저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2000년 버핏 발언 재조명: 시장은 시간이 지나면 정리되지만 그 사이 터무니없는 가치 평가가 나타난다. 현재 시장 평가: 버핏은 본인이 기업 내재가치의 절반에 살 수 있는 저평가 기업을 찾지 못하고 있으며, 고평가 사례는 많이 보인다고 말했다. 신용과 자산가격: 주택·주식 등 자산 가격이 급등하고 쉬운 돈이 넘쳐 나는 매우 이례적인 시기라고 진단했다. 상장 여부에 따라 같은 사업의 차입 능력이 크게 달라지는 점을 지적했다. 역사적 비교: 1930년대는 600년 만의 영어권 최악의 불황이었고, 현재는 완전고용과 투기 만연이라는 반대 방향의 극단이라고 비교했다. 예측 관련: 극단적 시기라 결과를 예측하기는 어렵다고 명시했다. 구체적 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
well we generally believe you can just see anything in markets i mean the just extraordinary uh what happens in markets over time it gets it gets sorted out over you know eventually but i mean we have seen companies sell for tens of billion dollars that are worthless and at times we have seen things sell for 20 a number of things not not hard to find perfectly decent people running himself for literally twenty twenty percent of twenty five percent of what they were worth so we we have seen and and will continue to see everything it's just the nature of markets they produce wild wild things over time and it's one of those wild things and not to get carried away when other wild things happen because the wild things create their own truth for a while and you have to you know you that's that's the reason they're happening is and people are getting pleasant experiences and all that we you'll see everything if you're around markets uh for a reasonable period of time uh uh we don't see uh we don't see any cases of dramatic undervaluation by this market so it isn't like it isn't like we're seeing because there's this perhaps this speculative mania in a particular area of the market we do not see that creating incredible undervaluation other places what's happening there may lead to underevaluation you know a few years from now or may not i don't know that but but it isn't like you can find things that are that are worth double or thereabouts what you're paying because frankly there's so much money sloshing around that if if you found such a thing it would be very likely corrected by by some buyout types i mean we would love to find businesses that are selling for half of what their net what they're intrinsically worth we don't find that we do find a lot of cases where we think the valuations on the high side are just are unbelievable um we have been in periods in the past where we felt almost everything was being given away too so you'll get those extremes most of the time the market's in a position where there's a little of both but every now and then it gets into a position where there's a lot of one or the other and we would you know we would love it if we could find a lot of reasonable size companies that were selling it what we thought were half of the intrinsic value we're not finding them charlie well i do think that the present time is a very unusual period it's hard to think of a time when residential real estate and common stocks and so on uh rose so rapidly in price and there was so much easy money floating around i mean this is a very unusual period what's fascinating and i'm sure you thought of it is that you could now have a business saw a few of them you know earlier this year will say that might have been selling for 10 billion dollars where the business itself could not have borrowed probably a hundred million dollars in debt with an equity valuation of 10 billion but the business itself would not if on a as a private business would not have been able to borrow 100 million but the owners of that business because it's public can borrow many billions of dollars on on on their little pieces of paper because the because they have this market valuation if it's a private business the company itself couldn't borrow one twentieth or so what the individuals could borrow that's happened to a degree before but this has probably been as extreme as anything that's happened uh probably including uh the 20s that doesn't mean there's a parallel to it but but it's been pretty extreme charlie i think it probably is the most extreme uh that has happened in modern capitalism in my lifetime i would say the 30s were the uh it created the worst recession in the english-speaking world in 600 years and it was very extreme you could buy all you could eat in omaha through the 30s for a quarter from henderson's cafeteria and and now we're seeing the other face of what capitalism can do and this is almost as extreme as the uh as the thirties were but in a different direction it's zero unemployment rampant speculation etc etc it's an amazing period that does not make it easy to predict however the outcome you
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