저자: Scotti · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체 섹터 전체를 개관하며 NVDA·AMD·ASML·SMCI를 모멘텀과 밸류에이션 기준으로 기회로 제시하고, QCOM·ON Semi를 상대적 저평가 가치주로 언급. 반면 MU는 향후 매출·이익 감소 전망으로 제외, AVGO는 밸류에이션 부담으로 자제. 주가 레벨 기준 지지/저항도 제시.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's Scotti with money vest so in today's video we are going to be taking a look at all chip stocks semiconductor stocks collectively I'm going to break down the revenues the earnings the fundamentals we'll talk a little bit about valuations their balance sheet the cash flows a very quick overview and a summary of most semiconductors and Chip stocks because this seems to be the hottest sector in the market right now and I'm going to do a separate more dedicated technical analysis on each company so that you can plan your trades appropriately we're going to talk about them in of course uh on an aggregate basis and of course on an individual bases as well as always if you enjoy this video and find it helpful make sure that you drop a like and please don't forget to subscribe to the channel I would really appreciate that and links to our Discord and patreon i and of course getting access to to all the members only private videos including trade alerts and trade ideas the first week of the month is the best time to join and of course you will have access to our money vest.com platform here towards the end of this month where we do have the early beta launch for all the members only so Link's going to be down below for you to join and of course participate in our launch here and we love to have you on board and also do connect with me on Instagram my handle is going to be cwrp so this right here is the companies are in question now all of them belong to different uh sort of uh processes within the semiconductor sector as we are already aware uh you know of course it starts with uh The Foundry business which is responsible for manufacturing and the development of chips then there's chip designers there's equipment providers there's integrated circuit providers there's you know companies that are specifically designing for 5G iot and there's companies focusing on CPUs and gpus but all of them have pretty significant exposure in artificial intelligence a lot of them are very very very important to the entire semiconductor ecosystem so on this list I've got Nvidia broadcom AMD Intel Qualcomm Texas Instruments super micro computer ON Semiconductor asml and Micron I know there's a few more that I'm probably missing so this is not an exhaustive list by any means but I wanted to obviously break down this entire industry this entire sector in a more broader sense and then we'll dive into some of the more individual stocks here we'll talk about valuation so this could be a little bit of a longer video because we are kind of compiling all the analysis for about 8 to nine stocks here in this one video so as we already know Nvidia is kind of like the leader and the king of the semiconductor sector here 1.95 almost $2 trillion market cap broadcom is also a pretty big player with over 600 billion doll market cap AMD more recently crossed over 300 billion that's a record for the company after breaking out over 9% yesterday Intel has definitely struggled in the last 10 years 182 billion Qualcomm is one of the few compan compan in the semiconductor sector which I do still believe happens to be a little bit more undervalued relatively speaking compared to some of the other stocks on the list here Texas Instruments also about $152 billion also in my opinion has a lot of potential upside left smci incredibly overbought has already 10x this was one of the stocks that we talked about last year very much under the radar back then of course not so much anymore it's very much mainstream ON Semiconductor of $33 billion asml one of my favorite stocks one of my favorite companies in the semiconductor chip sector based out of the Netherlands 370 billion had a fantastic trade on this stock here and of course Micron at about 100 billion which I also believe has a ton of potential U moving forward so that's kind of like the breakdown of all the companies of the names that I just mentioned my favorites of course are Nvidia but at a better price I feel like $2 trillion is just insane for NVIDIA AMD is my second best favorite stock in the semiconductor sector for those of you whove been following me for a long time if we've made a lot of money on AMD in the past it's one of my best picks for semiconductors and chips asml would be my third stock that's my favorite smci was very good under the radar from last year but very much mainstream and too overcrowded at the moment right now so if you come down and let's just dive right into the fundamentals of these companies so again if you take a look at the one-year return year-to date more specifically Nvidia you know is one of the best ones smci obviously being the best one 204% gain on a year to-day basis then of course Nvidia at almost 60% then we got AMD at 30% and then we also do have asml at 25 26% so the three and four that I mentioned here very very strong growth Micron underperformance 6% gain on semi definitely down about 5 a half% on the year Texas Instruments is down 1% Intel down 14% uh and course broadcom is up 16.5% which again is very respectable growth and Qualcomm is also up almost 10% year to date so definitely smci asml AMD and Nvidia four of these companies including broadcom in the mix doing really well on a year- to-day basis other stocks are basically flat to slightly down on the year now this right here is the valuation okay now this is where things are going to become very very subjective and this is where I want your guys's opinion in the comment section and which