저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
암호화폐 겨울은 끝나가며 주식시장은 이미 바닥을 쳤다는 주장. 이란 합의 기대로 유가 하락, 변동성 완화, VIX 20 이하 등을 근거로 강세장이 2028년까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 이더리움은 토큰화와 에이전틱 AI 수요로 단기 저점 이후 6만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 장기 목표 제시. 스폰서 광고 구간 포함.
다듬은 글
I think the crypto winter is over and now is the time to think about the next cycle. I think there are many things driving this next cycle and I think Ethereum's going to be one of the main characters of that up cycle. You might say, "Well, Tom, I'm not convinced cuz look at what happened to oil." Well, oil surged from 68 to 120, but notice it's actually declined to under $100 now.
In fact, uh if you look at the oil future prices, they barely budged. If we clear this Middle East problem and the US economy holds up through higher oil, uh I think we're going to look at a bull market that could run through 2028. So, a major major move in equities. So, that's the setup and that's why I think Ethereum's probably on its way to 60,000.
The global economy may have just stepped back from the edge. According to multiple reports, the White House is now closing in on a one-page agreement with the Iran designed to halt fighting, reopen nuclear negotiations, and gradually unwind the economic and military campaign that pushed the Middle East dangerously close to a broader regional conflict.
Since the reports started making waves, oil prices have collapsed below $96 a barrel. Nasdaq futures have exploded to brand new all-time highs. Bitcoin has surged past $82,000 and investors across the world have suddenly started betting on something almost nobody expected this quickly. The possible end of the US-Iran war escalation that has been threatening global energy markets for weeks.
And the details of the proposed deal explain exactly why markets reacted so violently. Under the reported framework, Iran would agree to pause uranium enrichment, accept renewed UN nuclear inspections, and place restrictions on underground nuclear facilities. In exchange, the United States would begin easing sanctions, release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and gradually loosen restrictions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil shipping routes on the planet.
The proposal would reportedly begin with a 30-day negotiation period, during which Iran's shipping restrictions and the US naval blockade would slowly be rolled back, while both sides attempt to prevent the situation from spiraling back into direct conflict. But, the most important part of this entire story may not even be the politics.
It's what this means for energy markets and the global economy. For weeks, traders feared that escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could choke global oil supply chains, drive inflation sharply higher again, and push already fragile economies toward another major slowdown. That fear is exactly why oil previously surged toward $120 a barrel.
But, now with reports suggesting restrictions around Hormuz could ease and military tensions may cool, Brent crude suddenly crashed more than 8% marking the first drop below $100 in 2 weeks. In other words, markets are beginning to price in the possibility that the worst-case energy crisis scenario may be avoided.
And that's exactly why Tom Lee's latest presentation at Paris Blockchain Week is suddenly getting so much attention. Because while most investors were still panicking over war headlines, collapsing sentiment, and another crypto downturn, Lee argues that this entire sell-off may have been setting the stage for the next major bull market.
He believes the crypto winter is already ending, the stock market may have already bottomed, and Ethereum could become one of the biggest winners of the next global liquidity cycle, rising as high as $62,000 before 2028. If you enjoy macro analysis, crypto market updates, and high conviction investment discussions like this, make sure to like the an update.
Thanks, and enjoy the video. Buy $10,000 of Bitcoin on a regular exchange, it grows to $60,000. That $50,000 profit, you could owe $10,000 or more in capital gains tax. Now, do the same trade inside a Roth IRA with iTrustCapital. That growth, tax-free. You keep the full $50,000. Same crypto, completely different outcome.
iTrustCapital lets you hold crypto in a self-directed IRA, trade 24/7, and secure your assets with institutional grade custody. You can also hold gold, silver, and stake certain assets. Real US customer support. $100 bonus when you fund through the link below. In crypto, structure beats timing every time.
First, let's start with the conversation about uh this crypto winter. And I think, you know, it's been uh you know, painful a bear market since October, but something that is unusual is that this is the first crypto winter that's happened without a stock market bear market. So, let me explain. Ethereum is down 65% since October.
Uh obviously a painful decline, and I want to highlight declines of equal size or greater since 2018, and there are four of them, as you can see on this chart, including one last year in 2025. But, here's the thing. In 2016, that 72% decline in Ethereum happened when the equity markets fell 20%, and we had an industrial recession.
