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찰리 멍거 사망 및 버크셔 해서웨이 기여를 다루고, 연준 매파 인사들의 금리 동결 신호와 빌 애크먼의 조기 금리 인하 베팅을 소개. 또한 UBS의 크레딧 스위스 사태 이후 AT1 채권 시장 회복과 그 의미를 정리한 뉴스 브리핑. 결론: 연준 금리인상 사이클 종료 기대가 커지는 가운데, 애크먼은 인하가 시장 예상보다 빨리 올 것이라 주장. 연준 및 금리: 웰러 총재는 인플레이션이 2%로 가고 있다고 확신하며 정책이 충분히 긴축적이라 평가했고, 보우먼 총재는 인플레 둔화가 멈추면 인상을 지지할 수 있다고 함. 시장은 6월 첫 인하를 거의 완전히 반영 중이며 5월 인하 확률은 약 80%로 제시됨. 빌 애크먼: 연준이 생각보다 빨리 인하를 시작할 가능성이 있으며, 중간 이상 시기보다 1분기 등 이른 시점이 더 가능성 높다고 봄. 경기 연착륙 실패(hard landing) 리스크와 미국 경기 약화 증거를 언급. 버크셔 해서웨이: 멍거 사망 후 1965~2022년 주가 상승률(약 380만 달러 대 S&P500 약 2.5만 달러)을 언급하며 장기 성과를 강조. 발언 자체는 과거 성과이며 가격 예측 아님. AT1 채권: 스위스 UBS의 대규모 AT1 발행에 360억 달러 주문이 몰리며 시장이 회복. 바클레이즈·산탄데르 등도 발행에 성공. 은행 자본비용과 수익성에 긍정적이나, 영구 상각 등 예측하기 어려운 리스크는 여전히 존재한다는 평가. 기타 뉴스: 알왈리드 왕자의 시티그룹 지분 4.5억 달러 추가 매입(지분율 2.2%), 이스라엘-하마스 인질 석방 및 휴전 연장, 블링컨 국무장관 중동 방문 예정, 모건스탠리 1.4백만 유로 보너스 소송, 런던 블랙캡의 우버 앱 연동 계획. 출연자 전망: 웰러·보우먼은 금리 인상 사이클 종료 쪽 신호, 애크먼은 조기 인하 전망. 나머지 진행자 발언은 뉴스 전달 위주.
다듬은 글
good morning it's Wednesday the 29th of November here in London this is the blueb Daybreak here podcast I'm Caroline heare and I'm Steven Carol coming up today Charlie Munger the man who helped Warren Buffett build Burkshire halfway into an Empire has died at the age of 99 two fed Hawks hint at a rate hold as Bill Amman tells Bloomberg he believes a cut is coming soon Plus Credit who the 81 bond market bances back after its credit swe and Juiced implosion let's start with a Roundup of our top stories the FED investor Charles Munga has died at the age of 99 as Warren Buffett's right-hand man for almost 60 years he helped transform Burkshire hathway from a failing textile maker into a global conglomerate blimber intelligence's senior analyst Matthew palazola remembers the pair's special relationship for the company that they've built you know they talked about it actually being quote easy you know which is uh I guess a very humble understatement but I think they buy good companies they let them run and you know this machine they've built will will go on for you know all time really blomberg intelligence is Matthew palazola they're talking about Charlie monga's impact on Burkshire Hathaway between 1965 and 2022 the firm's share price Rose by 3.8 million per that's compared to a gain of almost 25,000 per for the S&P 5 00 two of the federal reserve's most hawkish rate Setters have signaled that they could be comfortable holding steady for now the comments reinforcing expectations that the central bank's current hiking cycle is over here's what governor Christopher Waller told the American Enterprise Institute in Washington I am increasingly confident the policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2% Waller's view was echoed by fellow fomc memb Governor Michelle Bowman who says she remains willing to support rate hikes if inflation progress stalls but stopped short of endorsing an increase next month well meanwhile the billionaire investor Bill Amman is betting that the FED will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting and policy makers are signaling speaking to David Rubenstein for Bloomberg the persing square founder said that such a move could happen in the coming months I think there's a a risk of a hard landing at the Fed doesn't start cutting rates you know pretty soon so you I think the market expects sometime middle of next year I think it's more likely probably as early as q1 Bill amman's comments are at odds with traders who are fully pricing in a First Rate cut in June with the chance of a cut in May at about 80% the activist investor also told David rubenstein's peer-to-peer conversation that he's already seeing evidence of a weakening US economy Sai Prince aled B talal has sold a $450 million stake City Group to his investment company Kingdom Holdings the share Pur purchase raises the Kingdom's stake in the bank to 2.2% Al Willi's relationship with City Group dates back to 1991 when he invested $590 million to become the bank's largest shareholder his stature on the global investment stage has faded since 2017 when he was temporarily imprisoned without charge as part of an anti-corruption drive by the sad Crown Prince Israel says that Hamas has turned over 12 more hostages to the Red Cross the release comes despite earlier competing claims of violations of the temporary truce in the war that agreement has been extended by two days and is now due to end tomorrow morning this Gaza resident says he wants the Ceasar to continue thank goodness now we're in the truce and hopefully the truce will be the long one to be honest with you Gaza has become uninhabitable the voice there of someone living in Gaza us officials are seeking to further extend the ceasefire and hostage releases Secretary of State Anthony blinkin is due to visit Israel and the West Bank later this week Morgan Stanley is trying to overturn a French Court ruling ordering it to pay 1.4 million euros in bonuses to a banker who quit the firm the case at the Paris court of appeals is considering whether or not the bank can refuse to pay a bonus once an employee has resigned through Lin could of major repercussions for other top banks in France lawyers for the former employee say the bonus is performance B and that French law prevents requiring staff to stay on in order for it to be paid and finally London's iconic black cabs will be available on Uber for the first time Bloomberg's TI adabo has the details once sworn enemies London's cabes have consistently protested against