저자: ChrisJohnson · 외국인
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팔란티어가 최근 30% 이상 하락한 가운데, 분할매수 가격대(90달러, 75달러, 70달러, 50달러)를 제시하며 매수 기회로 봄. 국방부 예산 8% 삭감 및 알렉스 카프 대규모 매도 뉴스는 과도한 반응이며, 정부 계약 비중 60%·애널리스트 매수 의견 21% 등을 근거로 장기 상승을 낙관. 1년 내 상승 가능성을 강조하고 2027년 1월 85 콜옵션 활용도 언급.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Chris Johnson with Monday morning paler is trading more than 30% lower over the last week following a couple of news reports that we're going to talk about for a minute but more importantly where do you buy the dip I've got three different buy the dip trigger prices I'm going to go through the chart and explain each one of those trigger prices as well as a little bit of an outlook on the stock and yes this is still one of the undervalued stocks out there in the AI service world so we're going to take 5 or 10 minutes let's look at all of this information you'll be a wiser investor for it let's jump into it right now all right everyone like I said give me about five or 10 minutes and we're going to go through a lot of information on paler at the end of the video you're going to have actionable prices that you want to look at in terms of buying the dip and a strategy I'm even going to throw in a little bit of a bonus one of those strategies that I use to leverage a stock like palente teer just did on the last run and had great success with it I'll just throw that out for you we'll get a little bit of education on that as well at some point but let's talk about what's been going on this with the stock paler has kind of had a jackinh high moment here over the last three or four months if you recall looking over the last three months back in November and December paler was taken off let's not go through the bullet points let's go through what matters and that's the chart right in here we saw a little bit of a run up in the stock and that was because the company came out with another one of their beat and raise quarters and what I mean by that is the company comes out and beats earnings expectations and they raise their Outlook now keep in mind paler right now is not in favor with Wall Street Wall Street does not have buy recommendations they've got low price Targets on the stock so the expectations are low when Palante tier comes out with a meat and raise that means that the company is going to start rallying wildly because retail investors are piling into the stock that's exactly what happened after that November 4th earnings report stock took off and traded up into that top that we saw in December now you got a little bit of an extra push in those paler shares because company was joined into the NASDAQ 100 so had been trading in the S&P 500 and was one of the larger companies there but in December the company switched over to the NASDAQ exchange it made it available to trade in the n NASDAQ 100 that is the large Cap Technology ETF and index your companies like Microsoft Amazon Google Tesla the Magnificent are at the top of that list well guess what you've got paler that is now in that list and they're one of the major market capitalization contributors to it so that's why we got that little run up into the end of December December 23rd and 24th they were added to the NASDAQ 100 now think about this for a minute that's great news and investors knew it was coming up probably about two weeks ahead of that maybe three weeks ahead of that so they were buying the stock we saw a buy the rumor Drive the stock higher into that December top and that's when you get that little roll over in the shares once they get added into the NASDAQ 100 you buy the rumor you sell the news and that's exactly what investors did you saw 20% pullback in the stock we touched down on that 50-day moving average you're going to hear me talk about that quite a bit for the next couple of minutes but that 50-day moving average if you're unaware of it it's this simple the 50-day moving average is the best trend line that represents the trend is your friend that simple saying that we say out on Wall Street retail investors say the trend is your friend well that 50-day moving average is the one thing it's a way to quantify whether the trend is a stocks friend and man has it been friendly for paler it's one of the most widely watched trend lines out there so when we see a stock pull back to it you're typically going to see support technical support from that stock and we got that exactly that he traded one or two days below it but you can see the consolidation here and then it was off to the races again we had paler that charged into year end and then in February we got another one of those beat and raise quarters from Alex karp this one was a little different because if you noticed Alex karp has been out there talking to CNBC out with the media saying the analysts are on the wrong side of this a lot of investors didn't expect that he'd come out with such a great earnings report but that's exactly what they did and you got another 50% Rally from right here before that report up into that top now what happened just last week well we had the stock trading around $120 this was also in a way way way overbought technically overbought situation so what we usually say is that's rarified air it's in a different strata however you'd like to put it but basically the buying power has been exhausted at that point so paler shares were getting a little bit tired and then all it took was a little bit of a trigger to come through and guess what that trigger was well twofold here it was Department of Justice coming out and saying hey we are going to be cutting not increasing but cutting our budget here over the next couple of uh years and what they mean by that is it is going to be a 8% cut over the next five years each of those five years and this is under the bad right now I'll go back to that chart in a second but