저자: Bloomberg기자EdLudlow/ARKInvestCEOCathieWood · 한국인
요약 보기
니콜라(Nikola) 창업자 트레버 밀턴이 2016년 공개한 프로토타입 트럭이 실제로는 구동 불가능한 '푸셔(pusher)'였다는 블룸버그 보도를 다룬다. 보도 내용: 취재원에 따르면 트럭에는 모터·기어·연료전지 등 핵심 부품이 빠져 있었고 스스로 움직일 수 없어 무대에 밀어 올려졌다. 밀턴은 부품 제거가 안전상 이유였다고 해명하며 기만은 없었다고 주장. 회사 계획: 독일 CNH 산업 계열과 합작해 배터리 전기 세미트럭을 먼저 만들고, 애리조나에 수소연료전지 트럭 공장을 짓는다는 계획. 매출은 2023년경부터 기대. 수소 충전 네트워크 구축도 목표. 테슬라 비교: 테슬라 상장 10주년 시점에 니콜라가 배지(Badger) 픽업 선주문을 받기 시작했다는 맥락을 함께 다룸. 테슬라 시총은 상장 당시 약 17억 달러에서 약 1,840억 달러로 성장. Cathie Wood 주장: 수소는 충전 인프라 비용이 전기의 5~10배, 소비자 연료비는 약 3배로 전기보다 불리하다고 봄. 니콜라 시총 약 240억 달러는 2024년 현금흐름 대비 약 110배로 고평가이며, 테슬라 베어케이스는 7~8배 수준이라고 비교. 리스크/전망: 경영진이 철강·알루미늄·천연가스 등 성숙 산업 출신이라 지수적 성장 기술 전환 역량에 의문. Wood는 니콜라가 성공하지 못할 것이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
foreign moving on now to a bloomberg scoop the founder of the electric trucking company nicola exaggerated the capabilities of the debut truck our ed ludlow broke this story and joins us now ed what can you tell us about what happened here so on december the 1st 2016 in salt lake city trevor milton who is nikolas founder and now executive chairman unveiled the nikola one the company's first prototype truck and it was displayed as a hydrogen fuel cell ev and at the time he told the audience that they had to chain the the truck down to stop it being driven off by you know people in case they drove it off the stage he said that it was not a pusher which is industry parlance for basically meaning a prototype that cannot operate under its own power it needed to be pushed onto the stage what sources told me is that that's exactly what it was it was an inoperable prototype that it had several components missing from it including the components relating to the motor the gears and the fuel cell at the heart of the hydrogen system there was no fuel cell in it according to sources uh that and so it was you know essentially uh immovable you know as sources describe it um and i guess it's important to add that that trevor milton when i spoke to him this morning pushed back against that saying that he he had never deceived anyone but he did you know say at that time and in interviews the following day that it was a working operational vehicle right so how does he explain some of these inconsistencies then i mean this is a company that has taken off in part because of how this truck was debuted and is considered you know a potential real competitor or has been considered a potential real competitor to tesla so he says on the fuel cell that there was no fuel cell in that prototype but he also says that he never said there was a fuel cell within it there was a last minute pivot several weeks before the event where they moved from a natural gas system to a hydrogen fuel cell system but he says he never actually stated that there was a fuel cell inside that prototype he said that the components that i mentioned that we believe to be missing were removed on purpose for safety reasons so what is nicola actually then plan to do what's next so nicholas got different stages of goals the first is to build a battery electric semi truck which it's doing as a joint venture with cnh industrial or vecco in germany and a plant in germany which is already built and that will be a sort of cooperation with another company at the same time they're looking to build a factory in arizona about 30 miles south of phoenix where they will eventually build a hydrogen fuel cell semi truck but that is much further into the distance they're not expecting to make any serious revenue on any of these products until around 2023 so these are sort of more realistic goals but the big umbrella point that a lot of people are picking up on is that nikola wants to develop a hydrogen network that it can use to fuel these hydrogen fuel cell trucks if you imagine just as you go to the gas station to get gas for your car they want to have a broad network across the united states and beyond of hydrogen stations yes when people look at the list of investors that that are part of this ipo they'll be amazed at the quality and strength of the investor group in tesla that was tesla ceo elon musk speaking to our own phil labo 10 years ago today when tesla went public at the nasdaq market site in times square a lot has happened since that ipo the stock has gone from 17 bucks a share to nearly a thousand dollars its market cap has exploded from just 1.7 billion at the time of the ipo to almost 184 billion in the gains a monstrous 5 837 percent over the past decade tesla's big anniversary comes the same day ev maker nikola starts taking pre-orders for its badger pickup truck we spoke with nikola founder and executive chairman trevor milton on friday and he was pretty excited it's the coolest electric truck pickup truck the world's ever seen so yeah it's a big day on monday and also those reservations turn into um tickets for nikola world happening december when we show off the badger so it's just the next four or five months is just going to be a an incredibly fun time the coolest electric pickup truck the world has ever seen except for the world hasn't actually seen it because it hasn't actually been made yet minor detail but the question here is can it take on tesla cyber truck let's bring in kathy woods ceo and cio at arc invest kathy great to have you with us thank you melissa very happy to be here your firm sounds very skeptical based on the research reports i've read about nikola of nicola and i'm wondering in your view what is different from nikola today versus tesla went an ipo 10 years ago and it only had a roadster in times square sure uh well i think the biggest difference is uh the right technology um we did a um a you know white white sheet of paper research at the beginning of arc and just mapped out uh what a uh an electric vehicle cost decline would look like uh versus a hydrogen and as we were doing that research we realized there the infrastructure alone uh for hydrogen fueling stations is going to be 5 to 10 times as expensive as the infrastructure for electric and then from the consumer's point of view it is going to cost roughly three times as much so this is a 700 000 mile truck lease and if you if you tally up the cost to the trucker for the hydrogen it will be three times as much as the cost would be for electricity so the technology is what tesla got right is there no economy of scale once that infrastructure is put in place down the line because what's different about nikola also is that they're selling basically a bundle where you have the truck and they're also selling the fuel at the same time so if they can get that cost of the fuel down the hydrogen down that that's just money that they that they capture yeah if they're able to do that we don't think they uh will be able to do that but let's just take the assumptions that they made on the i or in preparing for the ipo and you take uh take their cash flow out in 2024 where you know they've got everything um moving their way uh perfectly and what we have here now is a stock selling at 24 billion dollars market cap for about 110 times cash flow and if you take tesla by comparison today our bear case without ride hailing is seven to eight times cash flow in uh 2024 and if you include ride hailing which we think they will launch this year uh and that's human-driven ride-hailing uh it's five to six times cash flow so there's just no comparison you know the other interesting thing is this management team has come from the old world i mean i'm looking at steel and aluminum and natural gas and you know those are mature industries we're talking about uh exponential growth here and that's their attempt we don't think they will succeed uh but we don't think they've got the right dna to begin with tesla is
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