저자: ChrisJohnson · 외국인
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Palantir(PLTR)는 올해 150% 상승했지만 월가 애널리스트 대다수가 매도·보유 의견으로 기대가 낮음. 11월 7일 실적 발표가 상향 조정 촉매가 될 것이며, 실적이 기대를 상회하면 애널리스트 상향과 목표가 상승이 이어질 것이라 주장. 단기 조정 후 40달러·37.5달러 부근 매수를 제시하고, 6개월 목표 60달러, 12개월 80~90달러 제시. 화자는 PLTR 주식과 LEAPS를 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Chris Johnson with money morning Wall Street analysts have fallen asleep at the wheel when it comes to Palante tier the stock is up more than 150% but an alarm clock's about to go off on November 7th it's going to wake them all up and it's the next big Catalyst for the stock I'm going to show you all the charts talk about what's going on with the Wall Street analyst and how that is ready to drive the stock up another 100 150% or so over the next 6 to 12 months stick with me for 5 or 10 minutes you're going to learn a lot you'll be a better investor after afterwards let's jump into it all right so let's jump into it paler is up 150% year-to date it's one of the strongest AI service companies out there and when I say AI service companies I'm talking about companies who are now using the AI technology to monetize it for other companies IBM is another big name out there Palante teer is probably going to be one of the biggest ones out there before you know it so it's up 150% does that make it special sure but what makes it even more special is that the stock is ready to go another 100 maybe 150% and it's all because of the Wall Street analyst and what they haven't done yet let me explain real quickly when I look for a long-term trade a strong bullish long-term trade three things I want to see I want to see strong technicals I want to see strong fundamentals and I want to see negative sentiment or pessimism you've heard the term probably stocks climb a wall of worry well that's what I'm looking for I'm looking for stocks that are climbing a wall of worry let me pull up this chart real quickly you've probably seen this if you if you've been following my YouTube videos this is all about the psychology of a rally or a bare market right let's focus on the good right here despair that's when everybody throws in the towel that's the best time to buy a stock that happened for paler back in 2023 long-term charts you had a stock that was deep deep deep in a bare market and the company showed you a little bit of Hope but nobody was listening nobody wanted to hear despair right dis belief is the next stage that's where we are right now with Palante tier analysts don't believe investors don't believe and we just had an analyst that downgraded the stock two weeks ago and it's up 150% for the year the fundamentals though are very strong that's the remember I said strong fundamentals strong technicals bare sentiment we're still right here the next stage acceptance is one of the strongest of a bull market Trend and that's what you're about to see with Palante here so you got to know the history here before you can understand where the Stock's going here's your chart of paler there's your 50-day moving average nice strong in a bullish pattern and your 20-day the Stock's up 50% let's look at the monthly because it is where the Story begins way back here in 2201 so the company was new to the scene and they had this new let's call it technology that was going to be the application of AI they're a big data company right they go out and analyze big data using AI so expectations were huge because you had Nvidia and other companies that were building that AI technology and if it had AI in the name you probably remember this a couple years ago had AI in the name or the company did AI business everybody was all in until the company didn't show results and that was the problem with Palante teer going back to the first let's go back to that first chart here's what happened right out of the gate pal Ander was loved by Wall Street 82% of the Wall Street analysts had a buy recommendation on the stock in the first 6 months of its actual IPO right after its IPO that's disastrous because it says expectations are way up here you better impress us and it's hard for a new company to do that and that's exactly what happened Palante tier came out and their revenue at first because they were dealing with very small numbers was good but then it started to slide immediately and the analyst said forget about it we're out think about it you're trying to scale that Revenue number up at the same time that you're growing it it's very hard to do unless you're hitting on all cylinders so Wall Street abandoned the stock during 2001 2002 they took all their buy recommendation and moved them all to holds and sells even worse so that's still where they are today they still have this memory of these charts in their brain when they see palente tier here is what happened though last year 2023 you started to see a company that turned around in terms of beating the expectations and when I say expectations I want to make sure that I make a point here so I will put the screen on me for just a sec expectations are what drives the market period you can say fundamentals earnings and revenue all those things yeah they do lead to what drives Market but expectations whether you and I think a stock is going to go higher in the rest of the market that is what truly generates buying interest in a stock that's what drives it higher you can have great fundamentals out there and a stock can go sideways look at what nvidia's done for the last couple of months after their earnings report right expectations were way too high for NVIDIA and they can't beat them now and that's what got them to where they were right now with pal Ander those expectations are very low which makes it even a better trade so they don't have to come in and blow wall Street's hair back all they have to do is come in and beat by a penny which is what they've been doing but things are getting better for paler when we go back to that screen July of 2023 we started to see that rate the slope of that Revenue surprise really start to take off and the company is now hitting on all cylinders they're bringing in those contracts with health care with government with and if you're in the AI service industry and you're analyzing data those are the two biggest companies or biggest sectors that you can work with obviously so they're doing the right things to grow that business right now which is why paler is moving higher in terms of the fundamentals it's just that this hasn't caught up these are the Wall Street analyst recommendations for the stock 37% have it ranked as a sell you've got another 37% of them that have it as a hold and just 26% that are ranking it right now as a buy despite the fact that it is blowing the doors off of performance of other AI companies and when we look at the revenue if I were to go back to that Revenue growth chart we can look at it right now now you've got growth of about 27% for Palante tier last quarter and that number is now trending up when you look at Microsoft last quarter it was 15% Nvidia was 122% so it was impressive it was down from 262 the quarter before meta 22% and it's been going down 10% for Amazon 2% for Tesla you