저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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찰리 멍거는 인플레이션과 금융 환경에 대해 현재 큰 위험에 직면해 있다고 보며, 다만 과거의 우려 중 일부는 과장되었다고 평가함. 1970년대 볼커 연준의 고금리 정책과 비교하면서, 당시는 정치 간섭 없이 강하게 대응할 수 있었으나 현대 정치인들이 그런 충격적 긴축을 허용할지 의문이라고 말함. 따라서 새로운 위기는 과거와 다른 양상일 것이며 일본처럼 될지 혹은 더 나쁠지 예측하기 어렵다고 함. 일본이 막대한 통화 증발에도 문명국가로 존속한 점을 언급하며, 이자 부담을 화폐 발행으로 해결하는 것은 유혹적이어서 과용되기 쉽다고 경고함. 투자 철학으로는 분산투자가 과도할 필요가 없으며 좋은 자산 4개면 충분하다고 주장. 학계의 완벽한 분산투자 이론은 평균 이상 수익을 얻으려는 투자자에게 맞지 않다고 봄. 장기 주식·부동산 투자에서는 호황과 침체가 번갈아 오므로 이를 견디는 것이 중요하다고 강조함. 향후 50년 후에도 마이크로소프트, 애플, 알파벳은 강할 것으로 예상하나 기술 변화로 기업이 몰락하는 사례(GM, 코닥, 백화점, 신문)도 많아 장기 예측은 어렵다고 함. 팬데믹 이후 원격근무가 정착되어 재택근무가 계속될 것이며, 버크셔처럼 이사회를 최소화해도 효율적으로 운영된다고 언급함. 마지막으로 금융·자산운용 업계의 도덕적 타협과 이사들의 높은 보수가 독립성을 해친다고 비판하며, 기업 경영진이 주주 이익을 희생하는 문화가 인간 본성에 뿌리 깊다고 지적함.
다듬은 글
what makes life interesting is we don't know how it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble I think we also know that some of our earlier fears were were overblown and gram valuation methods dead they'll never die you can't the idea of getting more value than you pay for that's what investment is if you want to be successful you have to get more value than you pay for and so it's never going to be obsolete now you can get a whole body of people that don't even know what they're buying they're just they're just quote quotations I'm a ticker think of the past crazy booms and how they worked out the South Seas bubble the bubble in the late 20s so on and so on we've had this since the dawn of capitalism we've had crazy bubbles what are your current thoughts on the inflationary environment and please compare and contrast it to the 1970s when volcker after the 70s took the primary to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 percent on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of Agony and I certainly hope we're never we're not going there again I think the traffic conditions of the loud Volker to do that without an interference from about politicians were very unusual and I think it in 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new volcker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles we have done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be here whether we're going to be like Japan or or something a lot worse and what makes life interesting is we don't know how it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble I think we also know that some of our earlier fears were were overblown Japan is still existing as a Civilized Nation in spite of unbelievable excessile former standards in terms of money printing think about seductive it is you have a bunch of interest-bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think of how seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments and you use it the money supply goes up it seems like heaven and of course the things get that seductive they're likely to be overused of your a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making and the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco's Chinese stock suit laylu a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if you've got four good assets I think the finance professors and the the sail away idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people get can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments if you're going to invest in stocks for the long term or real estate of course they're going to be periods when there's a lot of Agony other periods when there's a boom and I just have to learn to live through a woman Ms Kipling said treat those two imposters just the same you have to deal with daylight and night I said value very much no sometimes it's night and sometimes it's daylight sometimes it's a boom sometimes it's a bust I'm just I I believe in doing as well as you can and keep going as long as they let you easier to predict who flourished in the past because we know what happened in the past but you know ionic and bear it's going to happen in the future of course that's harder it's very hard for me to imagine doesn't mean it couldn't happen but it's a I would expect microsoften and apple and alphabet to be strong 50 years from now really strong still strong if you'd asked me when I was young what was going to happen to the department stores and wet broke the newspapers which went broke and so I said I would have predicted that either so I think it's hard to predict how your world is going to change if you're going to talk about 70 80 90 years just think imagine they wiped out the shareholders of General Motors they wiped out the shareholders at Kodak who in the hell would have predicted that this technological change can destroy a lot of people and and I it's hard to predict for sure in advance but the telephone company is still with us it's just it's used to use a different way of doing it so some things remain in some vanish what did advice would you give to CEOs seeking to retain their employees well this is a very interesting thing that the pandemic has given us an awful lot of people have gotten used to not being in the office at five days a week and I think a lot of those people are never going back to five days a week it's amazing the percentage of the people in computer science that don't want to be in the office for a normal life they want to do a lot of it from locations that are more convenient to them I think a lot of that's going to remain forever I I don't think we're going back to I don't think the average Corporation is going to fly its directors around so they can sit at the same table for every meeting of the year maybe they'll have two meetings for the directors are together by the way berkshire's director was done that forever The Berkshire directors have met face to face twice a year forever and done everything else on the telephone or with consent minutes and it's worked fine for Berkshire I don't think we needed all these goddamn meetings and airplane flights so I think part of what's happening is quite constructive that you'll get make life simpler and cheaper and more efficient I don't think we're going back for some kinds of work shareholder named Rob writes in he says how do you value Mr Gensler and the sec's role in protecting the Integrity of the American Financial system well it's hard to fix what happens of course is that people rationalize their own way of making a living there's some moral compromise in most activity that people are in or they make a living and particularly so in things like finance and wealth management and so forth and of course the people making the decisions care more about their own families than they care about the people whose money they're managing because that's just the way human beings are constructed and and that means that when you hire somebody else to manage your money to take care of your old age it's very hard to get the job done right it's very difficult and nowadays every director and a big company gets three hundred thousand dollars a year and everything we arranged all this wonderful Independence a man who needs three hundred thousand dollars extra a year as the Director is not an independent but one thing you can guarantee is he'll try and stay a director I don't think that's an ideal system and and yeah I don't think there's anything easy to do about it I just think it's hard to get things managed as well as they should be I was in the early days of my life I was I was a little bit on the fringes of the motion picture industry and I would say practically everyone sort of took advantage of the shareholders and that was just the culture and that is just deeply in the human nature that people are going to behave that way and of course it makes it it makes it hard to run a proper civilization
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