yandex and operates independently in the US, right?
So that's a big part of the story, which, again , I discussed in my previous update. Now, in terms of the annualized run rate, we're looking at over $3 billion by the end of June 2026. That's a very solid annual revenue run rate . A 58% quarterly increase. Profitability measures, looking at adjusted EBITDA, turned positive at 236 million.
And the cash position stands at more than $8 billion in cash. It obtained approximately $775 million in its first asset-backed financing in July. It closed its strongest trading quarter to date, highlighted by four large AI cloud contracts averaging over $1 billion in TCV (total contract value) each, including deals with Cohere and Reflection AI.
Strong prices and prepayment conditions, also raising the guide for the whole year. Now we're looking at $3 to $4 billion, $3 to $3.4 billion in revenue for 2026, applied to a sales multiple of 10, we're talking about $34 billion. And right now the company's stock is trading significantly higher. We're talking about almost 60 billion dollars.
So, I mean, right now it's really trading at 20 times sales, right? Which is quite high. Well, but if you look towards 2027, however, that's where the story gets quite interesting because these data centers will become operational. Many of these gigawatts that are being supplied, uh, contracted energy, will be available for AI computing for many of these enterprise customers.
So, if you really delve into fundamental analysis and analyst estimates, take a look at where 2027 revenues will be. It's explosive. We are seeing a jump from 3.4 billion. This is exactly what they projected for this year, at more than 11 billion dollars. You know, that's what I 'm talking about. This is the fastest growing industry in the world right now.
No industry is increasing its gross revenue by more than 200%. So, that reduces that sales multiple from 20 to four. Literally below five, right? Which is, which is crazy. Absolutely crazy because a large part of that utility will go into operation for Nevius. And then, again, revenues are explosive here, but profits aren't, right?
It will still take some time to become truly profitable. The market does not expect them to be profitable until 2030 on a GAAP basis. So, this is something to keep in mind. We can't really calculate what the fair value might be, but price targets are all over the place. You have a low target of 129 and a high target of 410, and many of them in between.
So it's a pretty wide range of where those targets are for Nevius. Now, having said that, again, very, very strong technicals here with a very solid breakout on good volume thanks to Michael Burry, and the next target will be at all- time highs, at almost $300 for Nevius. 295, 296. We also have very strong support at 229 for Nevius.
So, this here will be that support up to a minimum of 140 for Nevius. So again, a lot of sideways consolidation and we're finally starting to see that breakout, and it's taking Corvive higher too. That is, Corvive reported yesterday. I also made a video about Corvive. So, be sure to check it out. But we are seeing a slight setback.
It's still up 18%. We have a void to fill here. $94, $95 will be the support level to watch for CoreWeave. But, Nebius, in my opinion, it's Nebius' day. I hope you enjoyed this video and the full update on this action. For me, I would treat them as momentum stocks worth watching from a trading perspective.
The long-term valuation remains high, but it falls very quickly if 2027 revenues are as good as analysts project and expect , but profitability remains an important issue, isn't it? I mean, this is one of those sectors where there is a lot of speculation, a lot of volatility, and a lot of uncertainty.
When there's a lot of speculation, volatility, and uncertainty, those three are key ingredients for momentum, right? To make money fast, right? You can win a lot, but you can also lose a lot. So, I would be very careful with how you operate this. This, in my opinion, is not a centrist position. This is not something you should put all your money into.
These are positions that, yes, you can trade, even invest in, but with an amount that you are comfortable losing and that you can afford. That's very important because it involves a risk. Wherever there is speculation, volatility, and uncertainty, there is also risk. Many people forget that. The fact that we see that performance on screen doesn't mean they can't fall, because they did fall, right?
If you look at CoreWeave from its all-time highs, you know, at 184, at one point the stock dropped a little over 65 %, right? Those are not small losses. These are losses that can empty your account. Nebius, at one point from its all-time highs, fell by just over 52%. It was reduced by half . So, they carry risk, they carry volatility.
That's something you should always keep in mind. Be sure to leave a "like" and subscribe to the channel. Again, the link will be below if you are interested in joining us. And I repeat, there is a 40% annual discount. As always, happy investing. See you all in the next video.
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