⚠️ Tom Lee's 2025 Warning for ALL Investors

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Tom Lee(CNBC 인터뷰 인용)는 2025년 상반기 S&P500 7,000 도달을 전망하며 하반기는 다소 보수적으로 봄. CEO 신뢰지수 50 회복, M&A 활성화 기대. 10년물 5%대 금리는 증시에 크게 해롭지 않다고 봤으나 진행자는 5% 이상이면 성장주에 부담이라 반박. 소형주는 지난 10년 S&P500 대비 크게 부진했으나 향후 3~5년 강세 가능성 언급. 진행자는 Moneyvest 지수와 변동성·RSI를 매수 타이밍 지표로 사용하며 하락장 매수 전략을 강조. 2024 옵션 포트폴리오 수익률 32% 소개.

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01. what's up everyone it's car money vest in this video we are going to be talking about Tom Le's latest interviews on CNBC and his entire expectations regarding whether the markets are in a bubble valuations small caps and talking about technology and a lot about interest rates and what the expectations are from S&P 500 going into 2025 and I'm also going to be sharing my views and my perspectives this is not going to be going over a lot of data but simply going over very high quality signals and things that I'm really watching going into this new year of 2025 so hope you all enjoyed this video find it helpful make sure that you subscribe and also do check out free videos that are available for all of you so this right here is my 2024 options portfolio final recap pretty much finishing the year with a 32% gain for this portfolio outperforming the S&P 500 by V over 67% so again you all you have to do is join for free this video is going to be available and there's one more this is in going over my entire 2024 recap not just for the options portfolio but for the other two portfolios as well long-term and both long-term growth and and Main fund as well as six lessons that I learned in 2024 that I think are going to be super helpful for you in your investing Journey so both of these videos I've made them completely free all you have to do is sign up with the link down below you can join and watch these videos for free free both of them nothing else there's literally no payment required to watch these videos if you're interested so this right here are all of my notes that I took from two videos that Tomley was on on CNBC last couple days and uh I really want to go over certain things that kind of stood out to me and uh again kind of Share My Views and also poke some holes because again this is very important because as we know the Tomley uh is almost always bullish on the market considering the last 200 years the markets have been up over 75% of the times and so if you are more bullish and more optimistic than bearish your likelihood for success is significantly more and better than if you are bearish like Michael bur so first thing he says there is a lot of Tailwinds in um in building Tailwinds building for markets in 2025 he also talks about now we're not worrying about the FED worrying about inflation bringing the economy to a halt so basically talking about uh 2025 being a very very strong year and expecting for the S&P 500 to get up to over 7,000 uh in the first half of 2025 so that's pretty much the Target that he's put together on S&P 500 in the first half however the second half he is SK still a little bit more skeptical uh considering the markets are actually going to be closing lower than where we are from 7,000 onwards uh he's also watching the CEO confidence going into 2025 he's expecting that number will restore and recover back over 50 essentially restoring confidence with the new Administration uh and he also Goes On by saying that we have seen a lot of capital that's sitting on the sidelines and m&a activity so mergers and Acquisitions will pick up which will help equities in 2025 as well the treasury yields now this is actually quite interesting he says a treasury yields over above at 5% even then it's not going to be damaging to the markets which I'm not so sure if that is going to hold up uh with the markets because at over 5% says that you're paying 20 times for a 10-year bond and that is actually a very very good rate for a 10-year treasuries like you know think about it this way it's not just investors wanting to beat the market I think that's one thing that everyone has to understand that there's a lot of different types of Market participants uh in in the stock market it's not just people wanting to beat the s&p500 right so we always kind of look at investing as oh did you beat the market did you beat the S&P 500 but a a lot of times you'll notice some of the bigger Pension funds and endowment funds that are University institutional endowment funds they're not looking to beat the market if they do great but they can also be looking to beat what inflation some of these funds they literally just want to grow faster than inflation that's it they don't want their purchasing power to be evaporated by inflation and so if the 10year bond is giving you a 5% 5 a half% return inflation's at 2.5 or 3% your real net return after infl inflation is still 2 percentage points over and above which is fantastic right so you're still able to grow Capital at 2% post inflation that for many P Pension funds endowment funds is a steal and so interest rates on the treasury yields at 10 year 20 year 30y year bonds if it gets up to over 5% in my personal opinion could very well be damaging for equities for growth stocks we're already starting to see the effects of that as interest rates are hovering around 4.5 4.6% and so I have to disagree with a little bit there from Tomley that at 5% it may not be damaging to the market now he also says that it's not clear why the yields are rising right so they could be rising uh because of a robust economy it could be inflation uh it could be that markets are concerned around incoming policies of the new Administration around tariffs so there's a lot of different reasons why interest rates could be rising however the US has seen many companies make bets in the right places and right that's really what's caused the United States to be very very dominant player in the global markets I mean the US market have been the best performing markets uh globally and the US tech dominance is literally unmatched because if you look at some of the biggest companies in the German Dax or in the footsie 100 in the UK I mean all put together even those are not comparable to Apple or Nvidia so just you know over a $50 trillion market value for US Stocks again just goes to show how strong the US economy and the markets are and at some point he says the valuations become a liability when Market isn't able to be surprised and this is actually actually literally spot on from Tom Lee I've talked about this in one of my previous paler videos I mentioned that if there is expectations that are really high and the markets are not able to be surprised right so if you're not able to surprise the market with the reality what does that do that creates disappointment right so always remember with investing and in life if you are expecting the moon and you get something less than the moon the reality is not as as high as the moon you're going to be disappointed but you're expecting nothing and you get the moon you're going to be pleasantly surprised and so markets are nothing but you know just a understanding of whether we're getting surprised or whether