저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 한 줄 결론: 모비우스는 달러 가치하락 때문에 인플레이션과 원자재 상승이 이어질 것으로 보며, 기술 기업과 신흥국 중소형주에 투자 기회가 있다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 관점: CPI는 바스켓이 바뀌어 부정확하며, 미국 M2 통화량이 약 30% 늘어나는 것이 실질 통화가치 하락이라고 주장한다. 실제 인flation은 CPI 5% 수준보다 훨씬 높다고 본다. 원자재 관점: 달러 가치 하락 영향으로 원유 100달러가 충분히 가능하며, 원유·가스·팔라듐·백금·금 등 원자재 전반이 상승할 것으로 본다. 다만 전기차 등 기술이 운송비를 낮춰 상쇄될 수 있다고 언급한다. 반도체 관점: 자동차용 반도체 수요와 기술 효율화를 근거로 반도체 설계·소프트웨어 기업에 투자 중이라고 밝힌다. 반도체 부족 상황을 언급한다. 중국 관점: 규제 리스크가 크지만 대형주(알리바바·텐센트) 하락 후 중형주에 기회가 있다고 본다. 대형주는 회복까지 시간이 걸릴 수 있다고 언급한다. 인도 관점: 인도가 가장 큰 비중(펀드의 20% 이상)이며, 주 간 통합과 신분증 등 기술 변화로 성장이 좋다고 본다. 의료·교육·소프트웨어 중형주를 선호한다. 리스크: 기술을 무시하는 전통 유통·산업 기업은 타격을 받을 것이라고 경고한다.
다듬은 글
hi everyone my name is dan murphy i'm from cnbc international really thrilled to be here today and thank you for the invitation dr movius thank you for being here as well glad to be here i thought we could begin a fan of gold and not just not just a prolific investor and uh an influential voice on the markets but probably one of the best dressed uh investors i've seen in a long time so thank you dr mobius um i think we can begin our conversation just by getting your reaction to some of what you've heard from nouriel there it seems as if nouriel feels like the world is about to come to an end what's your view well i mean i like to tell young people that we're now living in the most glorious period of mankind's history i mean if i go back to the time when i was studying and what the costs of a telephone call from boston to new york was at that time ten twenty dollars for a one or two minute call today i can do it for free so i mean this just an indication of the incredible advances that have been made globally so i always tell young people you're living in the most glorious period of mankind's history it's a wonderful time to be alive and last time you and i were together it was for an asian development bank conference back in september of 2020 and obviously the world has changed really significantly since then so i thought we could get a view from you on how you're seeing the regional economic recovery but also the global economic recovery where do we stand well just look at what's happening here in the uae the incredible advances have been made 20 years ago i was here and it was all desert and now you see this incredible economy being built so the advances that are being made not only in the middle east but in emerging countries generally have been quite remarkable and one of the reasons for that is the internet the digitization of the world has meant that there's more information available to more people than ever before in mankind's history now of course there's a danger of that because crises spread throughout the world more quickly but generally speaking it's been an incredible boon for countries all over the world and globally how do you see the recovery shaping up are you encouraged by what you see so far well you know my view on this whole currency inflation issue was outlined in my book i'm going to give a plug to my book the inflation myth and in that book i argue that first of all the way inflation is measured the cpi the consumer price index is flawed it's just wrong because you're using a basket that changes from year to year so the basket of goods and services that they used for the inflation numbers today are quite different from what they were 10 years ago so you're comparing apples and oranges so if you then take that premise that cpi is inaccurate you should look at money supply money supply in america is going up by about 30 percent recently and if you go back you just have to look at your bloomberg terminal and look at m2 going back 20 years and it goes like this it's a straight line it doesn't go down it continues to go up what does that mean that means your currency is being devalued that is what inflation is not the cpi so you can assume that the the currency is being devalued by at least 30 percent a year at least the good news is that technology is coming in and making goods and services cheaper and i pointed out communications and there's so many other examples of that so you have these two countervailing forces at work and that's the reason why i advise people that when you're looking at investments think of technology i'm not saying you buy semiconductor companies but i'm saying you buy companies that are utilizing technology to increase their efficiency and their ability to produce cheaper and cheaper goods and services so just on the inflation narrative there is a view out there that inflation is going to run hotter than the fed and what the markets expect perhaps inflation is coming to ruin the equity party do you subscribe to that view or not oh yeah no question that the inflation should be much much higher than the numbers indicate and now they're looking at roughly five percent but as i mentioned uh it's not the inflation number you should be looking at but you should look at the devaluation of the currency again as i point out in my book no currency in the world has remained has been able to survive all currencies devalue which is why it's so important in order to preserve wealth you've got to be investing in companies that are adjusting their prices with the devaluation of the currency i wanted to ask you about the oil price outlook as well this is something that mana scenario picked up on so i'll get your reaction too uh this morning we saw brent moving back above 84 us dollars a barrel so significant moves in the oil and gas markets and this has been called a crisis uh in europe which uh