저자: 올바로 · 한국인
요약 보기
결론: 폭락장에서 전량 매도가 답인지에 대한 고민과, 케네스 피셔의 약세장 관점 및 단기 하락 원인 해설을 중심으로 한 투자 심리·기업분석 강조 영상. [시장 상황] 테슬라가 며칠간 하락해 300달러 선까지 밀렸고, 전날 고점에서 매수한 투자자들은 불안한 하루를 보내고 있다고 진단. [매도 vs 관망 논의] 매수는 과학, 매도는 예술이라는 말을 인용하며 매도가 본질적으로 더 어려운 작업이라고 강조. [피셔의 약세장 관점] 케네스 피셔의 약세장·하락장에 대한 생각을 소개하며 영상 후반에 관련 영상을 함께 보자고 예고. [하락 원인에 대한 여러 해석] - Short 1 Capital Partners: 과도하게 오른 주가가 조정받는 중. - Stie Pere Beni-Benni: 대규모 유동성과 알고리즘 매매가 겹치며 컴퓨터 주도 리밸런싱이 발생. - Ed: 미·중 관계 악화가 대형 기술주 비용 부담으로 이어져 나스닥에 타격. - Jayce Knife: 큰 상승 뒤 나타난 매도 압력이 원인이며, 전날 밤의 급락은 일시적 차익실현 리밸런싱. - LPL 전략가: 누군가 '불이야'라고 외치자 모두 도망가는 것과 같은 군중 심리. [투자 방법론] 하루에 집중할 수 있는 에너지에는 한계가 있어 시장 분석보다 기업 분석에 더 집중한다고 설명. 경영진 이력, 공시, 뉴스, 커뮤니티 리뷰, 제품 평판, 산업 성장성(태양광은 BNEF, 맥킨지 자료 참고), 기술적 해자, 실적의 안정성·성장성 등을 점검. 적자 기업 투자는 피하고 모멘텀이 있거나 이미 흑자이면서 성장하는 기업을 선호. 포트폴리오 규모는 자신의 자금 여력에 맞춰 결정. [결론 및 조언] 소음에 집중하기보다 기업을 다시 공부하는 시간을 갖자고 제안. 확신이 있는 기업이라면 세일 기간처럼 분할 접근하는 방법이 좋다고 조언하며 마무리.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Olbaro. Following up on yesterday, I would like to share a few thoughts in advance, as I anticipate many of you will feel anxious once the market actually opens. Tesla has been falling for several consecutive days, and yesterday it entered the market at the $300 mark. Those who invested at a temporary peak are likely spending a very nerve-wracking day.
What I want to talk about today is my thoughts on whether selling everything is the answer in the face of violence. I have also heard the saying that buying is a science and selling is an art. Selling is inherently the more difficult task. Towards the end of today, I would like to discuss what Fisher Investors, whom I admire, has to say.
I would like to talk about his thoughts on a bear market, or a downturn. When experiencing such a sharp decline, you can always sense that people feel panic. You can feel it just by looking at news headlines or observing the various reactions of the public. I imagine that when you first started investing in US stocks, you began with the goal of long-term investment, but despite that, it doesn't seem to be easy.
Let's stay calm and think about this once again. Luck is 70%, skill is 30%, and one must do their part and leave the rest to heaven—these are the two [things]. The point I wish to make through these commonalities is this: in this world, there are inevitable things that cannot be achieved solely by one's own power.
However, what is the nature of human beings? Even while knowing this, they intensely dislike anxious environments. That is why people constantly seek reasons. In reality, there have been countless coincidences throughout history; even if they were determined by a series of coincidences, we want to leave behind lessons from the past.
Preconceptions and prejudices are also natural defense mechanisms for human psychological stability. Let's look at sports athletes. National treasure center Seo Jang-hoon used to throw away his uniform if he lost a game, and his habit of keeping everything neat and tidy also originated from superstitions.
Golfer Tiger Woods did not care during standard matches, but he wore red in the finals. When our anxiety is extreme, we tend to keep superstitious elements close at hand and rely on them, such as fortune telling, blood type, and zodiac signs. If you look closely at the "king of declines" from the day before yesterday and yesterday, there are various interpretations.
