저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 일부 성장주는 버블 조짐이 있으나 시장 전반은 아님. 일본·중국 시장은 고점 대비 30~40% 하락해 매력적이지만 러시아·중국 등 상대적으로 저평가된 시장을 선호. 2008년 이후 전 세계 부채가 급증해 다음 약세장은 평생 최악이 될 것으로 전망. 원자재는 역사상 가장 싼 자산군이며 설탕은 80%, 은은 50% 하락, 원유는 바닥 형성 중이라 본인은 원자재를 계속 매수 중. 금은 고점 부근이라 추가 매수는 자제하고 은을 더 살 예정. 금·은은 향후 2~3년 내 큰 혼란 시 다시 피난처로 수요가 몰릴 것으로 봄. 애플 등 모두가 보유한 종목은 선호하지 않음.
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but D many stocks in the US are down there are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day I mean some parts of the US market are developing a market beginning of a bubble uh but many parts of the market are not that's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while Japanese Market's down 30% from its all-time high and the bank of Japan buys ETFs it prints huge amounts of money and buys ETFs every day David he has more money than I do if he's going to buy ETF so am I and the Market's down likewise in China the Chinese market is down 30 or 40% from its all-time high you know they've done a less bad job of dealing with all of this so China Japan Russia Russia's hated uh there are markets that are still down and I would prefer to buy those but you know they're also I mean Commodities Commodities may be the cheapest that class around right now we've had better markets periodically for of hundreds of years we will have them again in 2008 we had a bare Market because of too much debt well David since 2008 debt everywhere in the world has skyrocketed staggering amounts so what I said was the next time we have a bare market and I don't know when it's going to be watch Kitco news they'll tell you when it's coming but when it comes it's going to be the worst in my lifetime has to be because the debt is so so I mean maybe I'm wrong and if I'm wrong you tell tell me why but the debt is so much much much higher all over the world now than in 2008 well when markets start going down when bare markets start for whatever reason people are very skeptical of companies that have a lot of debt because as fear as exuberance gives way to fear people start worrying about will they survive or can they survive or their earnings must go down because they have so much and some companies start going bankrupt the really bad ones and that and it spreads I mean this is just a simple bare Market there I'm not making any of this up it's happened hundreds of times in bare markets all over the world uh throughout history and that's the way they work as I look around the world bonds are a bubble many stocks are making all-time highs property in many countries is certainly in a bub them the cheapest asset class I know Commodities now I mean Sugar's down 80% Silver's down 50% from its all-time high these are the kind this is not a bubble as I look at asset classes at the moment Commodities seem to be the cheapest I'm buying more Commodities as we speak you've launched an ETF uh the Rogers Commodity Index Fund back in the 90s what were the components of this index and how did you decide the percentage of allocation of components when you launch this ETF well I was about to go around the world but I and I realized the commodity bow Market was about to start I wanted to invest in an index because I was going to be traveling I looked at all the indices none of them were I wouldn't invest in any of them they were all hopeless so I came up with my own there were over over 35 uh components and it was basically because I wanted to be a worldwide index many of the indexes were pretty narrow that existed and they were main the US Cent I wanted something that would inter give International the cost of doing business the cost of staying alive so the over 35 components and the and the weightings were essentially based on you I mean oil was much heavier than sugar because we all Ed a lot more oil and we use sugar sure in our lives oil is in the process of making a complicated bottom um you know bottoms go up and down up and down and go sideways for a while and then eventually they turn around and go up we're beginning to see bottoms developing in energy because it takes a while and because of the demand which is down a lot but we're making a bottom I I have no idea of when it ends 2021 22 23 but then it'll turn around and start going up again what about uh let's talk about gold and silver now um gold is a commodity which has been around for centuries and will continue to be around for centuries whether we like it or not I'm an old peasant and us old peasants know when things go wrong we better have some gold we better have some silver in our closet or under our bed because it's what is the thing which will get us through when governments are currencies start having problems well gold is near its alltime high so gold is near its alltime high I don't know what what else I can tell you um it's not making loads I'm not buying gold lots of people are being forced to sell their gold to buy food right now especially in India which is the largest gold country in the world but I will be buying more gold and I'll be buying more silver later I'll buy more silver than gold because silver is much cheaper on a on a historic basis analysts have spoken to have said that even though it's reached all-time highs this is just the beginning of a larger bull run into uh into potentially even newer highs can you can you see that happening yes no I expect suspect they're right this time because there's going to be great turmoil certainly in the next two or three years in the World Market we talked before about gigantic amounts of debt we talked about how a bubble is starting to develop in some stock markets bubble's always in when that ends and when all this debt comes crashing in on all of us many people are going to turn to gold and silver again how is it possible that we have stimulus on such a large scale today it it would this have been possible back in the 80s or 70s no of course not William the machez Martin in the 60s wouldn't are you kidding me no no those he was the guy who came up and said well my job is to take the punch bowl away when people start having fun when they're not having fun I give them all the punch they want and when they start having too much fun I take the punch bow home you know vulker was another guy like that but since then in the last 30 years India had a good Central Banker for a while but I cannot think of any decent Central Banker in the past 20 or 30 years other than them now Central Bankers are essentially bureaucrats and politicians who really don't have a clue they their job is to keep their job and the way they keep their job is to keep people happy and that means print money and spend money and borrow money do you do you like the technology sector do I I like it well I mean I'm not going to bother was saying you kidding I mean Apple no I'm not just the first one to know about Apple you know apparently every uh every you've invested in in in the US right now is buying Apple yeah in China they're buying 10 cent they're buying all of these stocks the new investors it's not for me I mean it may double again but not for me I prefer to buy things that are cheap and hated so something that's not being looked at so Apple for example is everybody body everybody analyzes that stock there there's as an investor it's difficult to find uh value in in something that's looked at by everybody is what you're saying not only just looked at owned by everybody owned by everybody yeah you know and many who own it don't even know what it is but it doesn't matter they're making money so they're happy but that's not for me I mean I'd rather I bought a Russian Shipping Company recently oh my God you talk about hated it's hated Russia's hated that company's hated there are opportunity is where things are hated and nobody knows about yet
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