저자: K · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500·나스닥·매그니피선트7이 과매수 상태로 위험보상비율이 불리하다며 조정 가능성을 제시. S&P는 4,600~4,800(7~8% 조정), 4,100~4,250(18% 조정) 지지 언급, 나스닥은 14,000~14,500·12,400~12,800 지지 언급. 연준 금리인하 기대 축소와 연착륙 확률(약 50%)에 신중론. 현금 비중 확대 및 TSLA 커버드콜 매도 등 리스크 관리 병행. 자신은 VUG·SMH·CIB·IBIT를 정기 적립 매수 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
what's up everyone it's K with money vest so in this video wanted to go over Jamie Diamond's uh expectations for the economy and the markets and interest rates and also go over the uh technical analysis of course on the S&P and the NASDAQ as well in a little bit more detail I have recently started a brand new Weekly Newsletter for all the members that are part of our money vest Community because uh as much as these videos are super helpful and super valuable I also want to put out weekly newsletters that is going to basically be a compilation of all the research all the analysis done by myself and I will be sharing my analysis my opinions of best tradable and investable opportunities in the market as well as really important levels critical areas to watch on the S&P the NASDAQ the Russell 2000 the Dow Jones and magnificent 7 and will continue to include more and more and more data points for you to Simply read this newsletter on every Sunday so every every Sunday this is going to be released I just released the first one as a very simple draft for everyone this morning and uh let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below because again everyone consumes data and information in different ways uh and again these videos are going to continue but this is going to be a good sort of text based analysis for all the members to read on the weekend as I said every Sunday is when I'm going to release this with a lot more data points and stuff to read now this right here is from today so this is the money vest newsletter which you can access again Link's going to be down below in our patreon I'm going to be posting this in our Discord so I basically posted this in our Discord earlier this morning going over how we're going to be including more and more stuff right now this is a four-page newsletter which basically goes over I'll go over this in just a minute but this is essentially a pullback overd exhaustion rally and in this newsletter I basically talk about the S&P 500 of course continues to trade at an all-time high uh trading within the context of this higher high and higher low pattern with an overbought RSI on the weekly time frame at about over 73 and this right here is a more likely potential pullback opportunity for the S&P which is going to represent about a 7 to 8% uh realistic pullback and that's going to bring us down to the first area of support between 46 and 4,800 and the second target which is a little bit unlikely which I don't believe is going to actually happen unless of course we see a significant shift in the overall Market sentiment and more likely it require a big Catalyst to push S&B down 900 points that's going to be about 41 to 4250 that's going to be that next Target and going to be about an 18% pullback or pretty much almost a correction for the S&P from its all-time Highs but it is going to happen in my opinion it's just a question of when that's going to happen same thing with the NASDAQ a little bit of a different analysis of course almost approaching that all-time Highs at 16,200 um and a reasonable correction of about 10 to 11% is not off the table and that's going to bring us down to that first area of support between 14,000 and 14,500 that's the sr1 that support range one and the second one's going to be 12,400 to as much as 12,800 as well with the RSI of course very similar to what we have already witnessed in the past so the conclusion as discussed in our videos markets are clearly overbought from a technical perspective that does not mean there's no more upside left in fact it's important to note that the bullish momentum is very strong and the overall Market sentiment is optimistic however the charts clearly denote an unfavorable risk reward trade-off here at these prices that is to say that the markets could keep pushing higher but the potential downside risk far outweigh the potential upside benefit so that is what we are here to discuss again risk reward and that indeed is unfavorable at these levels considering how overbought we currently are and anyone can really spot these anyone who's understand technicals for a long time understands the risk reward is not that favorable and that's what's discussed here in this newsletter now when it comes to magnificent 7 the technical setup here this is a index that I've created on trading view this is all magnificent 7 stocks combined hitting a new all-time high and this index particularly is sitting at just over 2,300 at an all-time high again very very over bought aai of over 79 on the back of AI and most of these gains have been contributed by Nvidia of course up 600% meta up 400% Amazon up 100% Microsoft up 88% Google here up 60% since October 2022 uh but again we are trading at pretty much at very very extreme levels and uh this right here 22 1.5% potential correction is on the table something that we could expect again the downside potential risk here far outweighs the potential upside benefit and that is exactly why it represents an unfavorable risk reward ratio not saying the markets can go higher that's not the purpose of this newsletter or this analysis this is not to here to make a prediction markets can indeed continue to drift higher and higher all I'm saying and kind of addressing here is that the potential downside risk here of whatever this is 18 to 20% far outweighs the potential upside benefit which could be let's say 5% another 7% maybe another 10% so that right there the risk reward is not that favorable we always want to look for positive risk reward Where We Are making let's say a couple dollars and we're only risking 50 cents or a dollar right now going long or going sort of uh basically long here at these prices and buying at these prices essentially means that we have a bigger downside risk versus a very limited upside potential considering how much we've already rallied so that's basically the whole idea here uh and call to action and again I'm only sharing this once with all the members here on YouTube but this is going to be preserved for all the members on patreon and all of our money vest members and that's going to be a weekly thing so every Sunday I'm going to be putting out you know five six Pages newsletter just like this going over the technicals going over macros going over inflation data volatility you know jobless claims fed's balance sheet the bond auctions everything there's going to be a lot more details here that I'm going to be going over in our future newsletters so it's going to be a nice little sort of a thing that you can read every Sunday and be prepared for the upcoming week now this right here the CTA the call of to action is also going to be there so I really want this newsletter to provide you with very actionable uh recommendations at the end of the day again none of this is financial advice so please make sure that you do your own due diligence but I will continue to dollar cost average in weekly into vug SMH CIB and ibit