Uber's presence in the city hundreds of black cab drivers demonstrated in London in 2014 as part of europe-wide protests against the app citing loss of business and safety issues but from next year Uber will offer customers the option of choosing a black cab and it's more than 15,000 taxi drivers Steve macdara General Secretary of trade body the licensed taxi drivers Association criticized the plans saying no taxi trade groups were consulted before the announcement the move is the latest step in the company's aspirations to become a One-Stop Transportation destination in London tiwa adab bio Bloomberg Radio now in a moment we'll be discussing the Revival of a market that many had presumed dead the riskiest banking debt 81s are back Switzerland's at the heart of it we'll be speaking to our credit reporter tassos vasos about that in just a moment but first the investment world of course mourning the loss of Charlie Munger the man who helped build Berkshire Hathaway over almost 60 years also King of the onliners as we heard from so many of those investment meeting in Omaha as well Casino in drag he wants describe derivatives trading desks as he talked about digital assets being partly fraud and partly delusion you know which is just amazing isn't it what a quip yeah I mean look he he was somebody who was very well known to those who invested in Burkshire Hathaway those in the investment Community but also the groupies as he described them those who lose to turn out for the Burkshire Hathaway agms and in Nebraska every year we've got Bloomberg's Charlie Wales with us who's been uh looking into this story for us um an extraordinary Life Charlie that Charlie Munger had um sharp wit ability to deliver outsize returns too yeah you know in the end it goes back to Poker I think that really is the strategy that helped make Charlie Monger so successful so born in Omaha in 1924 famously the same Hometown as Warren Buffett he was stationed in Gnome Alaska during World War II and that is where he learned this game and the strategy and I think that's really informed his business strategy going forward was sort of twofold if you need a fold fold early he said but if you have the upper hand keep it and go even bigger and you really see that from the time he was in World War II to the time that he died yesterday um looking for companies that were not just undervalued but also excellent that had pricing power that really could you know have brand recognition and this you know ranges from the likes of se's candies and that is a sectioner that I grew up with in California that they invested in in 1972 to the likes of Coca-Cola yeah absolutely look it helps that he was a math genius right he talked about being able to Ace pretty much any math course when he was a a young man it is one I think of any business journalists um sort of uh enormous misses if you didn't manage to get to Omaha Nebraska and see one of those huge events with thousands of um Burkshire hathway invest is there just to sort of get close to that magic that magic Duo really of Charlie Munga and ju Buffett what do you think his investing philosophy was how different was it to Buffett because he's seen very much also as someone who was the foil to Buffett too yeah one time Buffett actually called merer The Abominable no man because he you know said no to a lot of things and he in a lot of ways could keep Buffett focused you know Warren Buffett famously likes attention and he's okay to be front and center whereas Munger you know from Omaha relocates to Los Angeles and stays there for much of his life he actually passed away in a hospital in Santa Barbara but as far as their philosophy I think it was keeping each other honest and from the moment that they met in sort of a chance encounter in Omaha 1959 um you know really until the day that he died they spoke almost daily on the phone for hours and Buffett has said that you know they could really finish each other's sentences so I think it was keeping each other on having difficult conversations with each other even though their views very often from investing to politics were very different yeah was there ever tension in that relationship Charlie that's a really good point I mean they never had an argument famously but they did disagree and there were often points when Monger would tell Buffett you know I'm right and you're smart and so that's sort of you know it sounds positive but it Al also sounds negative and I think um you know the ability to kind of seek out Investments and kind of like change Warren Buffett's investment strategy so when he started out Buffett himself said he sort of invested in what would be thought of as cigarette butt company so these sort of failing firms that weren't uh that were cheap um and Munger famously helped kind of pivot that strategy basically saying to Buffett forget what you know about buying Fair companies at wonderful prices you need to look for wonderful companies at fair prices yeah and didn't they make unbelievable rich returns with that strategy I mean over a course of close to 60 years to double the return every single year what the S&P 500 average was is pretty staggering Charlie thank you so much for being with us uh this morning looking back at the life of Charlie Monga of course um the the man who helped to build Burkshire hathway into the uh well one of the most well-known um successful firms in the US okay that's blomberg's Charlie Wells there now to a story about