저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러 및 미국 국채에 대한 신뢰가 흔들리고 있으며 주요 중앙은행들이 달러에서 금으로 이동하고 있다는 주장. 미국 국가부채(약 38.5조 달러)는 지속 불가능하며, 2008년과 달리 미국 정부 자체가 위기의 중심이 될 것으로 전망. 달러 폭락, 고물가·고금리 속 장기 경기침체를 예상하고, 물가가 2~3배 오를 수 있다고 봄. 금은 5,000달러보다 훨씬 높을 것이라고 주장. 관세와 그린란드 위협 등 트럼프 정책을 비판.
다듬은 글
But at this point, though, I think gold's going a lot higher than 5,000. And that's because between then and now the problems that led me to believe that we'd have $5,000 gold are are are much bigger. You know, we we were able to kick the can down the road for over a decade, but in doing that, all of the problems got much worse.
Uh so, unfortunately, now I think it's going to be a much bigger uh economic crisis. I think we're going to have a dollar and a sovereign debt crisis. And and I think gold is is pretty much a warning that that's what's going to happen. You know, back in um 2007 when the subprime market blew up, that was something that I had been forecasting would happen for years, and I knew that was going to be part of a of a broader financial crisis.
And so, when that happened, I I became, you know, more convinced that you know, the financial crisis was uh going to happen soon, and I was, you know, warning about it. But, you know, most people just believed that what happened with subprime was an isolated event, that it was contained to subprime.
And and I knew that wasn't the case. And I think what we're seeing now in in in the gold market uh is a similar warning. And I think it's also going unheeded, but I think that the crisis that's coming now will be a lot worse than what we had back then. It's not It's not just a mortgage crisis. This is sovereign debt we're talking about.
This is, you know, the United States government uh treasuries uh that are in falling into question and the the value of our currency. Yeah, well, back in 2008, I think the debt was 9 or 10 trillion. Now, it's uh 38 and a half. So, a lot of the situation much of the situation is worse, but people tended to flock to US bond.
But, what what is the happening now with the bond market and uh the US dollar? Do you think it's going to less of a safety net as opposed to what it was back in 2008? Yeah, I mean, I think the world is trying to move away from the US dollar. That's pretty clear with foreign central banks being major buyers of US dollars.
And I think that, you know, the United States has alienated a lot of countries and, you know, created a situation where they have an an added incentive to move away from uh the US dollar as the reserve currency. And so, I think they're accelerating uh that move. And I think that gold is going to be the primary reserve asset to replace the US dollar and US treasuries
uh in in reserve for foreign central banks. And I think that, you know, the the world is going to move away from from the US, and this is going to be a big problem because now the world depend the US, rather, depends on the world. The world supplies us with the goods that we don't produce, and they loan us the money that we don't save.
And without, you know, the world doing that, the US economy does not function. Uh it it's not viable unless we have the world propping it up. I spoke recently to Jim Rogers, and he he's very reluctant to to give any prediction in terms of timing, but uh he, you know, he says, "What what what he knows will come, but and he's not sure when it's going to happen." But but nonetheless, how how can we expect to well, I guess, experience this financial crisis coming our way?
Uh is it I mean, is 2008 still a good model to follow in terms of how it might unravel? No, I think it's going to be very different than 2008 because, again, 2008 was about private credit. It was about mortgage credit. And the US government was able to bail everybody out by substituting its own credit.
But this is very different. This is where the US government is really going to be the epicenter of the crisis. It's the fact that there's been a loss of confidence in the United States' ability to honestly repay its debt. And, you know, to get control of the deficits and, you know, and infla- and inflation.
And so, it's very different. There's, you know, there's no way for the US government to balance itself out. And, uh you know, during the financial crisis, the dollar strengthened. You know, when when we entered the financial crisis, the dollar was at a multi-year low, and it actually got stronger during the crisis, which actually helped mitigate uh the harm.
But, this time, I think the dollar's going to be at the epicenter of the crisis. The dollar is going to be tanking. And that's going to add to the problems. And this is going to fuel uh higher interest rates and higher consumer prices. So, we're going to have a protracted economic downturn, but with high inflation and and higher interest rates.
And it it it could be very high, very high interest rates. But, if people are fleeing the dollar, where where will they go? Is it uh just the metals or crypto or again? Well, I don't think I don't think much of it will go into crypto. I think a lot of it is just going back into their local currencies uh or stronger currencies uh and then gold.
You know, I think central banks will, you know, be more likely to hold gold as a reserve. Uh but, you know, I think, you know, they're they're just going to be uh on balance, you know, not wanting to hold US dollars. You know, it's not like you have to get into anything. You just don't hold dollars.
Well, I mean, nothing lasts forever. We have a tremendous amount of debt in the United States and you know, a crisis was pretty much inevitable. You know, you hear this you you know, Powell said at his most recent press conference again that our debt is on an unsustainable trajectory but that the level of debt is not unsustainable and I I I think he's wrong.
I think the level is unsustainable and we're going to we're going to find that out. Because the reason that they have to keep interest rates so low is because if interest rates normalize, we couldn't afford to service the debt let alone repay the debt. But, you know, whether we end up having hyperinflation in, you know, Weimar Republic the style, you know, I don't know if it's going to get that bad.
It It could. But, I think there's going to be a considerable devaluation of the dollar and that means prices in the United States will rise uh substantially. I I mean a lot more than what we've seen in recent years. I I can see the general price level in the United States doubling or tripling. Uh and and that, you know, that would result in a very substantial decline in the standard of living of of of Americans.
But, it would also result in a in in an increase in the standard of living of of non-Americans. Because as everything got more expensive here, it would get cheaper every place else. So, uh you the the world has a lot to gain uh from from from this. Yeah, I think I think all of this is adding to the problem.
I mean, certainly the threats of invading Greenland uh I think were a real wake-up call as to the real risks to the world of continuing to finance US military uh build-up. I mean, without the world loaning us money, we could not afford uh the military that we have and the fact that we then threatened uh to invade a peaceful country simply because we wanted its territory because we thought it was somehow strategic to the United States.
I I think uh you know, was a huge mistake on the part of on the part of Trump. A- A- As are the tariffs because you know, Donald Trump is vilifying the entire world claiming that the world is ripping off America, taking advantage of America. Uh uh when it's actually the reverse that's true. And the tariffs that he's imposing are of course on Americans.
Uh but it is disruptive to global trade. It's disruptive to companies operating in other countries because it makes their goods, you know, less um affordable to Americans by by raising prices. And and so, you know, I I I it shows that the United States is an unreliable trading partner. And the United States should not have the reserve currency.
Um because the only reason or the reason we have these huge trade deficits is because we have the reserve currency. I mean, that's kind of like the deal. Uh because the only way that you can earn dollars is to have a surplus with the United States. But that benefits the United States because we don't have to produce all this stuff.
We get to consume it but without having to do the hard work of making it. Uh also, we get to borrow a lot of money without having to save it. So, you know, we've got uh the better half of the bargain. And and uh I think we're about to lose that privilege. I think the world uh recognizes finally that that this this um relationship is not advantageous to the rest of the world and they need to move on.
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