stocks among these that you believe is kind of fairly priced and reasonably valued in the markets right now and I'll be very honest Qualcomm is actually one of those companies that I find to be very very attractive these levels asml not anymore I mean it's already rallied almost 100% since my video from a few months ago when I was talking about buying it in the 500s it's gone up to over $900 per share smci uh you know now trading at almost 40 times earnings multiple on a non-gap basis here uh when I first started looking at this stock it was trading at about 10 to 12 times earnings you go back to the video from back in March and February of last year we were talking about this at around 10 12 earnings multiple uh Intel there's practically no growth in this stock so that's one of the reasons why I've never really been interested in Intel in the first place it's got a big shift it's got a big big sort of transition coming on board with The Foundry business that they are building in you know parts of the US kind of competing with uh you know tsmc which by the way is not part of this list for a very specific reason we'll talk about this in another video but Advanced Micro Devices considering the rally of over 150% so if you come over to Advanced Micro Devices you'll notice that you know it's pretty much gone from $90 $93 up over 112% so it's practically more than doubled and as a result the valuation really gone up and Nvidia here I mean one could argue that 32 33 times earnings is not bad but I will highlight that the earnings expectations are really high for NVIDIA I mean they are expected to you know generate north of 40 to 50 billion do in net income uh for a company that wasn't even doing close to $30 billion in Revenue just a couple years ago so they have really accelerated that business very very fast and as we know what happens very quickly you know it's kind of like a fast burning fire um you know is it going to be lasting super long that is still yet to see but right now the optimism and the Euphoria around nvidia's earnings and growth and revenue is very very high so just got to be super careful and cautious here not saying that 32 times earnings is bad in fact quite reasonable for the company than what it offers but I just feel like if the earnings expectations come down because a lot of these companies here are not going to just sit back and like let Invidia have all the market share in AI there's going to be competition from AMD there's going to be competition from Qualcomm smci you know on semi of course they are part of the different sort of ecosystem they they belong to different segments of the entire semiconductor ecosystem but I feel like there is going to be competition which is going to drive down some of that return on Capital and profit potential here as well so again you know price of sales we're looking at 32 time sales for NVIDIA which is insanely high like 32 time sales is what investors are willing to pay for NVIDIA here 32 times sales on a trailing basis if you take a look at forward Enterprise Value to sale 172 even that is incredibly incredibly High we got broadcom of 12.6 AMD just a little bit under 12 Intel cheap for a different reason considering that you know the growth is really stagnant it's not really growing Revenue in fact it's declining Qualcomm as I mentioned earlier still relatively much better at five times sales 16 14 16 times earnings we got Texas Instruments at just under 10 smci 3.3 times sales I mean one could argue that even this stock is reasonably priced here but again expectations have skyrocketed for smci also along with Nvidia uh on semi 4.6 I find that to be reasonable asml kind of on par with broadcom and AMD 12.2 and we got Micron at a little bit over 4.6 at the moment so you scroll down a little bit and then if you take a look at the compounded annual growth rate on a forward basis 3E and 5ye we're looking at 39% for NVIDIA 11 1.5% for broadcom 28% for AMD which is also very respectable and very good Intel expected to obviously de decline Qualcomm at over 11% so makes a lot of sense why it's trading at a much cheaper valuation relative to AMD and Nvidia smci at almost 20% we got on semi at 7% and ASM little over 20% and of course Micron declining a little bit over 12% which is exactly why Micron is not a stock that I'm personally considering because it is expected decline in revenues and profitability over the coming years um and then of course if you scroll down a little bit further margin wise I mean they are somewhat on par Intel definitely struggling a little bit when it comes to uh the bottom line margin of 177% am AMD also at 17% Nvidia is absolute beast at over 56% smci at over 9 Tex instruments 48 Qualcomm at just under 30 on semi at just under 39 and ASM A little over 35 as well so again we can go kind of go on and on and talk a lot about these companies and when it comes to the balance sheet nvidia's got an excellent balance sheet net debt of just about $15 billion so significantly more cash than debt on the balance sheet AMD is very similar broadc not the best it's got more debt than cash on the balance sheet Intel same story Qualcomm just about $3.4 billion of debt that is more than the cash amount Texas Instruments at 3.2 and we got smci also with a negative net debt asml also with a negative net debt that's one of the reasons why I was so attracted towards AMD and asml and smci in the first place is because of a very good balance sheet with lots of growth potential but again as much as I love these companies we just cannot ignore the valuation right that's one of the things that I've taught on this channel for time and time again is that you can find an excellent investment you can find a