저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 실적 발표 분석. 매출 전년비 36%, 전분기비 11% 증가로 단기 둔화 우려는 과장일 수 있음. 다음 분기 성장률은 0.4%로 둔화 전망, 소비자 시장(스마트폰·PC) 약세 지속. 재고는 3분기 정점 후 4분기부터 감소, 2023년 상반기 회복 전망. 매출총이익률 60.4%로 높으나 장기 53% 이상 유지 전망. 설비투자(capex) 400억→360억 달러로 하향, 공급망 문제와 둔화 대응 요인. 발언자는 단기 고통을 인정하면서도 반도체 시장에 대해 낙관적 입장 유지.
다듬은 글
so tsmc the semiconductor manufacturing giant just reported earnings this morning and I want to say if you are a semiconductor investor they did answer five questions that we all should know so let's take a closer look in today's episode I do want to thank the Motley Fool For sponsoring this video and make sure to check out full.com Jose to get the top 10 stocks to buy right now so we can see stock price was up roughly 3.9 percent almost four percent up today and it definitely was a great day for investors originally we can see the stock price started red just like most of the market but then kind of trickle its way up to a nice return so I think the first question investors want to know about the semiconductor Market is is there really a Slowdown especially when we take a closer look at net revenue in forms of US Dollars was up almost 36 percent year over year and was up 11 quarter over quarter if we take a closer look at those numbers we can see that hey maybe there might not be a Slowdown like everyone is talking I mean if we take a closer look at the revenue by platforms we can see smart phone was up 25 quarter over quarter Internet of Things was up 33 even high performance Computing was up four percent quarter over a quarter and high performance Computing was such a huge growth last quarter alone so first tsmc does mention that they expect some form of slowdown happening in the market for example for the upcoming quarter they expect only a point four percent growth quarter over quarter they also continue to see Heavy decrease in the consumer market so that's usually the smartphone and also kind of laptops and desktops and that's what we've seen kind of with the overall PC shipment decreasing finally they do mention that they're still super strength in the data center market and in the automotive Market but they want to be somewhat conservative and say that there is the possibility that some of those customers can kind of slow down so we can see most of the Slowdown right now in the semiconductor Market is more consumer dependent opposed to Enterprise and big player spending so I think a great number two question is how long will this slow down last so they do mention that they they expect a semiconductor supply chain inventory to peak in the third quarter this year and to start to reduce in the fourth quarter this year so what does that mean let's say I was a PC maker first I would see that I would have a nice amount of inventory right now and with this all talks of kind of recession and consumer spending decreasing what I would do is hey start selling my inventory as fast as possible and also sell it at maybe at a cheaper price some form a strong discount so my inventory levels was dropped what I would like to them to do is drop at a very very low level eventually they're gonna drop at such a low level that I as a kind of PC maker will have to go back to kind of TSM and be like hey we need more components we need more chips in our products so then inventories will go back to normal level so tsmc believes that they peak in the third quarter this year and they start to reduce in the fourth quarter and it will take a few quarters through the first half of 2023 to rebound balance to healthier levels so I do want to say as the stock market is more of a forward investment tools this is the information that kind of drives the market right so it does seem like the PC market like the overall kind of semiconductor Market is expected to start pulling back in the second half of 2023 and if you are enjoying the episode so far make sure to hit the thumbs up as it does help me grow my overall audience if you want to support a little bit more make sure to subscribe using my Link at full.com Jose so the third and fourth questions are pretty much about margins first is how will the United States regulations affect margins for a company like TSM unfortunately TSM says that right now this is such a moving piece that it's too early to tell the fourth question is how will International expansion kind of affect margins for a company like TSM if we take a closer look at their gross margins we can see this quarter was this quarter and last quarter were pretty high uh this quarter was 60.4 last quarter was 59.1 but a year ago it was roughly 51.3 the main reason is the overall shortage has kind of allowed TSM to kind of be working at full production this kind of increases margins a nice amount and obviously without average selling price also increasing it increases gross margins for a company like TSM TSM does mention that the initial cost of overseas Fabs are indeed higher than those in Taiwan and it's mainly because of higher labor cost in different layers of the supply chain but they do believe that they continue to earn the proper return and deliver the long-term gross margins of 53 percent and higher so we can see this year is definitely kind of an outlier for them with these high 50s low 60 percent margins we should expect them in the upcoming years to drop down a little bit and get closer to that mid 15 gross margins the fifth question is why is this company slowing down on capital expenditure and this is a big topic because it definitely influences a lot of semiconductor companies especially in the equipment like asml like amet like we and we saw that earlier today in my earlier episode episode so three months ago tsmc mentioned that capex was gonna be closer to the lower end of their range the range was originally 40 to 44 billion so three months ago they mentioned that hey it's going to be closer to 40 billion during this earnings call they mentioned that it's actually going to be closer to 36 billion so that's a huge drop right and many investors might be worried and might be seeing this as the proof that there is an ultimate slowdown happening in the semiconductor Market first thing is they do mention that there is two major reasons for the slowdown in K-PAX the first half is actually affected because equipment still is in supply chain issues and it's taking a longer time for them to get certain equipment and certain tools so that's affecting half of the capex reduction the other half it has to do with overall The Slowdown and they don't want to kind of over create more supply lines if the overall Market is slowing down right now in the short term of things but they do mention if things go back up they will obviously start investing have on those supply lines as well another important thing they mentioned that 70 to 80 percent of their budget is actually being used for advanced technology so we can see TSM even though it is a Manufacturing Company it's a company that's focusing on technology and innovating every step of the way so at the end of the day with these overall thoughts I'm still super bullish in the semiconductor Market we can definitely see that short-term pain at least for the next six seven months from now maybe even eight months but I do believe that the overall semiconductor Market has numerous Tailwinds behind it that for me I'm still super excited to hold companies in this market let me know what are your thoughts take care have a good day and see you next time
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