risky bonds that were decimated by the implosion of credit s but are now back the market for European Banks Junior Bank debt has been on fire this month at Switzerland's UBS ending the cycle that began with the rescue deal for credit s requiring the Wipeout of billions of bonds we've got Bloomberg credit Market reporter tasus voses with us now for more tasus good morning to you why are these bonds Aller AG now uh good morning thanks for having me well the very short um answer to that is $36 billion and that's the amount of orders that ubs's deal received when they first come to the market which is unheard of by any bond standards really so um this is showed that demand was there people were waiting to buy at the right price they were just waiting for the right time and UBS came gave people this extraordinary number which emboldened other Banks to come through so we had other Banks from Barkley Sant andere coming to the market as well and the response was very similar billions of dollars of orders placed again for these bonds that people thought they were dead earlier this year yeah absolutely it's so different from the start of the year I mean we remember reporting on the Swiss authorities imposing the losses on credit SS Bond holders I mean it was it was um quite kind of tense that moment wasn't it it there was a lot of reporting around what was going to happen to credit s Bond holders so how is it so different earlier this year well actually I remember people saying that the at1 market is dead and just really quickly that that market was introduced out of the global financial crisis we had other iterations of weird bonds back in the day in order to provide capital for banks but during the global financial crisis around Leeman burs they failed to Shield um taxpayers taxpayers were on the hook for that so um you the global mines came together and said let's create a new Bond 81 and that's it we don't need to create anything else credit race came up and people thought that failed as well we need to come up with something else so for 3 months you actually had no issuance in the market then you started seeing Banks coming back uh and people were getting more uh comfortable that credit Swiss was a oneoff related just to this bank and not to this type of bonds but you needed a splash out there and ironically that came from UBS uh which comes from a jurisdiction where people said I don't like Switzerland anymore from what the for what they you know imposed to me back in March and to see that kind of demand for that just as as he said before just end the cycle that began in March why does all this matter to Banks then Tas well it's because uh Regulators impose Capital requirements to Banks so they have to hold some money aside in order you just to cover some Sour um trade like loans uh so in order to do that they can use equity uh or they can use what what people call weird stuff weird stuff can be for example additional te one Bond these tend to be cheaper than equities so profitability of a bank gets a boost on the basis of that if they can't use it if they can't use 81 and they can only use equity then the cost of capital becomes higher profit profitability goes lower and you know that could have adverse effects for the economy as a whole if sustained over a long period of time so the fact that 81 are back and people buying it is actually quite good for the banks okay that's interesting about why it matters to Banks then so so then is there another risk though of a credit Swiss style Wipeout happening I mean supp there's always the risk of it happening but what what do investers think about it well there's also the interminable um experience in the market something bad happens we do everything to fix it and then something else that is B happens in the future that was unexpected and it feels that we are heading towards that direction as well so the thing that triggered the losses and people17 billion do of C bonds went up in smoke and they never coming back is a feature called permanent triy down that is something that people hated that were stung back in March they asked UBS to remove it UBS took steps to remove it um and that nobody else has a permanent dry down out there in the market so the thing is that if we see another credit Swiss put in a right down style loss no the problem is that we can see something else that's unexpected and the 81 bonds have so many levers out there so many features that you don't you're never really sure where you're going to get hit um so that is that is the the the main risk in the market whether a bank is going to fail in Europe among big Banks people say no at least not in the near term maybe um people looking at the midsize and smaller Banks but yeah that's the that's the main risk in the market as always um we stung by credit Swiss nobody expects another exact example like credit swis but something else may come in the future this is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe your morning brief on the stories making news from London to Wall Street and Beyond look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts you can also listen live each morning on London dab radio the Bloomberg business app and bloomberg.com our Flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices just say Alexa play Bloomberg 1130 I'm Caroline HEPA and I'm Steven Carol join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
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