great company but if you're overpaying for it if you're trading at the wrong price then just doesn't matter because price is what dictates your future returns think about the people that have actually bought as MCI recently right are they going to 10x from here or should have should have they bought the stock one year ago that would have been a much better price to pay for the stock right price dictates everything price determines your future returns so regardless of how great the company is regardless how uh you know favorable that stock might be regardless of how you feel about that company and how attached you might feel to that particular investment please make sure that you do not overpay for that asset do not pay overpay for that investment do not overpay for that stock or that house or whatever it is that you're buying always look for deals always look for deals our job is to always look and hunt for good deals so you know considering all these companies this is the conclusion that I've come down to Nvidia asml smci and AMD these are four stocks among the list of the universe of these companies here here that have the best momentum right they've got the best momentum they're the ones that are performing the best I mean if you take a look at one year returns smci 749 AMD 145% Nvidia up 240% and asml is up about 54 55% and then you know Micron also up 54% but when it comes to better value for money um you know I would argue that Qualcomm is one looking that you can look it into that that I'm going to be looking into because I feel like it's still trading at relatively decent valuation um and then of course if you take a look at on semi but the only problem is that on semi doesn't have a significantly high growth rate when it comes to the long-term trajectory so you know 5year ker is about 7% which is pretty average 16% on a three-year basis and it's right now trading at about 15 to 18 times earnings with a price of sales uh trading at a little bit over four so on semi and Qualcomm I would say there's opportunity that where you can find value for money smci asml AMD and Nvidia are very good solid potential tradeable opportunities at least at least right now considering how much they've pushed higher um but they're still very very overbought here I'm going to go over the technicals in just a minute um and I personally would kind of stay away right now from Micron from uh Intel of course and maybe broadcom as well because broadcom as much as the growth is decent on a 5year basis 11.4% it just doesn't justify trading at around you know 20 25 times earnings multiple price of Sal is trading at a little bit over 15 right so that's that's to me it's a little bit higher multiple that I'm paying paying for a growth that I can find Elsewhere for significantly cheaper valuation so that is how I would look at these companies at the moment so if you come over to the technicals as we have already discussed AMD here almost $200 per share breaking out from this symmetrical triangle very very strong move to the upside same thing with Nvidia hitting a new all-time high almost every day almost at $800 so all of them are incredibly overbought at the moment same thing with asml you know it's trading pretty much at over $950 very overbought has seen a massive from low 500s from back in October it's gone up over 67 68% and then of course smci also in the same boat trading at overbought levels very very significant rallies uh to the upside about over $866 if you come over to broadcom here uh it's also seen a massive move to the upside a little bit of that negative Divergence that continues uh and I would be watching a very strong support here for broadcom at about $1,167 so that is going to be that level to watch and below that we're going to be paying attention to another support at 1,36 per share for this company Qualcomm we've also discussed in the past on our channel so this right here was a lot of consolidation sideways and finally breaking out from low 100s in fact I think I did a video on Qualcomm talking about how Qualcomm is one of the best buying opportunities from a sort of reasonably valued priced stock uh in the low 100s in fact my fair value was in the low 100s and it's valued over 51% from those levels now coming up to that resistance of course there is a negative Divergence so I'd be a lot careful here and 137 down to 27 would be a much better price for me personally on qualcom on semi still maybe has more potential upside here we've got a huge resistance to watch at around here at close to $86 so that is going to be that resistance and a very very strong support sitting roughly at 6566 per share also another support sitting all the way down to $59 $60 per share so the lower the better and maybe there is potential for a head and shoulders over here left shoulder head and a potential right shoulder with a neckline sitting right over here at $66 so if you do break down in the low 60s that would be an ideal price for me to start looking into on semi um as well so hope you all enjoyed this video and a complete breakdown on a lot of these stocks here I know it's going to be a bit bit of a longer video and we weren't able to cover all of them but I will continue to kind of do these sector analysis where we break down different sectors for example energies defensives Comm Services semiconductors artificial intelligence cyber security so there's going to be separate videos dedicated to each sector and Industry that I'm sure are going to super valuable uh as well so hope you all enjoy this video found it helpful make sure you drop a like subscribe to the channel as always happy investing I'll see you all in the next video
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