Um in 2019, 2018 through 2019, that's when Fed Chair Powell was raising rates at a time when the market couldn't support higher interest rates, and we had a 20% equity bear market. Of course, we know 2022 was the time the Fed uh uh was fighting inflation uh and the economy had a heart attack. And so, that decline in crypto was with an equity bear market.
And last year in 2025 was the tariff wars that caused a 20% decline in the stock market. So, every one of these crypto bear markets that we've gone through, these crypto winters, have occurred when the equity markets were down at least 20%. But not this time. Instead, we've had a a decline caused, I think, by two things.
Maybe the cycle is is one of the original things. But on October 10th was a a crypto deleveraging event that triggered the first sell-off. And then this year, we had another leg down in stocks because of the Iran war buildup. And maybe it's possibly explained by the SaaS apocalypse on the AI stocks cuz as you can see here, Bitcoin and software stocks are highly correlated.
But why am I saying this? Well, because I don't think we have a crypto winter. I think it's a mini crypto winter. And the key now is is the has the stock market bottomed? So, let me spend a couple of minutes explain to you why I think the equity market has bottomed. First, uh you should care because every Bit- Bitcoin top has coincided with an equity top and every equity market bottom has coincided with a Bitcoin bottom.
So, we do care about what the S&P is doing. And we are in a wartime situation. I think many of you may be bearish. Um in my other hat at Fundstrat, we're actually bullish right now on stocks. Fact, uh we called the bottom for equities more than a week ago. We think the bottom has already been put in place for equities.
And the reason is stocks don't rise on they don't bottom on good news. Equity markets bottom on bad news. And we've had a lot of bad news, okay? And keep in mind if you're skeptical and you don't think equities have bottomed, look back at the last few years. The COVID lows in March, people were bearish, but equities had bottomed.
And again, at Fundstrat we did call that low. In November 2022 at the market lows, we were lambasted for turning bullish and staying bullish, but that was the lows and people were bearish for the next 18 months even as stocks went up. And last year at the April lows, again at Fundstrat, [clears throat]
we called the lows actually to the day. And investors were very bearish at those lows. Okay. So, why do we think the stock market's bottomed? One, uh that's what history shows. If you look at every major conflict, the stock market basically sells off into the build-up and it bottoms when the invasion starts.
In fact, let's look at World War II. In World War II, okay, that was a 4-year war. The The US entered the war in December 1941 and the stock market bottomed 5 months into the war. Historically, the deepest collapses in digital assets happened alongside major recessions, aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycles, or full-blown stock market crashes.
This time, despite geopolitical fears, tariff tensions, deleveraging events, and panic around AI disrupting software companies, the broader equity market never truly entered a prolonged bear market. That distinction matters because according to Lee, crypto may have been going through a temporary fear-driven reset rather than the beginning of another multi-year collapse.
And that's why so much of his presentation shifts toward the stock market itself. Lee argues that Bitcoin and crypto consistently move in sync with major equity bottoms and tops, which means understanding macro conditions is critical to understanding what comes next for digital assets. While most investors remain cautious because of war headlines, oil spikes, and volatility, Lee believes the market may have already absorbed the worst of the fear.
And in the next section, he explains why historical wartime market behavior, collapsing volatility, and cooling oil prices could all be signaling that a much larger bull market is quietly beginning underneath the surface. To understand what that means, you should look at this chart. The stock market bottomed in May 1942.
That was 1 month before the Battle of Midway, which is the Pacific War. So, before the US even engaged in its first battle in World War II, the equity markets bottomed. And then you can see D-Day in Europe, June 1944, the stock market had already recovered. But, it actually rallied the day of the invasion.
Now, why is that? It's because during the war, the US economy gets stimulated. The average war spends $32 billion a month. And the last two wars cost about a trillion dollars, but that was a trillion dollars of earnings growth. And President Trump is asking for roughly $700 billion additional spending for this war.
You might say, "Well, Tom, I'm not convinced cuz look at what happened to oil." Well, oil surged from 68 to 120. But, notice it's actually declined to under $100 now. In fact, uh if you look at the oil future prices, uh they barely budged. And the VIX, which is a measure of volatility, soared to 30 and is now below 20.
