저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 금이 2001~2020 대상승 후 횡보하며 다음 상승장의 기반을 다지는 중이라고 주장한다. 시장은 연준 금리인상을 금의 악재로 오해하지만 실질금리가 음수인 한 금에 우호적이며, 인플레이션은 2%가 아니라 10% 이상으로 갈 가능성이 크다. 연준은 결국 양적완화로 선회해야 하고 달러 지수(115→105)는 하락 중이다. 기관이 금광주를 던진 반면 스마트머니는 매수했다고 본다. 비트코인은 투기 수요였지만 금 기반 디지털 토큰이 화폐로 쓰일 것이라 주장한다.
다듬은 글
when people look at the last 10 11 years in gold and they see sideways action and then they conclude that well gold is no longer an inflation hedge it's no longer relevant because it's not going anywhere you have to look at the last 20 years you can't just look at the last 10 you got to go back 2001 and see that gold was under $300 an ounce in 2001 and it went from under 300 to almost 2,000 in 10 years that is a big move for the price of gold now following that move gold did have a significant correction between 2011 and 2015 it corrected down to 1,50 but it never got back below a th000 and of course it never went anywhere near uh the level below 300 where it began the bull market so gold had a correction and then it rallied up and made a new high by 2020 after covid and it's pulled back a little bit from that high but it is really consolidating the big move up from 300 to 1900 been trading sideways it is building a new base from which the next bull market is going to be launched and what is delaying liftoff of this gold rocket ship is a misconception on the part of investors around the world as to the real situation with inflation in the United States and the fed's ability to put the genie back in the bottle because for years the officials at the Federal Reserve were telling us that the problem was we didn't have enough inflation every time there's some type of evidence that the inflation problem isn't going away or is getting worse the markets sell gold and they buy dollars why because they're afraid not of inflation but of the fed's fight to re in inflation and everybody just believes well if we're going to have this fed that's going to get rid of inflation a I don't need to buy gold I don't need to hedge inflation because the fed's going to get rid of it for me and while they're fighting inflation they're going to jack up interest rates and higher interest rates well that's bad for gold and so the price of gold has gone down but none of this is true because Rising nominal rates don't make a difference to Gold what matters to Gold are real interest rates and as long as they're negative that's positive for gold and what the markets don't understand is that inflation's not going back down to 2% it's more likely to go above 10% because what the FED is going to bring down with its rate hikes is not inflation but the economy because this whole bubble economy has been erected on a foundation of inflation the whole recovery from the 2008 financial crisis was built on inflation and now that the FED is trying to remove some of that inflation you're taking away the foundation everything come collapsing down stocks are collapsing companies are going bankrupt that never should have existed all the debt that never should have been taken out that was nonproductive and is now no longer serviceable at a higher rate of interest the FED is in the process of creating a much worse financial crisis than the one that it created in 2008 and so I think when investors start to appreciate the box that the FED is in that it's actually going to have to Pivot not in Victory with inflation but in defeat the FED is going to have to turn its attention to stimulating the economy and the only tool it has to do that is inflation every problem that the FED has tried to solve it's done it with inflation that's why this inflation problem is impossible to solve because when your only tool is inflation how do you solve the problem of inflation with inflation you can't this is a problem that the FED can't balance out from and when the markets wake up to this when the FED has to go back to quantitative easing even though inflation is nowhere near 2% then I think the bottom is going to drop out of the US dollar and I think Gold's going to go through the roof in fact we've already started to see this correction the US dollar Index which was bit up to almost 115 a couple of months ago is now down to 105 that's a significant decline the chart looks very toppy for the dollar at the same time gold has rallied I think you had a major compulation in this correction in Gold I think a lot of the institutional money uh gave up they they kic they threw out all their gold stocks a couple months ago you had new 52 glows and a lot of the big gold mining stocks Newmont Barra and to me that was an exitus uh from the sector worst trade you could have possibly done the smart money was buying up these gold stocks they could read the writing on the wall and as the inflation rates move higher and there's no way these central banks are going to stop that because of the massive amounts of debt that they have nobody wants to raise taxes on the middle class nobody wants to cut spending and and and cut Social Security or Medicare so the government is going to continue to pay the bills by creating inflation and so anybody who has dollars is going to see a significant inflation tax eroding away their value and the same may be true for people around the world so they're going to be looking for Alternatives uh to government money just like people looked for alternatives to taxi cabs and they went to Uber or they looked for alternatives to a hotel and they went to Airbnb or they to looked for alternatives to the post office and they started using FedEx they're going to go back to gold as money but they're not going to be carrying around their gold their gold is going to be stored with a reputable third party and that third party will issue a digital token like a Bitcoin that represents ownership of that gold the original paper currencies that circulated in the United States were issued by private Banks the Federal Reserve wasn't created till 1913 we had paper money before 1913 but it was all issued by private Banks and it was all backed by gold and what gave the paper currency value was the gold in a vault backing it up well today you can issue currency back by gold but you don't have to do it on paper you can use blockchain and issue it digitally you could take a token that represents ownership of gold that's stored that can be transacted and used as a med of exchange and a unit of account much faster and much quicker than you could use Bitcoin so if I want to make a transaction over the internet and let's say I want to buy something from somebody in Australia and I want to pay them I can instantly send him gold I don't have to send him the physical gold that gold sits in a vault what I send him is my ownership certificate digitally of that gold and so the ownership of the gold transfers from me to the person in Australia but the gold continues to sit in the vault maybe it's a Brinks vault in Switzerland something like that but the ownership changes people are going to look for Alternatives and the free market will supply it initially the free market supplied Bitcoin because people weren't really looking for a store of value or for an alternative medium exchange the demand for Bitcoin was from speculators who wanted to get rich that's why people bought Bitcoin so they can you know get a Lambo you know they pointed to all the people that got in and made a fortune and hey you can too there was no real demand to use Bitcoin as money I mean nobody used it as money but there's going to be a demand to use gold as money people aren't going Tove move to Gold to get rich they're going to move to Gold to stay rich or just preserve what they have and as inflation starts to really accelerate at a higher level I think more and more Merchants are going to want to move to a gold standard they're going to want to get paid for their goods and services in real money in gold and with blockchain that's all possible that's all easy because you can break up an ounce of gold into tiny fractur so you don't even need copper anymore or nickel anymore or even silver you can do all your transactions in one metal in gold and you can do it quicker and cheaper than you can actually even in Fiat currencies it's easier than a bank wire it's cheaper than using a credit card to make payments
Comments 0