these are four ETFs that I'm currently buying and doing my experiment on increasing my cash exposure by doing the following number one selling options actually sold Tesla covered calls this morning already got end phase covered calls that are out of the money profitable 60 to 70% my options win rate is really high because I'm mostly focusing on selling options second increasing my savings rate so whatever income or Revenue that I'm generating I'm increasing the amount of money that I'm saving right now and third is drisking away from overweight positions so if there's any positions that I'm currently overweight on that are above my target allocation I will be looking to De risk away from those and that's part of the rebalancing of the entire portfolio as well by taking profits off the table this allows me to be ready for when we do get a pullback or a correction in the markets and to be more aggressive and start hunting for deals once again and finally I do provide magnificent 7 very important levels so overall when it comes to the trend Microsoft is in an uptrend support resistance over here 384 and 421 and risk reward potential here Longs at 36 66 and 340 so these are levels that I'm particularly watching to start let's say going long at swing trading perspective and also from a dollar cost averaging perspective uh from a long-term basis here Tesla clearly in a downtrend but support 175 to 200 resistance right now at 200 pretty much because it's been kind of hovering in that $200 range Longs at 180 Target price up to 240 here Amazon in an uptrend 155 support 176 resistance Longs at 143 and 121 and you get the idea so this right here I just wanted to share this very quickly and what we are working on and this is going to be a money best newsletter sent out every week on Sunday for all the members to read and there's going to be a lot more data a lot more stuff that we're very excited to include as part of this entire newsletter anyway so going back over to the uh fed's interest rate expectations so Market's obviously now pricing in only four rate Cuts in 2024 and 2025 so so far in 2024 1 two and three rate cuts are priced in and going into 2025 another additional rate cut uh this right here is Jamie Diamond he is saying that cautious about everything as he sees risk to a soft landing and he basically said that uh uh there are things out there which are kind of concerning and he disagreed with the high level of probability being assigned to the economy missing a recession he says the market is kind of pricing in a soft Landing that may very well happen but the market odds are 70 to 80% I'll give you half of that that's all basically saying the 50% probability that we get a soft landing and it's always a mistake to look at just the year because all these factors we talk about since just quantitative tightening fiscal spending deficits that politics those things take multiple years to play out uh but they will play out and they will have an effect and in my mind I'm just kind of cautious about everything and he also said that he doesn't expect a replay of some of the other serious downturns in the US economy has faced such as the 0708 financial crisis that saw Wall Street of course plung as Banks were hit with a Fallout with a suprime mortgage industry collapse higher interest rates along with the recession could hit areas such as commercial real estate Regional Banks but within limited macroeconomic impacts is also what he says and he said that we we have recession yes it'll get worse if we don't have a recession I think most people will be able to muddle through this part of this is just a normalization process rates were so low for so long if rates go up we have a recession and there will be real estate problems and some banks will have a much bigger real estate problem than others uh and again before any crash it fell great uh and Jamie Diamond is insold on the good news coming out of the US economy saying it may prove a precursor of a recession as well of course as economic uh conditions can to be super tight but there are many people who believe that this is just a precursor for a potential recession over in the US now one of the things that I've always mentioned on the channel something that I have talked about before is that you always want to be prepared right so the thing that we don't do on the channel is make predictions I'm not here to tell you what's going to happen whether there's going to be a recession or not yes we can assign certain probabilities based on the current market environment and what we kind of witness in the overall economy but at the end of the day I want you all to be prepared for all scenarios if you feel the markets are frothy if you feel there's a lot of euphoria if you feel there's a lot of greed start saving some cash you know create that emergency fund and start putting some cash on the sidelines so you can indeed take advantage of those opportunities if and when they actually do come and the markets do start seeing that pullback and that correction if nothing happens that's okay too right you're not going to find and track down all opportunities it's okay to miss certain opportunities from time to time I feel a lot of people get hung up on the missed opportunities that they become blind to Future opportunities so it's really important to understand that in the market in investing and traing in everything that we do in life are not going to be able to capture all opportunities in front of us there's going to be opportunities that we miss and there's going to be opportunities that we take but the bottom line is that you want to be in the game long enough to realize that you can't just get fixated on a missed opportunity and go all in on the next opportunity and then get bped out and the next thing you know you're no longer in the game one of the things that I learned from Howard marks was stay in the game long enough until the odds finally fall in your favor and you're able to take advantage of the opportunities that are presented to you so again if there is a recession if there is no recession if there is let's say a potential pullback or correction in the market we need to be ready regardless of what happens in the market so take these headlines with a grain of salt yes there's going to be views there's going to be probabilities there's going to be different assumptions but the bottom line is we need to be prepared regardless of whether there is a recession or not whether the markets do pull back or not and this is exactly what this news that it kind of helps us understand is that okay right now the risk reward is not that favorable I much rather kind of increase my cash exposure a little bit if the markets pull back fantastic I was already ready for it if the markets don't that's also fine because I'm mostly invested in the markets anyway 70 to 80% exposure long on the market so I'm able to take advantage of those opportunities in the meantime I'm going to be selling options to generate some cash so that's the whole idea again links going to be down below keeping it super simple very straightforward and this newsletter is going to be able to provide you with some very actionable stuff that you can take decisions on as always happy investing and I'll see you all in the next
Comments 0