저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄: 피터 쉬프는 2022년 5월 시점에서 다가오는 경제위기가 2008년보다 훨씬 심각할 것이며 나스닥·성장주 하락을 예상한다. 실질임금과 물가: 3월 제조업 등 생산직 시간당 임금은 전년비 6.7% 상승했지만 CPI 8.5%를 감안하면 실질임금은 약 2% 하락했다고 주장. 그는 실제 인플레이션이 17~18%일 수 있다고 봤다. 저축과 소비: 2022년 미국 가계저축률이 급락해 코로나 부양금·PPP 지급 이전보다 낮아졌고, 신용카드 부채는 2001년 이후 최고 수준이라고 언급. 가계가 넷플릭스 해지, 외식 감소 등 지출 축소에 나설 것이며 소비 의존 경제에 악재라고 봤다. 증시 전망: 실질소득 감소가 주식시장, 특히 성장 가치로 평가받는 나스닥에 타격을 줄 것. 주가가 완벽한 실적을 반영하고 있어 하락 여력이 크다고 주장. 아마존 등 FANG주가 약세장 영역에 들어섰고 아마존의 문제는 이제 시작이라고 봤다. 언급 종목 방향: 나스닥 하락, FANG(아마존 등) 하락. 연준 비판: 연준이 금리 인상으로 경기를 해치지 않고 인플레를 잡을 수 있다고 주장하지만 쉬프는 이를 과거 오판의 연속으로 본다. 연준이 2006~2007년 주택시장 문제를 과소평가했고 2021년 인플레를 일시적이라 한 것도 틀렸다며 신뢰가 무너질 것이라 봤다. 향후 실수는 긴축을 너무 강하게 하는 것이 아니라 정치적 압력에 굴복해 충분히 긴축하지 못하는 것이라고 예상했다. 경기침체 리스크: 1분기 GDP 마이너스, 주식 폭락, 인플레 지속을 근거로 경기침체가 확실하다고 봤고, 금리 인상이 침체를 더 깊게 만들 것이라 경고. 현재 고용 지표만 강하며 그마저 언제든 바뀔 수 있다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 장기적으로 미국 경제·달러 신뢰 악화를 우려하는 입장이며, 단기적으로는 증시 하락을 예상.
다듬은 글
i was warning about the 2008 financial crisis before it happened well i can assure everybody today that the crisis that's coming is going to be far worse peter david schiff is a stockbroker financial commentator and radio presenter from the united states before the financial system was hit by a severe crisis in 2008 peter schiff predicted it also he has revealed his strategies on how to protect themselves during the financial crisis americans are making more money but inflation is eating to their gains peter schiff discussed the extraordinary job at real incomes and how it'll ripple across the economy in this podcast in march average hourly pay for manufacturing and non-supervisory workers increased by 6.7 percent year-over-year that sounds fantastic until you take inflation into account with the consumer price index or cpi at 8.5 according to official government figures actual salaries for these workers have fallen by about two percent their higher salaries aren't even enough to keep up with rising costs wages are rising at a rate of about four to five percent per year as a result real wages are falling even faster in aggregate it's even worse according to peter the wage figures are accurate because they're easy to measure those are genuine figures hedonics does not exist there are no alternatives the wage races are correct the price hikes on the other hand are not because real incomes are dropping at an unprecedented rate if inflation is actually 17 or 18 not 8.5 percent and wages are only expanding by four or five percent the consequences of falling real wages on american savings may be seen in 2022 the u.s household savings rate plummeted it's currently lower than before the covet stimulus and ppp checks were sent out because the government sent everyone a large sum of money in late 2020 in early 2021 there was a significant increase in savings people paid off their credit cards and put money in the bank savings are being depleted and people are racking up credit card debt at an alarming rate consumer debt is at its highest level since 2001.