get the idea the Magnificent 7 right now are growing their revenue slower than paler and yet yet we still have a situation where paler only has 26% of the buys all of those mag seven stocks 75 and 80% of the analysts recommending it as a buy so what does that mean well on November 7th the company is going to come out with their earnings and if they continue the trend of beating earnings per share and revenue growth you are going to see two things happen first of all analysts are going to start coming out and upgrading the stock that is one of the most most powerful Catalyst over the short and long term because what happens is when Wall Street talks people still listen when they come off of those sell recommendations and bring them up to buys that is going to drive buy more buying power not only from institutions but individual investors like you and me the second thing is look at the Target price right now on paler it's at $275 per share that's where Wall Street thinks the stock should be and right now the Stock's at $433 hm you're going to see those Target prices start to come up as well they're going to raise them up into the 60s in the 70% range because they're now seeing the fundamental value now one thing that everybody's going to start saying is hey CJ you know what paler if I look it's got a p ratio of $233 now remember the E part and the P part matter quite a bit if you look at how they're going to start growing the earnings right now per share that number should start coming up very quickly with the revenue growth but I'll point out the July of 2023 when Nvidia had a PE ratio of 200 and right now you've got a PE ratio of about 220 on paler so valuation is in the eye of the market not necessarily A valuation by just looking at a simple PE I always like to put that into perspective here so what do we expect to see from paler here as we move forward not over the next couple days but I am talking the next six months to the next year or so well as you can see right now the stock is right below making those new all-time highs that November 7th earnings report is likely to be the Catalyst that takes us well above that uh that all-time high you have to break up above $45 we're just about 3% below that right now notice the 20day or a 20-month moving average is in a bullish Trend that means that the trend is your friend on this stock when we look at the shorter term I always like to look at the shortterm daily chart because at heart I always look for entries right now and I should disclose that I do own paler shares as well as leaps I'll talk about how you can position for this trend in a second but at that 425 $43 or so think about this the stock right now if you look at it over the last couple of months is up more than 40% right heading into earnings investors or the short-term Traders are going to get a little bit nervous about that $ 4344 price and I think you'll see a little bit of selling so so where does that leave you looking in the case of paler if you're looking to get in well right here at that $40 level round numbers I'm talking about expectations in Psychology round numbers always Provide support for companies like this the $40 level is going to be a key and if that were to break the 3750 look at the consolidation that we did right there and your 20-day moving average that's the spot where you're going to find buyers coming in just ahead of the earnings so delay set this up for you expect to see a little bit of weakness November 7th is the earnings date I'll expect to see maybe the week or so maybe two weeks before that investors pulling back taking a little bit of those short-term profits right now 3750 is a spot that I look to buy in and I'm looking on the long term now in terms of where the stock goes from here and let me pull up the other slide for you here CU I do like to talk about where we head from here in my summary so as I said look for a slight technical pullback as the stock breaches that new all-time high or gets really close to it before earnings round number support at 40 3750 is the next level where I see a buying opportunity on that pullback a healthy pullback Shares are likely to see that selling before November 7th that's the earnings date and I believe that they're going to come out with the trend that they've got in place right now and the contracts they've been announcing over the last quarter and keep in mind that management upgraded their outlook for this quarter so that November 7th number Management's already expecting it to be good typically they're not going to do that unless things are going to be great at that point a good number is going to start to wake up all those Wall Street analysts and you're going to see almost immediately the day after upgrades on the stock from hold to buy from sells to hold and more importantly you're going to see those Target prices coming up any positive news is what's going to drive that short term you look for a target of $50 on penter I think it could run there very quickly after that earnings announcement and then $60 as your next level for the six-month period and that's a 3 to six-month Target as for where the stock goes over the next year talked about 150% return for uh Palante tier here that we've seen over the last year I believe that you match that performance and the stock has an opportunity to trade up to an 80 $85 maybe even $90 price range over a 12- Monon period now let's talk about how I position for that move personally my Approach and I'm a long-term investor I do trade but I am a long-term investor I buy and I hold the stock first of all and if I want to get a little fancy and generate my own dividend maybe I sell covered calls on this but I don't want to get called away on a stock that's got this much upside volatility so be careful when you're doing that so A Buy and Hold strategy is what I look at here if I want to leverage the move a little bit using options I don't buy three or six month options or something like that no I start looking at the 2026 and the 2027 leaps those are options that'll be available in January and i' buy 10 or 15% out of the money knowing that the stock is going to move 50 60 70% over the next 6 to 12 months and continue higher that's how I trade it from either a Buy and Hold standpoint or a leaps option standpoint Point as for stops and anything like that I always keep my eye on the horizon when I'm looking at an opportunity remember this is a case where AI technology the nvidias of the world are handing the Baton over to the AI service companies and that's where you're going to see a lot of the monetization in these stocks over the next couple of years hope I kept it very simple for you as always I wish you the best trading success and remember to check out the link below to get our five free stock report every week Monday morning 8:00 before you get to trading you'll get five stocks in your email box it's a great way to start the week all you have to do is click on the link below and don't forget to like And subscribe for more content like this I'm Chris Johnson wishing you the best trading success have a great day
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