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questions about the iPhone and China looming large and just the shares have started to climb again is the worst now behind the stock it's a key question let's ask wed Bush's Dan IES that question he joins us here post n i mean so what a difference a week makes you know you could have said wow the stock looks terrible it's in a downtrend here we are we're pacing for five up days the best day since August 30th it's back above the 200 day moving average what's going to happen here I think it's going to be not just better than fear but I'm expecting Cook's comment on China to actually be cauly positive because what we're seeing in China I'm not saying it hasn't slowed since pre-orders but I actually seeing a stabilization I think demand from our perspective is actually going to show growth especially when we go into next few course and that's what it's all about here in terms of whisper expectations that have come down I think investors are viewing this in a glass half empty sort of view and I think that's the wrong move so you don't believe the hype that huawei's been taking market share from Apple in China I think about 100 bips of market share may be incremental in terms of what they've taken I just got back from Asia you know yesterday in my opinion you're still seeing growth from a China perspective and the most important things guys that asps in terms of the pro we think it's going going to be about 80% this time in China a year ago it was 60% that ASP Tail's important especially going to the December quarter is this the quarter where we finally reverse the year- on-year quarterly Revenue declines CU it's been three in a row from down 5 1.2% to down 3% to down 1% so are we back positive now I think we're we're basically back toward positive and in the December quarter what's toward positive we're toward positive last quarter so I about 1% in terms of what what we're going to see but I think the important thing what everyone's focused on is December guidance we think 5% incremental year of year and as you've talked about a lot that's important because you see unit growth from an iPhone perspective Ive and then Services which I view is really the Golden Goose in terms of the valuation that's now back to double digits so I I think you clearly there will be some caution from a macro perspective but I just we're not seeing any of the number Cuts coming from the supply chain in China which is why we sit here and we're bullish into the print so you're not worried at all about guidance about the holiday quarter cuz others on the street who cover the stock are even ones who are really bullish the name like Eric W ring over at Morgan Stanley he's overweight the stock but here's what he told me just the other day right on this set when we think about earnings on Thursday and the potential for Apple to guide the December quarter slightly below where consensus numbers are again is it thesis changing no but tactically given what we've talked about in terms of the setup for Tech this earning cycle I think it makes me a little bit more cautious okay don't call him a hater cuz he's not he has overweight on the stock what do you make of that I think whisper expectations are already expecting softness here and what I I think when it comes down to it you're going to have iPhone unit growth that's probably four 5% so I think the December quarter you know as he's talking about definitely fears about cautious really more negative commentary from cook around China I think there could be maybe a sprinkling of caution but I think overall positive and I think that's the important thing going into this quarter what happens if there is a in your words a sprinkling of caution around a stock that let's be honest it hasn't traded all that well over the last few months at all despite what these last few days have brought us and I think the New York City C drivers bearish on Apple relative to the China fear the shadow band you know this is something the last few months that's really been a massive overhang on thean smartphones have been weak okay not just we're not talking Apple just more broadly so are you assuming that that's trough that's done now we're back towards growth and I think what qualcomm's even talked about I think the smartphone recovery is starting here and I think we look back 3 six months from now the trough and the worse is in the rear of the mirror despite what we're seeing in terms of China where I'm not saying that that's not going to be sprinkled in here in terms of some little negative but overall what they're seeing in China I think this is something where apple is actually going to be surprised to the upside when we look at the next two three quarters
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