Why does that matter? Well, we looked at three conditions. When has the VIX closed above 30, oil's pulled back 20% and the VIX closed below 20. It's happened four times. Four of four times, it was a major low. And actually, the average 6-month gain is almost 10%. So, I think it's definitive in our minds that the equity markets have bottomed, but I think this is an important equity low because uh if we clear this Middle East problem and the US economy holds up through higher oil, I think we're going to look at a bull market that could run through 2028.
So, a major major move in equities. Okay. So, that's the setup and that's why I think Ethereum is probably on its way to 60,000 if we're correct. And here's something to keep in mind. One, since the war started, the best performing asset in the world, outperforming energy stocks, is Ethereum. Um it's outperformed the S&P by almost 20 percentage points.
And you can see it's massively outperformed gold and silver. And if you take a look at Ethereum's chart over the last 10 years, I think it's going through a major consolidation, a massive consolidation. And uh how did these other consolidations get resolved? Well, in the first consolidation, Ethereum went on to rise by 220 times.
And then the consolidation that ended in 2019, Ethereum rose by 50x. So, I think there is a massive move coming in Ethereum driven by a couple of things. One is tokenization. And the second is agentic AI. So, uh I'm going to have to go through these pretty quickly, but I think that this you can get something like a 25x for Ethereum.
So, I've talked a lot about tokenization in the past, so I'm going to fly through this. Uh you can look at our other presentations about this, but I think we're going through a an important moment in the financial system not too different than 1971, which is that tokenization is a time when we're making almost every asset synthetic.
And it follows a roadmap that happened when the US went off the gold standard in '71. It led to unleashing a huge innovation of products from money market funds to currency futures to CDOs to index futures all because the US was trying to preserve the sovereignty of the dollar when we went off the gold standard.
Well, I think that's happening today because now we're we're digitizing everything. And look, even Jamie Dimon, the biggest skeptic on blockchain, even recently stated that crypto is better than the current financial system. So, what does that mean? Well, I think everyone who's building in crypto is going to develop these future products, and that's stable coins, tokenized equities, you know, tokenized monetary reputation, but it's also really part of the future agentic system.
What Tom Lee is ultimately describing here is something much bigger than a normal crypto recovery rally. His thesis is that we may be entering a completely new financial cycle where blockchain infrastructure becomes deeply integrated into the global economy itself. In Lee's view, the financial system is moving toward a world where assets, payments, identity systems, and even reputation become digitized and tradable on blockchain networks.
And if that transformation accelerates the way many institutions expect, Ethereum could sit at the center of that entire ecosystem. But, the most explosive part of his presentation revolves around artificial intelligence. Lee believes agentic AI systems, autonomous AI agents capable of transacting and operating independently, will likely require blockchain infrastructure to function efficiently.
He argues that AI systems won't want to rely on slow traditional payment networks for microtransactions, identity verification, or decentralized coordination. Instead, crypto networks may become the native financial layer for AI itself. That's why Lee believes blockchains gain increasing relevance over time, especially platforms like Ethereum that already dominate decentralized applications and smart contract activity.
And once Lee combines that AI thesis with Ethereum's historical performance cycles, his price targets become dramatically more aggressive. He explains that Ethereum's valuation relative to Bitcoin has historically reverted toward much higher levels during major bull markets. If Bitcoin eventually reaches $250,000, Lee argues Ethereum could easily reclaim levels around $12,000 based on historical averages alone.
If it returns to previous cycle highs relative to Bitcoin, that target moves above $20,000. But Lee believes Ethereum is actually in a stronger position today than it was during the 2021 cycle because of tokenization, stable coins, and AI infrastructure growth. That's what leads him to the massive long-term projection of roughly $60,000 per Ethereum.
Whether viewers agree with those numbers or not, one thing is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The macro environment is changing fast. Oil prices are collapsing as geopolitical tensions potentially cool. Volatility is falling sharply. Institutional money is flooding back into Bitcoin ETFs, and crypto assets are suddenly outperforming many traditional markets again.
Tom Lee believes those are early signs that a new bull cycle may already be starting beneath the surface, even while much of the market remains skeptical. But, what do you think? Is this really the end of the crypto winter, or is the market getting ahead of itself again? And could Ethereum actually become the backbone of the next AI and tokenization revolution?
Let me know your thoughts down in the comments below. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to like the another major crypto and macro update. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.
Comments 0