we're getting disappointed whether it's a good surprise or a bad bad surprise or a bad shock and so valuations do become a problem eventually right it becomes a liability if the markets are not able to be surprised I.E are disappointed and and he says that we're not there yet this is not a market which he would say is in a bubble so he says that we're not in a bubble yet we're not there yet uh however valuation is not a problem just yet and he says the last few years investors were underpaying for technology and Innovation and 2025 he says is the year we're going to find out the AI application is going to rearchitecturing the entire technology in 2025 which is artificial intelligence take gone another step forward so that that was kind of like some of the things he mentioned finally he says small caps have underperformed against the S&P 500 uh by 91% in the last decade this was the second worst performance since 1900s uh and the last three worst instances that you see for small caps kind of this level of underperformance the next 3 to 5 years have been very bullish for small caps so in other words he says that we've discounted a lot of bad news into small caps are trading at 10 times forward price Runnings multiple and the probabilities are very high for small caps to do well going into 2025 because of how oversold and how disconnected they are from the reality so you know going into 2025 my one of my big ETFs that I will probably be trading and will probably run the wheel strategy and might might even you know take a lot of trades on is TNA uh I do believe that small caps have a ton of potential I exited out of my iwm for a 17% profit you know I I think I did the right choice because it was really trading sideways and I I want to have a little bit more exposure leveraged exposure to small caps if there is potential in 2025 so TNA kind of offers that opportunity but again huge risk disclaimer I want of flash warning signs uh be careful with this because it is leveraged three times so of course it can go up by three times it can also go down by three times so I think that's it's really important to have proper risk management and trade management if you are looking at something like TNA now finally coming over to something that is very very important for my decision- making as I've already mentioned and that's going to be the money vest index combined with our volatility understanding as well as S&P 500's RSI reading which is a little bit of a market breath uh indicator helping us understand the market conditions whether we're oversold or overbought and just getting us to a market temperature that's really what it is as I mentioned this before from Howard marks from Peter Lynch from a lot of great investors what do they do they look at the present moment and they try to understand the market temperature are we overbought oversold are we overvalued undervalued are we expensive or cheap are we in Euphoria or fear that is the entire idea behind cutting out all the noise and focusing on high quality no BS signals and that's what the money vest index and that's what volatility really provides us and so you can go back do some back testing look at 2024 look at 2023 every time you've seen those buy signals get triggered those have been nothing but great buying opportunities the risk reward profile has been fantastic you go back track the S&P 500 alongside this index you can actually do that over here so this is the S&P 500's uh money vest index also on trading View and then you compare that to the S&P 500 over here uh and you'll notice every single time we've been in that yellow or green zone has been a good buying opportunity because the markets have been down let's say 8% or a little bit of a dip of 4% this right here a dip of about 3% uh this right here a dip of about 5 1 12% right so you get the idea when we do get these prolonged bare markets like we did in 2022 uh we will still see some burst of upside momentum 5% move to the upside this right here 4.7% move to the upside and then eventually of course increasing by 7% and then rest his history getting back up to all-time Highs but even then you get a lot of really good buying triggers buying opportunities to deploy Capital into so a lot of people when they ask me like you know when's the good time to buy like is this a good buying opportunity it's all about assessing the risk and reward in the market and we also we also have a different spreadsheet that helps us understand the percentiles for how many times the markets are actually down 5 10 20 30 and 50% from their all-time highs so in other words when the markets are in a different threshold right so if you come over a market snapshot right now for example if I show you the S&P 500 is in a dip what does that mean it simply means that we're down more than 1% from alltime Highs but less than 5% a dip means that we're down less than 5% from alltime highs the moment we cross over five but less than 10 we are in a pullback like the Dow is right so Dow Jones uh is in a pullback but the moment we go over 10% but less than 20 we are now in an official correction right so correction is anything over 10% but less than 20 and every time you're down over 20% we are in now what's called an official bare market like a lot of stocks are like for example AMD Qualcomm ad they're all in a bare market and every time we're down over 50% we are in an official crash right that's when stocks are going to be down like 60 70% and it's going to feel like the sky is falling apart and there's going to be just a ton of opportunities in the market and that's what this index helps us track it's basically helping us track all these great risk reward ratios and the buying opportunities in the market and that's what I'm going to be doing is when the markets come down when the risk reward gets better I'm simply going to close my eyes follow my money vest index and literally just take advantage of those buying opportunities so that's it that's all for this video I would really encourage you to cut out all the noise there's going to be a lot of fear-mongering a lot of recession calls a lot of uh just unnecessary noise in the market but focus on quality focus on literally just taking a step back evaluating the market structure understanding the market temperature are we overbought oversold are we overvalued undervalued expensive cheap how is the market sentiment Euphoria versus fear versus panic versus greed so that is really what's going to help you separate yourself from the crowd and so if you want to get access to all of this 2024 was a blockbuster year for us links going to be down below these are free videos you can join and watch 2024 options portfolio update as well with the entire final recap uh links going to be down below if you're interested in joining us and again if you have any questions my door's always open message me email me text me I'm always available to answer your questions and help you through your journey of investing and trading in 2024 that's why I'm putting out a lot of free content on patreon now as well so links going to be down below as as always happy investing I'll see you all in the next video