not only are their savings gone but they now have pure savings than they did before they received the government slush fund since they spent it on rising costs now that money is gone they're dependent on credit cards to bridge the gap between their earnings and their expenses peter emphasized that the drop in real earnings for american households is unprecedented and it'll have ramifications for the rest of the economy they have to make cuts wherever they can to put it another way people will strive to save money the netflix subscription will be cancelled through refusing to take a holiday they aren't going to eat out as much this is terrible news for an economy based on people spending money on things they want this according to peter would spill over into the stock market especially on the nasdaq where companies are valued for growth they're not just not going to experience growth they're going to see a decrease in their business as a result the equities are priced for perfection but we're getting the polar opposite all of these equities are still expensive therefore they have a long way to fall however because results aren't even close to estimates these stocks need to be marked down significantly furthermore the fed claims that tightening monetary policy and combating inflation can be done without harming the economy the economy according to federal reserve chairman jerome powell and certain other central bankers is robust enough to handle higher interest rates according to peter schiff this is simply the latest in long sequence of arrogant fat miscalculations some economists are concerned that the fed will make a mistake and tighten too much as it begins to raise rates and deplete its balance sheet however peter claims that the fed had already made the error it's not about the fed making a blunder they've already made numerous errors the federal reserve has never done anything correctly they've already condemned us in the future since they've made so many blunders in the past it's not about any potential blunders they might make it's about the previous errors they've made and given all the mistakes that central bankers have made in the past peter believes that more mistakes will be made in the future in the future the mistake they'll make is not tightening too much but not tightening enough yielding to political pressure once the economy truly begins to tank and the markets are entrenched in bear market territory when the fed takes its foot off the brakes and throws it back on the pedal the economy is on the verge of collapsing because inflation will spiral out of control peter alluded to the recent drop in speculative stocks claiming that it was a result of the fed's previous blunders the fed's most reckless of all monetary policies which produced the mother volley inflation reached peak insanity in 2021 now the fed is attempting to put the genie back in the bottle it refuses to own any responsibility for letting the genie out of the bottle it tries to pin everything on putin it wants to blame kovet for everything however it believes that repairing the damage is a straightforward operation all they have to do now is raise rates to 2.5 or 3 percent and because we have such a robust economy in a super hot labor market the fed can do now what it couldn't do in the past because the economy is so much stronger now that it was then it's not however more powerful it's just a bigger bubble says the narrator however the fed central bankers appear to be unaware of this in fact the only thing greater than this bubble is the fomc members egos and their lack of understanding of economic realities the federal reserve has a dreadful track record jerome powell the chairman of the federal reserve has been stupid false and more totally incorrect powell isn't the only one the federal reserve has a long history of falling short of expectations in 2006 and 2007 the federal reserve asserted that the housing market was fine don't worry it's restricted to subprime central bankers declared when it became evident there was a problem with the financial markets plummeted in 2008 and the fed began quantitative easing ben bernanke stated that the central bank was not monetizing debt and that it would sell all the bonds it had purchased once the crisis had passed they claimed that printing trillions of dollars would not cause consumer prices to rise during the pandemic they assured that inflation would be temporary when it appeared they've now admitted it's not temporary but they're certain they can repair it they claim that rising rates will not harm the economy so what makes us think we should believe them peter believes it's a case of three strikes and you're out strike one subprime is under control strike two inflation is just temporary strike three we have the ability to hike interest rates it won't be a problem because the economy is robust enough to withstand it when that error is discovered i believe the fed's credibility will be shattered in addition gdp shrank in the first quarter the stock market has been in free fall the inflationary fire is still burning this all points to a recession as peter schiff noted in his podcast despite this the federal reserve is on the verge of raising interest rates i'm not sure how this is going to work stocks had a horrible day on friday capping off a bad month for stocks especially the nasdaq it was dubbed the tech rack by peter before the year started peter was warned about the effect of rising interest rates and inflation on i.t companies the nasdaq fell 4.4 in a single day on friday the index was down 7.3 percent for the month the nasdaq had its worst month since november 2008 the worst recession since the great depression was just getting started and the nasdaq experienced a month like this the last time but there's more to it than that the nasdaq has lost 17 percent this year since the nasdaq was founded in 1971 this is the worst first month of any year so we had a horrible bear market during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s but we just had the worst first four months of the year since 1971 says the author the nasdaq has fallen twenty three point four percent from its high putting it in bear market territory and all four fang stocks have now fallen into bear market territory following the release of decimal earnings data amazon had a bad day on friday according to peter amazon's issues are only beginning the united states of america is bankrupt amazon earns money by selling things to people all throughout the world not only americans consumers on the other hand are brooke they spend an excessive amount of money on food they're overspending on gasoline the majority of consumers do not shop for food or patrol on amazon they use amazon to buy other items since they don't have any money left over after paying for food energy and rents how can the fed still be confident that it can raise interest rates without causing a big recession given the economic statistics in stock market weakness in order to we might easily see another negative gdp report after all no one predicted it in the first quarter that would formally usher us into a downturn what if the fed raises rates in the midst of a recession how terrible will the downturn be if things are this terrible now with interest rates at 0.25 how much worse will it get if interest rates go up it amazes me that people are so unaware of the threat of recession and how the fed can be so optimistic given how bad the numbers are already that rate hikes won't cause a recession because the economy is so much significantly stronger than it has ever been in the past or at any point other time when the fed has high grades when objectively the economy has never been this week low unemployment is the one indicator of economic strength that anyone could point to and that is subject to change at any time so that brings an end for today's video thanks for watching if you 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