There are always hundreds of reasons for a decline. Short 1 Capital Partners ST Number Eyes argues that stock prices that have risen excessively are now undergoing a correction. Tech stocks showed tremendous performance, but now they are unsustainable. They say the price has been reached. And Stie Pere Beni-Benni argues that an algorithm-driven cyclical market has unfolded.
Due to the convergence of large liquidity and algorithms, "buy this stock because it hasn't risen yet" and " sell this stock because it has risen too much" are mixed, which is essentially computer-driven rebalancing or something similar. In fact, there is much talk overseas that 70-80 percent of stock trading is conducted via algorithmic trading, although futures trading is certainly more common.
Also, Ed argues that the deterioration of US-China relations has dealt a blow to tech stocks. It appears the Nasdaq suffered damage because large tech stocks eventually bear the costs associated with worsening US-China relations. Furthermore, Jayce Knife of Capital Advisors argues that the sell-off following the significant rise is actually a result of selling pressure.
The stock market last summer was historically great; August, in particular, was the best month in decades. He claims that the sharp drop overnight was merely a brief moment of rebalancing profit-taking. And finally, LPL Pie mentions Chief Strategist Ryan The main track argues that it is simply a case of everyone running away because someone shouted "Fire!" at some point.
They claim that the drivers causing the stock market weakness are likely not just one or two. The argument is that it appears investors suddenly sold off their stocks after realizing they had been overbuying; it is like saying that in a packed theater, when someone shouts " Fire!", everyone runs away.
Have you heard about this market? What do you think? Isn't it a bit necessary? There is a limit to the energy we can dedicate to something or the energy we can use in a day. That is why I try to avoid small talk as much as possible and tend to just rest fully during breaks. Our brains have a fixed amount of time they can focus each day.
So, where do we spend our daily energy? Relatively speaking, you might focus on market analysis or corporate analysis. Of those, I tend to focus on corporate analysis. It would be nice to get the market right, but I haven't had that kind of confidence very often, and I've been wrong more often than not.
Even just for corporate analysis, there is quite a lot to look at. To check the management's careers and the company's image, and to verify how much commitment they have, besides conference calls, there is another one every other day... I check whether there is any publicly disclosed data on Adgar, and I make sure to keep up with the news regarding the companies in my portfolio every day.
Also, by diligently searching due diligence communities by keyword, I sometimes find comments or websites where consumers using the products of the companies I invested in have left reviews. Recently, I have been interested in micro-mobility companies, so I almost always check reviews and ratings from reviewers to see how people perceive the brands of the products they make.
I also need to look at it from an industrial perspective; I need to hear discussions on whether it is an industry that will grow steadily over the next 10 years. To understand the solar industry, I read Bloomberg NEF data and look at McKinsey Public reports. Regarding the mobility industry, I have bookmarked about five websites and plan to browse through them to read the news.
I look at whether a company's earnings have consistently exceeded estimates or if it is delivering a surprise. I also need to know how much of a technological moat the company possesses compared to its competitors. In this regard, for mobility, I study autonomous driving systems, and regarding battery or raw material supply, lithium...
I look up papers and reports on the subject, and I search extensively for data to systematically understand the difference in technical moat compared to other companies. I check whether sales and operating profits are growing stably and moderately without fluctuating wildly. I try to avoid investing in companies that are incurring losses as much as possible, and I focused my investments on companies with momentum through [previous] trading or those that are already profitable and growing.
Of course, I cannot completely ignore the market. I determine the size of my portfolio based on the bag size that fits [the situation]. As I mentioned yesterday, this is because I know the size of the [resource] cup. Also, while in the stock market, there are times when stocks surge excessively in a short period regardless of [the situation], or when I discover companies with better conditions.
Regarding that, I sometimes adjust my portfolio based on [that]. I have explained my story at length, but even just looking at companies in this way, there is a considerable amount to examine, and I find myself thinking that there might not be enough time to verify everything. Instead of focusing on noise, why not take some time to study the companies again?
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Did you find it okay? If you have conviction in the company in your hearts, I think it is a good method to approach it in installments, thinking of it as a sale period. Whether pursuing more profit or taking risks, I believe that every single one of you has your own thoughts in every direction. I hope you have a good day today.
Starting today, you will be welcoming the weekend; you have worked hard this week. Discarded gratitude, etc.
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