policymakers are now being called upon to address do you see 90 usd oil or 100 usd oil on the horizon this would be very very consequential for our region very easily there's no question that they because of the devaluation of the currency and by the way we're not talking about just oil look at all the other commodities they're all up so no question oil gas uh palladium platinum gold you name it all of these come out of this world will be going up in price because of the devaluation of the currency of course the timing of these changes will be different but there's no question this will happen going forward 100 usd oil on the horizon easily easily but don't forget technology is going to make cars more efficient you're moving into electric cars there are many other things that are happening that will result in the cost of transportation to the guy on the street going down in terms of his earning power okay so what does that mean for your overall investment strategy because when you look at the scenario out there uh oil and energy prices are soaring as we've just discussed the dollar has been strengthening the fed is about to uh begin tapering back on asset purchases and all the while you have inflation flee is also lingering in the market so what does that do for your em outlook where does it leave the investment strategy now well that means that you've got to look for companies that are going to benefit from these changes for example semiconductors as you know there's somewhat of a shortage of semiconductors now but we know just take transportation if you look at the demand for semiconductors the largest number of semiconductors goes into automobiles today a lot of people don't realize that what does that mean that means that semiconductors are being used to make automobiles more efficient and more user-friendly and that is eventually lowering the cost of transportation for people i mean i know i whenever i uh i drive with someone here in dubai i put on waze you know the ways the i mean here's an amazing development that makes your driving so much more efficient so this is an example of the changes that make with being made so what i'm telling people is that look at companies that are going to take advantage of these changes so for example in our fund we've invested in the so-called fabulous semiconductor companies that do the design and software for semiconductors that's a field that we believe is going to be growing very rapidly so in order to be exposed to a sector like semiconductors it means you need to also be exposed to the china story and investors have had issue with that this year in particular because what we've seen is very successful examples of capitalism being taken down by the chinese communist party the regulatory risk in china is immense now so what's your view on that and how do you see this regulation narrative playing out moving forward because it's hard to win in china if the government can just come out and say well hang on a second we're going to be taking over this business now uh you know the i think the us has made a big mistake in restricting exports to china because what it meant is the chinese now realize they've got to develop their own semiconductor industry which will compete with the u.s semiconductor industry they will also have to develop their own software industry so i look forward by the way i'm not biased against microsoft but i look forward to the day when the chinese develop an operating system that is cheaper than outlook than microsoft and i think that will happen so in some ways you know the actions that the us has taken is going to come and bite them because it's going to take it's going to mean more competition for us companies the regulatory risk in china you've said before that it's not necessarily a threat for positioning investment positioning it's actually an opportunity can you elaborate on that yeah i mean if you look at corporate governance in china and you look at the actions of many of these companies in china many of these companies have been doing things that they never would have gotten away with in europe and america and now the good news in my view is that the chinese government is beginning to crack down and beginning to look at anti-monopolist practices and generally speaking of improve the governance of these companies going forward the other aspect of this is that by cracking down on the big guys like alibaba and tencent the smaller guys the medium-sized companies will encounter more level playing field which would be good for these companies so i advise people to look at these middle-sized companies because they will be benefiting from these changes so why are we seeing big name investors like kathy wood pulling money out of china now and basically liquidating positions on the ground they're saying the regulatory risk is too much for me now well the problem is is that yes if you look at alibaba tencent and these big guys they are a big part of the index the china whether you look at mci or any of these indices and one feature of investing investing uh these days is that people tend to be indexing more and more and the rise of the exchange traded funds etfs now means that at least half of all investments are indexed so as soon as the chinese index goes down and by the way the emerging markets index goes down because china represents 30 of the index of everybody retreats they say oh god emerging markets are in trouble china is in trouble i'm getting out so the result is you see people pulling money out as a result of that the smart money is going to say hey wait a