저자: Prashant · 외국인
요약 보기
라케시 붐준왈라의 성공은 운과 신뢰(사람을 믿는 태도)가 결합된 결과라는 회고. 개인 투자자에게 팁은 자산을 해치므로 장기 투자자가 되라고 조언. 투자와 트레이딩을 명확히 구분했고 트레이딩은 의견이 아닌 가격 기준으로 손절을 엄격히 하라는 원칙. 인도 시장은 자본 배분이 효율적으로 이뤄져 중국과 달리 장기 성장 여력이 크다는 주장. 예외적으로 복리 성장주는 쉽게 팔지 말라는 메시지.
다듬은 글
Late is not right and late is not right, there is no formula in business, Rakesh Bhaiya also used to tell us that the stock price of people feels that if they have made so much money then there must be some formula, this is not a formula, friend, it is luck and he used to define luck in a different way, you Bhaiya used to come to our office, even today there is a temple there, big believer of God and elders, so he used to define luck and above our temple it is written with God's grace and elders' blessings, that is the same thing friend, I am thinking that Bhaiya had a very unique thing, suppose you are Bhaiya's friend, you Bhaiya had your own room, he was watching all the terminals and you will come and say Rakesh what do you want to buy and suppose at that time Bhaiya was investing in Lupin, this is a real story, I am buying Lupin, if you want to buy, take it, you can go and buy it, I once asked Bhaiya, a CFO of Kolkata had come, he told the exact same story, Bhaiya was buying Lupin I asked him, he said, take Lupin, I was a little ticking back, friend, you are buying, why are you asking him to buy?
So Prashant, if the stock price increased because I bought it, then this market would not be here. Who am I, I am nothing in this market. Lupin's stock price will only increase if the company's performance improves, then the performance will increase. I have a view that probably the performance will be better.
I am taking my risk behind the stock, he is taking his risk. If Lupin's stock price increases, I have zero hand in it. Deshbandhu Gupta and his daughters have done all the work in it. I was lucky that I took a point of view on them. This guy was lucky that I told him that the risk is his, even if he does n't, so friend, what I am trying to tell you is that he used to consistently try to explain to us that in any business, you used to tell us one thing that you always invest in the realm of possibilities.
Here is the flip question. Yes, then how did Rakesh Junjun become such a big brand? Okay, because if Nothing is happening in the market because of their putting in money, according to what you are saying, I don't know if it happens or not, okay, then they are saying that nothing happens because of their putting in their information, they don't have any formula, how many people have earned much more money than they did, correct, but they did not become such a big brand, correct, there are many people who would be kings and queens in the stock market, who earned crores of rupees by manipulating at their own level, not by manipulating, but by genuine luck, what ever, and probably earned more money than Rakesh Jhunjhunwala sir, it is possible, they did not become such a brand, how did just one brand become so big in India, because there was only one person who speaks for himself, he used to wear his heart up his sleeve, I mean, even today, probably our Prime Minister would be more bullish on India than him, but otherwise, I have not seen a bigger bull than him on India, his thinking about where the country will grow, secondly, he was thinking that the country will grow The capital market is very important for growing our GDP.
What is the difference between capital allocation in India and China? In India, the capital markets allocate capital. If you are efficient, you will get money. If I am inefficient, I will not get money. In China, because it is an autocracy, the state allocates capital. So, it makes no difference. That is why China's banks are in trouble.
Indian companies, which are our top 100 companies in Nifty, have the highest RO among any companies in the world. Because the market is allocating capital, if you are efficient, you will get capital. You will start becoming more efficient. Bhaiya, would go and educate Indian investors? He was the first person who would go on CNBC and he would talk about India's structural story.
Why everybody should believe in India? Why everybody should talk about why everybody should invest in Indian stock markets? And he used to tell people that investing is not a part-time job. It is a full time profession, so don't run after tips. Tips are injury to wealth. Sorry, be a long term investor, don't invest your capital.
Give it to mutual fund guys. Those professionals know how to build wealth. Your question is right. So Bhaiya has two business models. One is trading. His capital was built through trading. His wealth was built through investing. Among the very few people I have seen in my life who can build a wall between trading and investing, if you come to our office, we have 10 commandments of trading.
Bhaiya has another 10 commandments of investing. They are not formulaic commandments. So when he trades, his mindset is different. He never does day trading and never does week trading. He does not buy Nifty today to sell tomorrow. He has a view of Nifty and the view is formed on the basis of country's growth what is happening versus the result.
Now if we look at Nifty, there are 30 companies within Nifty, those 30 companies There's profit when you can calculate Nifty's EPS. Nifty trades at a multiple of 1.5 today. As we're speaking, Nifty is trading at a one- year forward price. Today, Nifty is trading at about 18 times 25. Now, in Nifty, the market cap of each company is given a weightage.
Financials have a weightage of 35, Consumer has a weightage of 18. For example, they used to study the balance sheets of each Nifty 30 company. Sorry, what should I say today? Bhaiya, no, Bhaiya, you can ask about the P&L balance sheets and cash flows of Nifty 30 companies. There were eight of us here in research.
We used to study more than eight of us with Rakesh Bhaiya every day. Okay, now, on a basic basis, all the macro information coming out is starting to make a view, man. And secondly, he used to call me Prashant, take me to any country and sit me in front of the screen; we will make money because as a trader, we never trade on opinions.
We trade basis price difference. When they look at the screen, you can see what volume is happening, which stock is increasing, is it increasing or decreasing with the volume. You are taking your decision based on the sentiments of the market which are reflecting in the volume. They never trade on the basis of whether I am right or wrong, if I take my point of view and the market is telling me that my point of view is wrong, then we tighten the stop loss.
So the first commandment of trading was that you trade basis price, not basis opinion. Your first loss is your best loss. We never confused trading with investing, whether it was Rakesh Jajnawala, Radha Kishan Damani, Ramdev Agarwal or Nimesh Shah. I learned one thing from all of them which we could not implement.
Very few decadal compounding stories are found in the world. You will see growth for 5 years, growth for 7 years, but compounding 15-20% for 40 years for decades, if you match. You will be shocked, he had the wisdom to know that if he finds a compounding story then he should not sell it because such an opportunity is available only once or twice in life.
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