저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏 발언 중심 인플레이션 환경 기업 분류 강의다. 결론: 인플레이션에는 일회성 투자로 끝나는 브랜드·부동산형 사업이 유리하고, 지속적 설비투자가 필요한 공익·철도 사업은 불리하다. 자본집약 사업: 설비투자가 계속 필요하고 감가상각이 부족하면 실제 경제적 이익을 과대평가하게 되어 인플레이션 시기에 나쁜 사업이다. 부동산: 한 번 지은 집은 인플레이션에 따라 대체가치가 올라 유리하다. 버핏 본인과 찰리 멍거의 사례를 들었다. 브랜드: 강한 브랜드는 인플레이션 중 가치가 증가한다. 시즈캔디 브랜드는 오랜 기간 육성되어 가치가 커졌다. 질레트 사례: 1939년 월드시리즈 라디오 중계권 10만 달러 투자가 이후 면도기·면도날 판매로 1960~80년대까지 수익을 냈다. 인플레이션 극단 위험: 통제 불능 인플레이션은 결과 예측이 어렵고, 바이마르 인플레이션과 대공황이 히틀러 등장으로 이어졌다는 역사적 경고를 했다. 멍거 발언: 인플레이션을 원하지 않는다고 말하며 시즈캔디에 좋은 것이 미국에도 좋다는 식으로 말하다 정정했다. 언급 종목: 시즈캔디·질레트 등 개별 브랜드 언급이 있으나 한국 종목이나 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 리스크: 인플레이션 장기화 시 자본집약 사업의 수익성 악화와 통제 불능 인플레이션의 사회적 위험이 있다. 출연자 전망: 특정 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없고 장기 사업 구조에 대한 견해만 제시되었다.
다듬은 글
any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it's a poor business to be generally uh and the business where you where you buy something once uh a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation which of berkshire's businesses are best suited to thrive during a period of high inflation and why which will suffer and suffer the most and why yeah well the best businesses inflation enduring inflation are usually the best they're the businesses that you buy once and then you don't have to keep making capital investments subsequently so you you you get you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation uh that's one reason real estate in general is good during inflation if you built your own house 55 years ago like charlie did or bought one 55 years ago like i did uh it's a one-time outlay whereas if you're and you get the in you get an inflationary expansion in replacement capital without having to replace yourself and if you've got something that's useful to someone else it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time so you really get the inflationary kick now if you're in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business it just keeps eating up more and more money and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you're kidding yourself as to your real economic profits so any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it's a poor business to be generally and the business where you where you buy something once uh a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation you know see's candy built their brand many years ago now we've had to nourish it as we've gone along but the value of that brand uh increases uh during inflation just as the value of really any any strongly branded goods gillette bought the entire radio rights to the world series in 1939 and as i remember it cost them a hundred thousand dollars and for that they they got to broadcast the yankees i think versus the reds in 1939.
and think of the number of impressions they made on mines in 1939 dollars for a hundred thousand dollars and they were getting into the minds of young guys like myself i was eight or nine and millions of people and they did it in those dollars then and of course if you're going to go out and try to have a similar impressions on millions of minds now it costs a fortune and part of that's due to inflation part of us did other things but it was a great investment which could be made in 1939 dollars that paid off in terms of selling selling razors and blades in 1960 and 1970 and 1980.
uh so that's the kind of business you want to own charlie well yeah but if the inflation ever goes completely out of control you have no idea how it's going to end up if it weren't for the weimar inflation we might never have had adolf hitler it was the twosome of the great german inflation followed by the great depression that brought us hitler and think of the price that the world paid for that one we don't want inflation because it's good for seized candy i didn't quite realize i was i was criticizing what's good for c's candy is good for the united states
Comments 0