minute this is an opportunity because china is down 30 40 percent there are going to be opportunities in china because china is not going to go away they're going to continue to welcome investments there are some out there who say china is uninvestable in this environment i think you would disagree with that though because i know uh from recent reading you're still putting money to work in china just elaborate for us a little further on where the opportunities are in a market like china and then once we get through that we'll go into india as well which is where your biggest allocation is but how else are you putting money to work in china oh well as i mentioned i think the great opportunities are in the medium-sized companies medium and smaller size companies by the way when we say smaller some of these multi-billion dollar companies because in the context of the whole china economy and china market the medium-sized companies are actually pretty big but as i mentioned there will be advantages for these companies but don't ignore the big guys because they've come down quite a lot so there will be opportunities there but it may take time for them to recover so i would advise people to go into the middle um india is still the biggest allocation at the moment though so why is india still such a high conviction market uh india is going through an incredible transformation um you know i always think of india as not india but the united states of india because if you look at the individual states in india you realize they're very different from each other now it's true if you in america you go from new york to kentucky you may not understand what the guys in tucker are talking about but in india you have different languages and different states coming to cooperate with each other a good example is the exci tax that has improved uh relations between these states but there are other things happening and again it's technical and technology that's having making this difference for example the id card that now is being issued to all indians this is an incredible boom it's a way now for people to have bank accounts so all of this uh technological change is having a a very big impact on india so i see the growth of india going forward as being very very good um what we'd also like to do is see if the audience maybe has some questions for you as well i think that would be a good way to um sort of get a sense of how people in the room are feeling about some of what what they've heard today so if anyone has a question for dr mobius please come forward and we can get a microphone over to you hi mark it's really a pleasure to see you here i have seen you on the indian business channels quite a few times and my question to you is what is your view on the indian market from these levels the markets have gone up quite a bit since the pandemic broke out so i would like to know your views about the indian market and the emerging markets in general we were in the indian market well if you look at our portfolio of our fund you'll see that a little bit over 20 percent is in india it's the largest allocation we have so that gives you an indication of where we stand uh but we're not buying the uh the big blue chips in india we're buying the medium-sized companies and particularly we're focused on medical care and by the way that's one area where we're focusing not only in india but in china and other parts of the world because we believe that generally speaking a rising incomes and aging populations particularly in a place like china is going to be a big boon for medical care and we particularly are focusing on medical testing the other area is education we think that the demand for education for private schools is going to be increasing and therefore we have investments in brazil egypt china and other parts of the world in the education sector and then of course technology software india as you know is an incredible developer of software export of export of software and we want to do more and more in that area thank you for your question hello hello hello sir my name is armand nice to meet you also all these years i read on wikipedia what you did congratulations i'm not nobody but anyway congratulations on what you did we also invest in emerging markets um i had a question related to inflation stagflation and the investments that could be done so apart from commodities and apart from let's say mainstream public equities do you see certain specific sectors or certain specific areas or even certain specific companies that you think are undervalued or that could have a potential of growth and a kind of comparative advantage in case there's a very high inflation i don't know if my sentence is clear yeah i mean i can see your point there are of course a number of companies sectors who where the leaders of these companies and these sectors have ignored the technology in other words for example in the retail area many companies have not fully grasped the impact of technology on their business uh home delivery uh shopping online that sort of thing and those are the places where they're going to be in trouble but it's not only in the retail area the many other sectors where technology has not been fully utilized and they will be overtaken as a result of having ignored the impact of technology on their businesses and by the way that could mean anything it could be mining it could be medicine it could be any sector because the the impact of technology the advances that are being made in technology having an incredible impact globally and you can't ignore it
Comments 0