저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드(ARK Invest)의 2022년 전기차 전망을 소개하는 영상이다. 영상은 2022년 테슬라 주가가 두 배가 될 것이라는 캐시 우드의 발언을 전하며 시작한다. 캐시 우드는 2020년 ARKK 계열 ETF 수익률 153%, 2021년 약 21% 손실을 언급했다. 이후 빅 아이디어 2022 보고서에서 전기차가 내연차와 가격 동등(sticker price parity)에 도달할 것이라고 주장했다. 전기차 판매는 2021년 480만 대에서 2026년 4,000만 대로 연 53% 성장할 것으로 전망했다. 테슬라는 5년 내 글로벌 자동차 시장의 25%를 차지할 것이라는 예측도 제시했다. 배터리 가격은 2020년 kWh당 100달러 이하로 떨어졌고 10년간 89% 하락했다고 설명했다. 충전 속도도 5~10년 내 20분 이내 충전이 가능해질 것으로 보았다. 2035년 내연차 퇴출 목표에 대해 정책 후퇴 가능성을 언급했다. 월가는 전기차 업계의 높은 전망을 비현실적으로 본다는 대비도 제시했다. 전기차 시장점유율은 2019년 2.5%, 2020년 4.1%, 2021년 약 9%로 증가했다. 지역별로는 유럽 16%, 중국 14%, 미국 4.5% 수준이라고 소개했다. 수익성 측면에서 2025년 테슬라 예상 영업이익 200억 달러, 폭스바겐 약 70억 달러로 비교했다. 테슬라 2020년 순이익 7.21억 달러, 규제 크레딧 매출 약 16억 달러를 언급했다. 결론적으로 테슬라가 소프트웨어(자율주행, OTA 업데이트) 경쟁력을 바탕으로 업계 최고 수익성을 지속할 것이라고 주장했다. 영상은 시청자에게 전기차와 내연차 중 어느 쪽에 베팅할지 댓글을 요청하며 마무리된다.
다듬은 글
the names you read have migrated into our top 10 because we have concentrated our holdings towards our highest conviction names tesla has been the best case in point and i think we have a lot of teslas in tesla like stocks in our portfolio in recent years public confidence in the electric vehicle industry has reached an all-time high trend arc invest a kathy wood lead investment management firm has been at the forefront of advocating this awakening as she was mentioning her predictions she shocked everybody with her words mentioning that tesla stock will double in its size in the year 2022 hello and welcome back to wall street winners in today's video we'll discuss kathy woods's predictions on the stock and why she thinks that tesla will double its stock this year you'll see many of the same stocks but in growth you'll see the fans you'll see microsoft you'll see tesla because it was put in the in the benchmark finally you won't concede that you think all of these stocks that i read on that list plus others that are down by significant amounts as well are really going to come back to the prior levels they were absolutely absolutely and and beyond kathy wood rose to prominence as a portfolio manager in 2020 partly to investments like tesla that focused on innovation in 2020 the arc innovation exchange traded fund etf arc returned a whopping 153 percent but lost roughly 21 in 2021 she recently released her big ideas for 2022 report in which she stated that electric vehicles were on their way to sticker price parity with gas-powered vehicles to put it another way electric automobiles will soon cost the same as or less than gasoline-powered vehicles another point they brought up was the fact that as the range of electric vehicles grows so does the price range and pricing are two most major impediments to client adoption evs on the other hand have steadily closed the gap making it easier for existing consumers to make the switch and for new customers to adopt a relatively new car technology from a financial standpoint archinvest predicted that ev sales would expand eightfold or fifty three percent annually from four point eight million units in 2021 to 40 million units in 2026 at the recent big ideas summit tesla according to kathy wood would take 25 percent of the global vehicle market in five years the worldwide vehicle market is worth about 85 million dollars currently in 2025 let's say it's 100 million tesla is on track to produce 25 million vehicles according to kathy's projection the biggest risk to the estimate they believe is whether traditional automakers will be able to effectively shift to electric autonomous vehicles aside from this reasonable issue the prediction also emphasizes the falling costs of batteries battery packs for electric cars passed a major milestone in 2020 with prices falling below 100 per kilowatt hour a thorough analysis shows that prices have dropped by 89 in just 10 years however you must realize that this was not a gradual fall rather it was an exponential decline and the more this happens the cheaper evs will become and cheaper evs will lead to broader adoption the demand for electric vehicles will skyrocket rendering the competition obsolete as a result it's a little surprising that legacy corporations have declared 2035 to be the year they'll go entirely green and legacy companies aren't alone in this lunacy wall street believes arc and the ev industry's high forecasts are unreasonable even when they've been proven wrong time and again tesla has disproved their claims but it appears that it is still insufficient as seen by its inaction there's a definite divide and it'll only be a matter of time before everyone comes out of their denial and acknowledges the change the advancement in ev charging rates is the next factor to consider the ability to charge an electric vehicle quickly is heavily blind on both the vehicle and the charging system and once ev charging rates have reached a standardized level arc invest believes the industry will optimize for other features such as autonomous driving safety and a variety of others another key reason why some potential purchasers are concerned is that electric vehicles will take a long time to charge while most drivers are accustomed to filling their gas tanks in less than five minutes evs normally take at least 30 minutes to get 80 charged at the fastest charging stations depending on the size and specs of the battery however in 5 to 10 years faster charging may be achievable new lithium ion battery materials as well as new solid state batteries that are more stable at quicker charging speeds