저자: DanIves/PatrickMoorhead · 외국인
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엔비디아 FY25 2분기 실적 전망을 두고 낙관론이 우세. 과거 'whisper' 수치(약 320~340억달러 매출 수준) 대비 호실적 기대, 블랙웰 출시 지연 우려는 해소되는 분위기. 하이퍼스케일러의 대규모 capex(약 1조달러 규모)가 12~18개월간 지속되며 AI 인프라 수요가 이어질 것으로 봄. 성장 영역은 Tier2 CSP, 기업용(Enterprise), 랙·네트워킹·소프트웨어 등 콘텐츠 확대. 경쟁은 AMD·인텔이 있으나 시장 성장으로 영향 제한적이라는 시각.
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Dan IES let's start off with you talk to me about earnings what are your thoughts I mean I look I get in terms of like people will pick about whisper numbers for the October quarter and to me it's a masterpiece I mean in other words like there's no way that you could deny this revolution's happening and I think it's not just about the numbers that they put up in terms of 30 billion 32 and a half that's probably going to be Clos to 34 billion Blackwell delays all the sort of noise put that to rest by stock takes a little breather it gets hit a bit I think it goes High I think it's an all time it goes into all-time highs and this thing gains theme because the most important thing and I think you guys have talked about it it's derivative second third fourth what does it say for Salesforce service now paler Microsoft Oracle hyperscalers it's a trillion dollars of capex it's a fourth Industrial Revolution you come off at call I think it's more of a you get the popcorn ready and now it's waiting for the second third fourth derivatives yeah I'll I'll double down on that I mean I've talked about Network effects I've said you know we've seen zero Net Zero net one so all the designers chip manufacturers everybody involved in this in the semiconductor supply chain should be doing well the ones that are going to do well are doing well and then you got kind of this flow out the oems you know we've seen some boom bust they've got to figure how to add more value make more money but they're getting the opportunity being by being attached the the Dells and HPS super they it's up to them to figure how to attach the services the layering of the cake with the devices we just talked about with the uh applications talked about you know service now Raptor the now platform Salesforce benof came out this week really ambitious but look the other thing and know this will be my I know we only have a few minutes I want to make sure Pat you get to talk before Dan has to leave but is is I'm I'm really get frustrated with this whole you know kind of people looking at a Digest you know this is not the internet cycle we not going to see this thing implode the way the internet imploded this is it's a different cycle there is a digestion period when you spend a 100 to 200 billion in capex you cannot stand that up offer services instantaneously show revenue and SAA zck the Sundar they're all basically sitting there they're saying we will not let this cause our Demise by not investing enough they all understand it and so when all the Bears are like oh there's no one using it first of all Pat you gave a bunch of great instances where they are and that's just BS they are using it but we do need to understand there is digestion between uh the the the capex in and the Opex out no this is good stuff and listen I I I knet it out like this there's nothing stopping this train for 12 to 18 months Downstream does not matter for 12 to 18 months you've got hyperscaler fomo right nobody whether it's meta Microsoft Google Amazon it's pedal of metal on capex you know and until we see investors their investors demanding produced capex uh the beat really goes on and I I want to hit the growth areas really quickly that I don't think people are fully comprehending the first one is the first buildout was with the hyperscalers the next buildout is in tier 2 csps and we heard Dell talk about this last night and you know let's put super micro aside for a second but super micro and Dell are the two c uh tier 2 CSP uh drivers the third element is is the Enterprise and we saw a little bit of that outline and right now you know as Dell's Jeff Clark said the Enterprise is really in Phase zero moving into phase one of PS uh third growth area is content right they're not just selling GPU chips they're selling racks they're selling trays they're selling GPU chips they're selling multiple networking ships and oh by the way they're selling cables and let's not forget software every new generation including Blackwell uh we have seen uh Nvidia sell more software and that software started off you know 15 years ago it's low-level drivers and here we are with Blackwell generation called Nims and these are actually microservices applications you're seeing them be spit out or cranked out by multiple isvs and this is essentially the easy button for um driving this forward yes there's competition but it's not going to matter because the market is growing so heavily biggest competitor are hyperscaler their own custom Asic uh AMD is the closest direct competitor and they will likely in the year I believe at a 10% market share not for the whole year but but ending their calendar year uh we will see Intel likely making an impact in 25 and 26 they're making a small impact with current gouty today but it's only at $500 million and compare that to amd who's at $4.5 uh billion forecast all right guys Dan we gotta get you out here to go on more TV shows talk to uh you know all I'm going to Asia I'm going to Asia again this week so again it comes down to like that's where like I always say you can find AI Revolutions in the 10th floor of your office building a Metro North for Jersey Transit and that's why I think many of the Bears they continue to focus on their spreadsheets and try to find AI in their spreadsheets hey hey Dan just as as you run off two things one is I'll be I'll be running to Berlin for uh I'll be I'll be at EA checking out what they're doing on these devices but Pat I think we need to give Pat a shout you know I I need to commend this this nerd you know we were gen we were gening what sort of differentiates each of us as analysts we're having a little fun and Pat is the Deep technical guy did you see this guy call out the mask change on Fort he called out the mask change in real time I appreciate that but look Pat Patrick's like here oh my rose let me deal with this well it was kind of funny now I felt a little bad because I literally brought this out live on CNBC nobody was talking about it stock dips and I'm reading from uh uh CFO uh and it's like what's a mask set and it was funny I was like I've never really had to explain a mask set I I tripped little bit and then about a minute later deep di I listen I try to I really do try to simplify man you said Bloomberg's headline said that they had a mass change they didn't Jensen said I know but the headline was mass change Mas change all right guys thank you so much for having me awesome thank you for everyone watching take but take care buddy there we go Dan IES that was fun now it's back to us this is good no I appreciate by the way Bloomberg uh deleted uh deleted that tweet did they did they yeah that was a m that was actually not just a tweet though Pat that was actually the name of the the article there was an article headline and then it was the whole thing so I mean look I I actually will tell you I listened to him and if you were if you're not a real techie and you're not familiar with what a mask change is and I mean I know more about it now than I ever did I'd heard the term that was as far as I'd really ever spent you know um and you listen to Jensen you might not have heard that clearly on the first listen yeah so every chip change that you make that's that uh I'll call it a metal spin as opposed to like a poly poly spin needs a new mask and a mask is what is created to go into a Foundry like tsmc Samsung Foundry and IFS
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