we heard Pete hegseth say we're going to be refocusing 8% of existing defense funds to other areas in president Trump's agenda so we're moving 8% out of the Department of Defense they are targeting fraud and waste and I think that's very important because now's how you apply this to palente teer investors when they saw that news instantly said paler is going to lose a bunch of contracts with the Department of Defense think about it 3.3 billion right now in revenue for paler on an annual basis that's growing at between 30 and 50% on a quarterly basis because the company is now bringing in not only those defense contracts but also retail contracts where he he's getting them from private service service industry right AI services are going out and helping other companies but 60% of their business comes from the government right now and the government has been very vocal about how well paler is operating within those government contracts specifically the Department of Defense and also with the intelligence agencies paler is efficient and you've got the Department of Defense saying we are looking to get rid of Fraud and waste so investors kind of blew over this and said this is it they're going to cut some of those contracts palun teers going to lose it the fact of the matter is when you look at where the stock was trading at that time in that rarified air that I'd mentioned all you needed was a little bit of something to go wrong and investors use this as an excuse to sell the stock well within 24 hours you had another report that came out and that was that Alex karp was planning on selling more than a billion dollars worth of the stock NOW folks I'm going to turn this screen off for a second and and just talk to you you and me for a sec we don't need the screen I'm going to tell you I don't care whether it's Alex karp I don't care whether it's uh Bill Gates doesn't matter Elon Musk whoever it is the CEO that has been taking compensation from the company in the form of shares at some point needs to do something as simple as diversify something that you and I do to our portfolios whenever I have my position in paler and this happened get up to be about 60 to 70% of my portfolio and it started as 10 it was just that rapid growth of the stock that bolstered my portfolio and got it to the point where it was 70% any responsible investor is going to say hey I need to diversify away from this I'm going to take profits and then reallocate them somewhere else why can't Alex karp do the same thing it's exactly what he announced less than 10% of an ownership of the company when you look at the amount that he's selling this is a non event now I'll put it to you when you're looking at insiders and they're buying and selling don't ignore The Insider selling don't ignore it completely but it can be rationalized when insiders are buying the stock that is a much more powerful signal for the underlying company use that as a rule you just learned something a little bit new and as we look at some of the politicians that are buying and selling shares that's where you start to look at something that's a little differently if they're selling that stock then in those cases you want to look because maybe they do know something but Alex car selling a billion shares as big as that number is it is a benign Factor over the next 6 to 12 months that's what the shares are going to be sold over that period it is not going to be the thing that brings the stock down so all of this adds up to the Department of Defense and Alex karp kind of these I won't call them completely uh you know frivolous or non stories but there certainly were overreacted to by investors this creates a healthy opportunity to buy the dip a healthy correction in the stock and any time that we've seen that in Palante here it is a situation where the stock finds itself up six months higher a year higher I've got an example here right now but if you look at it August 5th 2024 we saw shares decline 27% down to the 21 dollar level I'll pull that up right here there it is from here to here look at that resting right on the 200 day moving average so some technical support and a 20% pullback and if you bought that dip you're up more than 315 per year to date from that so an example of how few times paler has given us to buy a 20% or better dip uh over the last year and the benefit that you got from going in and taking that opportunity and running now let me tell you real quickly about buying the dip and there a lot of people will say well I'm pulls back five or $10 do I don't care what the stock is I'm going to buy that dip be tactical about it and the prices I'm going to show you right now are much more tactical there's a reason that the stock should be bouncing at those dips we're at one right now so be tactical don't just pick random numbers and then stick to them if if you say you're going to buy 100 shares at XYZ price buy those 100 shares but have a plan if the stock goes down another 20% you want to add to it it's called dollar cost averaging it's one of those ways that investors can lower their average price so when the stock recovers you're actually making more than if you just purchase the stock once keep that in mind it's an easy and effective way to increase your return so let's look at the three prices right now that I am watching watching and I am I will say I am still a holder a paler I hold both the stocks and I have long-term options leaps they're called that expire in January of 2027 so I have a a little bit of an alternative investment that allows me to leverage some of this move I'll give you a strike in a contract you can look at right at the end today to consider the same type of approach but here are those prices that I am right now actively buying myself and I identifying for our readers as buy the dip prices your first trigger is right