저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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Gundlach는 이번 연준 회의와 파월 기자회견이 시장 심리를 안정시켰다고 평가하며, 지금 신용·위험자산의 밸류에이션이 6~12개월 관점에서 좋은 수익을 낼 수 있는 출발점이라고 봤다. 연준 발언 평가: 파월은 인플레이션을 반드시 잡겠다는 매파적 메시지로 시작했지만, 질의응답을 거치며 점점 비둘기파적으로 바뀌어 시장을 안심시켰다. 특히 선제 가이던스를 주지 않고 '회의별(meeting by meeting)' 접근을 강조한 점을 높이 평가했다. 과거 가이던스가 연준 신뢰를 훼손했다는 이유에서다. 시장 반응: 6월 하이일드 채권과 신흥국 시장은 매우 나빴지만 이후 회사채와 하이일드가 강하게 반등했고, 기자회견 이후 추가 상승했다. 이번 반응은 과거 6월·5월 때의 일시적 '설탕 효과'보다 지속성이 있다고 봤다. 금리 경로: 연준은 75bp를 연속 인상해 비교적 공격적이지만 아직 '페인트 사다리' 위에 있으며 진전은 있다고 평가. 금리 인상의 시차 효과를 고려해 8주 뒤 다음 회의 전 두 번의 데이터를 기다려야 한다고 봤다. 중립금리는 2.5% 수준이며, 장단기 금리차 기준으로 연준이 더 이상 곡선 뒤에 있지 않다고 판단했다. 통화 공급 리스크: 과거 대규모 통화 공급이 인플레이션과 시장 왜곡의 원인이었다고 지적했다. 향후 경기침체 시 다시 돈을 찍을 가능성이 크고, 지금 과도한 긴축으로 심각한 침체를 부르는 것을 연준이 피해야 한다고 주장했다. 출연자 전망: 리스크 자산(일부 신용·주식)에 대해 중장기적으로 긍정적이나, 단기 변동성과 데이터 의존성은 남아 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
thanks scott it's nice to be here again another busy day busy week for the markets you got that right what's your reaction here to what the fed did and what powell said powell's getting pretty good at uh scripting it's not really a script but conducting these press conferences after the meetings he starts out and this is like the third time in a row but i i'm not i'm often critical of fed officials i think jay had one of his best press conferences today he started out with with a stick basically it's essentially bring inflation down we need to bring inflation down we must bring inflation down and then he starts to get more dovish as he goes along and he starts to say things that are reassuring to the markets and he ends up talking the markets up and frankly changing the sentiment i feel like not only did stocks do well during and after the press conference but we saw some relax in the bond market as well we've been having a lot of volatility in the credit markets june was a terrible month for the high yield bond market and the emerging markets and then we've had a pretty strong rebound in particularly corporate bonds and uh the high yield bond market and they really got a second wind uh after the press conference today i i think that we have a interesting situation now where markets are priced cheaply enough thanks to all of what's happened in the past few months we're at a starting point for certain parts the credit market and i'd certainly say for some of the riskier parts of the stock market where you're from a starting point where the valuation is uh such that the uh possibility of good returns i'm not talking about in a month but good returns over a six to 12 month horizon have significantly improved and i think one of the things that was really important was that we didn't get this this forward guidance stuff so much as in the past there was a guest prior to uh paul's uh uh the minutes being released and the interest rate hike there were people saying that they were hoping that we would get more guidance and i wrote down in my notes no just the opposite because this guidance is what cost the cred the fed credibility in the past kind of kind of promising certain things and promising that certain things wouldn't happen and then events changed and they had to make them happen and that didn't happen this time in fact they even said meeting by meeting which i don't think that's a phrase i've heard in a long time and i like that meeting by meeting that's what i want i don't want the fed to make silly things that are based on backward-looking data make a commitment to something and then and then have all uh expectations have to be reset so i thought i thought that was pretty good so uh all in all i actually think this market reaction seems less of a sugar high than the prior to uh in uh june and may it's interesting i was talking about uh judge a little bit facetiously a couple of months ago they should just just raise 200 and get it over without you said paint or get off the ladder uh take fed funds rate to three percent now is what you told me the last time you were on now they've done 75 back to back that's pretty aggressive that's right well they're they're painting i mean they're still on the ladder but they're actually making progress on the job and so i think that's a good thing so what's important now is actually the fed has to understand and and jay said this pretty clearly that these things have a lagged effect and so now that we've in under three months moved 200 basis points we need to wait and see to a certain extent i'm glad there's eight weeks before the next meeting because we'll get two full data sets by then and that'll give us a lot more clarity one thing that i think people don't talk about and i didn't hear anything about it anywhere today and didn't come out of jay is how much the money printing was responsible for all these dislocations and for the inflation rate and unfortunately i believe if when the an economic downturn comes that's of significance and this is what the fed wants to avoid a downturn of significance because i think they understand that we're probably going to print more money again and so ironically if you want to have less inflation long term you want to really avoid weirdly overdoing it now and causing that more steep recession so i heard jay powell say a couple of things fairly concisely and i applaud him for that first of all he acknowledged that two and a half is the neutral rate basically and he acknowledged that the bond market path that he has now followed and i've been critical in past meetings particularly before they started liftoff that they need to follow the two-year well since the last meeting now they've gone 150 in six weeks the two-year treasury yield is down 50 basis points and the fed funds rate is up 150 basis points so there's a 200 basis point swing there so the fed is no longer behind the curve and i think they have to understand that and i think they do i think that's what came away and why the markets are probably more sustainably calmed down by this i understand that go ahead i was gonna say i'm almost done to hear you say what you're saying
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