are in the works they can set recharging times to no more than 20 minutes returning to the economic issue charging electric vehicles have become significantly more affordable with petrol costs up 58 year-over-year many people have pondered and switched to electric vehicles to save money however there are still some unanswered questions people believe that electric vehicles are more expensive than gas-powered automobiles and that electricity has its own set of costs the question they pose is whether going electric will be cheaper in the long run yes is the shot and correct answer inflation is on its way national policies are evolving to favor electric vehicles and forget about the 2035 deadline once this administration is gone that deadline will be pushed back in fact it's probable that it'll be cut while biden is still in office after the market catches up with them america does not want to be the only country in the world that does not have a hundred percent green policy as a result if traditional automakers do not successfully navigate the transition away from gas-powered vehicles they may go bankrupt industry observers have been unable to comprehend how swiftly the switch to electric vehicles is taking place for years every year they revise their forecasts to be more optimistic but even the most optimistic estimates today do not expect that electric vehicles will account for more than half of the new car market by 2030.
according to arkhanvest the electric vehicle market share increased from 14.11 percent in 2020 to 8.5 percent in 2021 even while the global pandemic limited the market for conventional cars and manufacturers grappled with supply chain difficulties growth has been particularly spectacular over the last three years in 2019 2.2 million electric automobiles were sold globally accounting for only 2.5 percent of the total car sales the whole car market shrank in 2020 but electric car sales remained unaffected reaching 3 million units and accounting for 4.1 percent of total car sales electric car sales more than doubled to 6.6 million in 2021 accounting for nearly nine percent of the global car market and more than tripling the market share from only two years before electric vehicles accounted for all of the net growth in worldwide car sales in 2021 there are currently over 16 million electric vehicles on the road around the world but they are not evenly distributed europe and china are the ev market leaders with 16 and 14 market share respectively while united states has a 4.5 market share which is dominated by tesla as we approach this new epoch the last question we must address is who will lead the global ev age will it be gm from the 1960s or toyota from the 1980s the answer is self-evident but since we're already here let's make a case for tesla based on the available evidence despite all of the competition the electric car field and despite the fact that some legacy firms are starting to notice tesla will continue to be the most profitable player in the industry for years to come one of the most important reasons to start electric vehicles are their sole focus there are however other causes we can readily look into the previous work history at the moment the global first place goes to tesla and the second place goes to volkswagen because they're already the two largest manufacturers of electric vehicles and they're expected to keep this trend going by 2025.
elon musk's tesla on the other hand is outperforming every other electric car manufacturer in terms of earnings and will continue to do so tesla is expected to sell 2.3 million electric vehicles by 2025 with a 20 billion dollars operating profit volkswagen on the other hand plans to sell 2.6 million electric cars at a profit of around 7 billion dollars meaning that even if they sell more cars than tesla they will not profit more than the muskelhead firm and no company exemplifies this better than general motors it's estimated that they'll sell eight hundred thousand electric vehicles and earn almost two billion dollars from them however because these vehicles are made in collaboration with china it's difficult to say how much of the amount we just mentioned they'll get tesla sold 500 000 vehicles and earned 721 million dollars in 2020 its first full year in the black however selling regulatory credits to competitive manufacturers that need them to fulfill emissions regulations accounted for nearly 1.6 billion dollars of its 31.1 billion dollars in sales tesla will be the most profitable player in the electric vehicle industry for years to come even as competition heats up tesla's significant profitability advantage will undoubtedly come from its software offerings not from its cars while tesla's vehicles are already head and shoulders above the competition they are still the only car maker capable of sending major software upgrades to their vehicles and its autopilot driver assistance system which can be enhanced over the air is among the best in the business so if you had to wager on the profit would you go with electric vehicles or gas powered vehicles and if you had to pick a brand would you go tesla or something else let us know in the comments below hope you liked our video please subscribe to our channel and remember to hit the like button turn on the notification bell to never miss a video from our channel share the video as far as possible because the more you know the more you grow goodbye
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