저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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결론: 드러켄밀러는 미국 정부 지출이 통제 불능이라 재정 적자와 국채 발행 부담이 커지고 있으며, 금리가 낮을 때 장기채를 대량 발행한 것이 실수였다고 본다. 국채 금리 및 만기 구조: 2021년 하반기 10년물 금리는 약 1.1% 수준이었고 30년물도 낮았다. 그는 재무부 측 주장과 달리 국채 평균 만기가 줄었다고 지적하며, 연준 대차대조표 등 약 8조 달러가 초단기 레포 시장에서 조달되는 부분을 제외한 것을 문제 삼는다. 국채 평균 만기는 이전 63개월에서 현재 57개월로 낮아졌다고 주장한다. 초장기채 발행 가능성: 50년물이나 100년물 발행 가능성에 대해 현 상황에서는 수요가 매우 제한적이라고 본다. 과거 재무부 내부에서도 검토했으나 시장 수요 부족과 나머지 채권시장 왜곡 우려로 포기했다고 언급한다. 재정 지출: 연방정부 지출이 코로나 이전 GDP의 약 20%에서 현재 약 25%로 늘었다고 지적한다. 우크라이나·이스라엘 지원 1,060억 달러에 대한 상쇄 재원이 없다는 점을 비판하고, 이를 '술 취한 선원처럼 지출한다'고 표현한다. 재정 개혁 방향: 지출 축소를 위해서는 의무지출(연금·의료 등 entitlements) 개혁이 불가피하다고 주장한다. 지금 손대지 않으면 나중에 반드시 일어날 일이라고 강조한다. 금리 리스크: 1.1% 수준의 저금리에서 장기 부채를 발행한 것은 리스크 대비 보상이 매우 불리했다고 평가한다. 미국 가계의 약 80%가 모기지를 차환해 만기를 연장했고, 기업도 같은 방향으로 움직였다고 설명한다. 평균 모기지 만기는 3.5년에서 8년으로 늘었다. 투자 관련 예측 발언(1~3개월 가격 방향): 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 단기 가격 예측은 없음. 미국채 금리에 대해서는 과거 저금리 수준을 언급할 뿐 향후 방향에 대한 단기 예측은 없음. 장기적으로 재정 부담과 금리 리스크를 우려하는 취지만 있음. 리스크: 재정 적자 확대, 장기채 수요 부족, 의무지출 개혁 지연.
다듬은 글
now we're going to get to what you're salivating over Joe I I'm going to let you do it you you go in the sequence you want I just I just they intro it like that go ahead um so at this point in 2021 in the second half yes all right um interest rates on the 10-year are like 1.1 on the 30 year despite having been corrected in a tweet and I was right to be corrected it was not 70 basis points under the um under the B Administration it was let's use one 1.1 that's a more reasonable estimate um by the way the tweet that corrected me on the 30 year is incorrect um it was trading at 166 as a low that period and it was under 18 um plenty of the time the tweet that said that treasury has never managed um the maturity of the debt is also historically incorrect as most of you probably know the fed the treasury Department suspended 30-year auctions in 2001 because term premium was high the Y curve was Steep and they thought it was a useless use of money so um they were reinstated 5 years later um one more thing on this issue um in terms of the maturity of the debt treasury will have you believe and the Tweet used this um that the maturity of the debt is 72 months that conveniently leaves out $8 trillion that is funded overnight in the repo Market that's the FED balance sheet how how much overnight $8 trillion doll that's the FED balance sheet we at duaine use the Consolidated Government debt because we're looking at what what the taxpayers on the hooked for in fact when the Fed was making profits they remitted the money to treasury so why you would leave out in terms of government debt $8 trillion under that the maturity of the debt which was 63 months preco is now 57 months so the statement by the treasury Department and others that the maturity of the debt yeah has increased since since preco is absolutely incorrect all right that's you want something you guys interrup that's like we created 12 million that's the same kind of the question I have putting aside the the yell and I want to get to his answer though whatever no my one question is do you believe that there would be a market for selling much longer term duration bonds either many either many more 30s or going up to 50s or 100s and the reason I asked is that was the implication I think of of what you were saying I made a bunch of calls yesterday and I know that I started reading all these studies and other things that folks inside the treasury Department including under minuchin looked at doing that 50y year in fact I looked and found an interview that minuchin had done with me at a dealbook thing years ago where he wanted to do it but then realized or thought that he couldn't do it because he didn't think that there was enough of a market and that it would actually uh it would it would sort to pervert the rest of the market otherwise um currently no um I think that market would be very challenged in the current environment don't forget um preco we were spending 20% the federal government was 20% of GDP in spending right it's now 25% of GDP as outlined in the Wall Street Journal editorial this morning my father told me if you're the hole stop digging stand all right so I was actually happy to see when the announcement the support for Ukraine and Israel $106 billion and I was waiting to hear what the offset was going to be was it going to be entitlements where were the cuts going to be and the next thing I knew two days later there was not only no offset there was $ 56 trillion in emergency spending I have kids I have grandkids Child Care is not emergency spending it's a priority that maybe should be on the table or not but we are spending like drunken Sailors okay so so do you agree with the house Republican plan which puts forth spending for Israel but cuts it in the ira through funding to the IRS is that an appropriate offset in your mind Becky I want to go after entitlements it's it's where it's where the money is and you're not going to solve this at some point it's going to happen I'm going to I'm going to give you some numbers to tell you why it's it's going to happen no matter what anyway getting back to the question and then I really want to leave it because that's something that's in the past we can't fix it we missed once in a century opportunity and let let's just not everybody else that's your point everybody you know uh extended M mortgages no so so so here's the thing yesterday uh Steve lean said I wanted treasury to trade it's like a hedge fund okay I do not want treasury to be trading and messing around maturity of debt all I'm saying is in 2021 Janet Yellen okay and and minuchin before her we spent $5 trillion the idiots were lined up out there wild to buy treasury debt at at 180 2% whatever you want to call it let's not like play Goa on this one okay or one one .1% with nominal GDP growing at 10% right 10% okay so look it's not like it took Stan driller to figure out that you're at a you're at like a 700-year low in interest rates okay nominal GD GDP is growing 10% um that the risk reward issuing of issuing debt at 1.1% in the 10year is off the charts how off the charts was that risk award 80% of American households 80% refinance their mortgage they lengthen the maturity the average maturity of Mortgage Debt from 3.5 years to 8 years as a consequence it's going to take five years for that maturity to go up to get back to like four and a half so it's it's just huge in corporations in in terms of what they saved
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