here at the $90 level shares of paler are trading at this level it is a round number when you look at a stock like paler it's going to trade with psychologically round numbers so $9 $80 $70 $60 $100 we didn't really see a lot of support you can see that there was just a little bit of a pause on the way down here but right now at that $90 you get the benefit of that round number and and remember the trend is your friend right there's your 50-day moving average folks people will be buying the algorithms will be buying on that 50-day moving average so let's say hey CJ what if it breaks through that Nvidia comes out tonight and misses on their earnings and the rest of the market comes down yep Palante teer is going to come down as well they'll break through that level and breaking through that will increase selling pressure and now you're going to see the stock pull down somewhere around a $70 price notice that we had a $70 bottom right there in January of 2025 after we had that rollover uh from the addition of the NASDAQ 100 so your sell the news took you down to that $70 and in technical analysis they like to look at the prices that have seen support in times past and that $70 has done a little bit of that right there $70 is your next by the dip price 75 you could also use as well but really look at that 7 is the round number and from there this one's a doozy folks but remember you want to buy these if they go on deep discounts some of these stocks will especially more volatile we drop down to a $50 that's where that 200 day moving average is and if you were listening earlier when I told talked about that August pullback here it is right here 27% from there to there look at what came to save paler the 200 day moving average that would be another 50% pullback from where we are today sitting at 90 going down to $50 a little bit more than that really so consider that and that it again gives you a round number to look at $50 and you get the benefit of that 200 day moving average if paler were to fall back down to that level I indeed would be a buyer of another round adding equal amounts each and every single time to bring my dollar cost average on this down now I mention to you that I would also show you a little bit of another strategy and it's at the the basis here looking forward on palente here real quickly why would we want to be buying the dips well this is still a contrarian bullish trade what I mean by that is the fundamentals are strong the technicals at 50 and 200 day are strong and there's a lot of pessimism towards this stock we've got analysts that just do not want to upgrade their view on the stock and that is always bullish for a stock whenever we see apple Microsoft where the analysts are just hanging out and don't want to upgrade eventually they have to keep up or get back in line with the rest of the uh Market it's going to happen with paler right now you've only got 21% of the analysts recommending it as a buy when you look at companies like Nvidia it's 88% so you can see the off balance there palen tieras it becomes more in favor with Wall Street and those Wall Street analysts understand that the growth potential for the company over the next 5 years is there you're going to see those upgrades go up and that means that you're going to have a stock that's going to be driven by institutions at that point so on positioning using that 50-day moving average priced at 85 that's that first one buy the dip at $75 is a second 70 is my my real Target there and my worst case on Palante tier is that the stock drops down to its $50 level which is the day moving average that would be my third by the dip Target consider using a option strategy long-term leaps if you want to try to leverage or put less money into these don't trade less at some point if you if you have a certain percent that you want to put into a uh position in your portfolio you could still consider using a leap just figure out how many leaps you would have to buy to make up that amount in this case I've been looking at the January 2027 the 85 calls they're currently trading at 3560 if this goes up to $120 again you're going to have a situation where this is going to be a $35 in the money option uh and if it happened within the next six to seven months or so that option is going to be worth somewhere around 80 to 90% what you bought at PL as a return here whereas the Stock's going to be up 40% or so so a great way to leverage that move back up to those highs that does it I can't make by the dip any more simple for you when we look at paler will paler move higher over the next year absolutely again I'm saying that these defense contracts they're going to be a fraction a fraction of what people expect when it comes down to what paler may they may not even see any cuts to their contracts at all because we've already heard the Department of Defense talk about how efficient they are with the work that they're doing the Department of Defense and again Alex carp sales over the next 6 months simple diversification you should be doing the same thing if you have a position that is 80 90% of your net worth hats off Alex carp for doing a little bit of portfolio management until the next time I'm Chris Johnson with money morning make sure you check out our five stock report we send it to you every Monday we've got a growth stock a tech stock an income stock a stock under $10 and then also a stock to short that week it comes out every Monday you'll get it in your email box free of charge click on the link below or you can scan the QR code that you've seen here a couple of times during the video feel free to comment down uh below like and add the uh the video as well and come back and see us we love talking stocks with you have a great day and I wish you the best trading success
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