저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜덤은 2021년 버블이 꺼지는 디플레이션·경기침체 국면에 들어섰고 2024년까지 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 경기침체·디플레이션 전망: 이익 감소, 이익률 하락, 경기침체가 깊어져 내년까지 이어질 수 있으며 주가 하락이 동반될 수 있다고 주장. 금리·인플레이션: 과거 10년보다 낮은 인플레이션은 없을 것이며 중간 정도의 고인플레이션과 중간 정도의 고금리 시대로 재진입한다고 봄. 저금리는 자산가격을 올리고 고금리는 내린다는 역의 관계를 근거로 제시. 연준 평가: 연준은 경기침체를 예측한 적이 없고 버블 이후 침체를 대부분 틀렸다고 비판. 버블을 조장하고 자산가격 상승 효과만 챙기며 붕괴 때의 디플레이션 효과는 인정하지 않는다고 지적. 파월 평가: 인플레이션은 파월의 통제 밖 요인이 크다며 그의 대응 방식에 회의적. 투자심리: 이웃이 부자 되는 것을 못 견뎌 버블에 뛰어드는 인간 본성을 경고, 뉴턴의 남해회사 버블 사례 인용. 장기 이슈: 기후변화, 소득불평등, 자원 부족, 인구 문제를 강조하고 그린테크 등 장기 투자 기회에 낙관. 단기 리스크는 신중한 투자 필요. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 주식 하락·경기침체, 장기적으로 친환경·지속가능 투자 기회를 제시.
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once in a blue moon every 20 years or so you'll hit an inflation point that people stop thinking about fundamentals and they just start worrying about how much the stock is going up jury Grantham points out that people tend to shift Focus from fundamentals to obsessing over soaring stock prices every couple of decades due to the fear of missing out this excessive bullishness he says is a natural human trait it's time to dive deep into the insights of Jeremy grantom as he warned everyone about the impending Bubble Burst and what to anticipate deflation and a profound recession that could extend into 2024 on August 19 2023 an article by Will Daniel and Fortune reported legendary investor Jeremy Grantham wsza recession is coming and the fed's rosy forecast is almost guaranteed to be wrong if you follow Financial headlines you've likely seen recession crop up enough times to believe the economy is already in one by the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth the US hasn't gotten there quite yet then again you never know you've had a recession until it's long past and about half of Americans think a recession has already struck jery Grantham also humorously said I always like to say there's nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbors get rich is just irresistible to trying and join in Grand them offers a candid perspective on human behavior in the world of investing it highlights the powerful Allure of wealth accumulation his observation about the Allure of Bubbles and the psychology behind them is fascinating and cautionary he highlights how human nature often drives people to participate in bubbles even against their judgment the historical reference to Isaac Newton's involvement in a bubble is a compelling example of how even the brightest Minds can succumb to the Allure of Market exuberance current currently Grantham holds a strong conviction about how events will unfold now let's make things clear to prepare for the likelihood of deflation and a substantial recession continuing into 2024 as the economic bubble appears poised to burst the forces work I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down gram suggests that we may enter a period of moderately higher inflation and consequently moderately higher interest rates this observation reinforces the notion that economic bubbles are fragile and vulnerable to changes in interest rates when rates rise it often signals trouble for inflated asset prices aligning with the expectation of a looming recession and inflation in 2024 consider grantham's perspective as your magnifying glass helping you see the potential recession and its consequences more clearly Gram's Viewpoint sheds light on crucial aspects of our economic situation especially inflation and its widespread effects as you consider the possibility of a recession extending into 2024 grantham's insights become even more significant Grantham isn't entirely on board with the strategies Jade Powell used suggesting larger economic forces are at play this makes you Ponder the complexity of steering the economy and its potential impact on the duration of the recession grin's track record for making accurate predictions adds weight to his concerns he's analyzed factors like supply chain disruptions Rising inflation and global economic changes showcasing a deep understanding of the situation his experience handling these complex issues lends cred ility to his predictions of a prolonged economic downturn now let's hear Jeremy grantham's take on the current situation he believes we are currently in the midst of a major economic bubble in the United States and he also suggests that the tech bubble has largely burst signaling its potential conclusion I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary per period the deflating period which is a function of uh will the earnings decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline kri grantham's assessment provides a valuable perspective on the current economic landscape he describes our present circumstances as descending from the 2021 market bubble a significant event in recent Financial history Grantham raises important questions are we heading into a deflationary period will company earnings and profit margins decrease could an economic recession be on the horizon these are critical considerations he anticipates the possibility of a prolonged recession stretching into the following year accompanied by a decline in stock prices Gram's analysis is enlightening and a vital reminder of the need for careful planning and vigilance during these uncertain times the Federal Reserve has recently expressed optimism about the US economy suggesting that it has overcome the recessionary challenges and does not foresee another recession however Jeremy Grantham brings an intriguing Paradox in the fed's track record Gram's Insight revolves around the fact that despite being praised for its efforts the Federal Reserve has a history of making incorrect predictions especially when anticipating economic downturns following sign significant market bubbles yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking he further underscores the fed's role in forming these bubbles an overlooked Point notably Grantham points out that the Federal Reserve readily claims credit for the positive impact of surging asset prices on the overall economy however it fails to acknowledge its involvement in the deflationary consequences when these asset prices inevitably decline grin's perspective encourages us to delve deeper into the intricacies of the Federal Reserve policies and actions related related to inflation and economic stability it prompts us to consider the potential complexities and shortcomings in the fed's forecasting abilities and its impact on the financial landscape Jeremy grantham's perspective on Jay Powell the chair of the Federal Reserve and his approach to handling inflation is marked by skepticism he hasn't expressed a favorable opinion of Powell strategies in addressing inflation concerns according to grantom the current inflationary situation isn't enti entirely within Powell's control as various economic factors and forces influence it grantham's Outlook suggests that the era of exceptionally low inflation levels witnessed over the past decade may end instead he foresees a period of moderately higher inflation rates which would lead to moderately higher interest rates this anticipation indicates grantham's concern that the economic landscape is evolving and that inflation and interest rates are rising pranon Viewpoint hinges on a fundamental economic principle the inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices in simpler terms when interest rates are low they tend to boost the value of assets including stocks and real estate conversely higher interest rates have the potential to exert downward pressure on asset prices grin contends that we are now transitioning into an era where interest rates will on average be higher than we've witnessed over the past decade gram concerns about inflation and interest rates reflect his belief that economic Dynamics are changing potentially impacting asset prices and financial markets his cautious stance underscores the need for investors and policy makers to navigate these evolving conditions with vigilance and adaptability lastly Jeremy Gran's commitment to addressing climate change and investing in Green Technology even amid potential Market downturns reflects his forward-thinking approach his concerns about income inequality climate change resource scarcity and population Dynamics remind us of our complex Global issues which could exacerbate economic challenges despite acknowledging the risks of Rapid green investment growth and looming economic difficulties Grandam maintains optimism about emerging Solutions his message encourages a realistic proactive investment strategy to address pressing Global issues Gram's insights from his experience es navigating past Market crisis and his unwavering dedication to addressing critical global concerns like climate change and inequality provide a comprehensive perspective on the challenges ahead while his predictions May raise concerns they underscore the importance of prudent and responsible investing particularly in the face of potential Market upheaval Gram's emphasis on considering broader societal and environmental issues alongside financial decisions highlights their inter dependence and the potential for forward-looking investments in Green Technology and Sustainable Solutions as 2024 is fast approaching it becomes increasingly clear that the Global Financial landscape is undergoing significant Transformations Gram's insights remind you that navigating these changes successfully Demands a deep understanding of market dynamics and a proactive approach to addressing the Urgent Global challenges that shape our world that's it for today Jeremy grantham's insights offer a contemplative outlook on the condition of financial markets thank you for watching stay tuned as I unravel more Market secrets and delve into the minds of financial luminaries always remember knowledge is a source of empowerment and my goal is to empower you don't forget to like subscribe and hit that notification Bell to stay updated with the latest insights on my channel
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