저자: ChrisJohnson · 외국인
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팔란티어는 실적(EPS 0.14달러, 매출 약 8.27억달러, 전년비 36% 증가, 상업매출 64%·정부매출 45% 성장)과 2025년 가이던스 상향으로 저평가 상태라고 주장. PER만으로 고평가라 판단하면 안 되며, 월가 애널리스트 비중이 낮아 상향 여지가 크다고 봄. 기술적으로 100달러 부근 조정 후 6개월 내 140~150달러, 2025년 내 200달러 이상 목표를 제시. 5월 실적발표 전후 추가 상승 기대.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Chris Johnson with money morning don't get left on the sidelines with Palante teer and I know a lot of you are saying hey it's overvalued CJ uh-uh don't fall for that trap I'm going to take the next five or 10 minutes or so and walk you through yesterday's earnings just a quick Glimpse at it walk you through the price chart but walk you through the dynamic that is going to drive this stock higher over the next 6 to 12 months this is going to be another top performer of 2025 and you don't want to sit on the sidelines and watch it spend this time with me and you'll be thankful and a better investor for it let's jump into it all right as I said let's jump into it right off the bat I'm going to talk about valuation in probably 5 to six minutes or so I know a lot of you have that as a little bit of a keyword to listen for because everybody's talking about how paler is overvalued don't fall for that myth right now we're going to to bust it up but first let's talk about the earnings announcement that happened yesterday because that does go towards the valuation keep in mind this company's been around for 5 years now 2020 is when you started to see paler start trading and it's important part of the history that you're going to learn here over the next five or 10 minutes so last night they blew away and blew away is a small number in when you're looking at their actual results 14 cents and that's why that PE ratio is so high they beat analysts expect ations 14 cents is actually what they earned they had a robust quarter and that was a good number for paler Revenue crushed it jumped up 36% year-over-year and that's compared to obviously last year 827 is where you find it in terms of millions of dollars the company did in quarterly Revenue it's a small number company right now it's not a Tesla it's obviously not an Nvidia but it's big enough to be in the nasda D 100 because of its valuation which everybody's saying is overdone not true this is why you want to keep an eye on paler and not get left behind this quarter they grew their commercial revenue and that has kind of turned into what their growth category is right now they're getting out there in the a AI Services business but that grew 64% to 2 point or I'm sorry $214 million that's a 10-point jump from last quarter the AI platform business business continues to bring in bus uh customers 400% we've seen it grow over the last 3 years now something that is going on here with paler that a lot of people don't talk about is how they are turning into an AI Service Company their government business which is what you're looking at right now it expanded at 45% year-over-year so 65 on the business side and then 45% on the government side right it's good the company's getting out there into the private sector and that's where you're going to find some just huge growth over the next three to five years I'm going to take this off screen for a second so I can explain it a little deeper over the last five years we've seen AI see its innovation in the way of Technology you've got Nvidia you've got Microsoft you the cloud everything's come in to build the engine call it the AI engine you've got the gpus from Nvidia that are core of that engine the brain everything else that's surrounding it allowing it to do the comp the calculations and moving the data Etc and then you've got paler and companies like IBM and salesforce.com and service now and there's a longer list and we'll talk about that another day but you have these companies that are putting that engine into the vehicle that they're taking out to the businesses and that's where the money is going to be made over the next three five maybe even 10 years Quantum Computing comes after that this is an innovation cycle that's going to move very quickly but remember the United States is a service economy so AI services are going to come out and reach almost everybody and the order of magnitude in terms of Revenue that it is going to make over AI technology what's allowing it to do that work is going to be huge that's why you need to be watching companies like Palante tier their business from the government that's their Foundation grew at 64% year over year 10 points I mean they've done very well management Alex karp came out on their call yesterday and said we expect to do more business in 2025 they have people positioned in the administration well that's going to help to get that going but their expectations are that is going to grow but they see the big opportunity in the business sector another company as I mentioned it IBM is already doing that check out their earnings report that they just recently dropped because it was impressive especially for a company like IBM but I digress here's the real business what's going on right now the last three quarters Alex karp and paler have raised estimates not only for their fiscal year guidance but their next quarter's guidance they've consistently done this and they've consistently come out ahead of Wall Street in each situation what they dropped on us yesterday as they see upside revenue of 858 we're going to call it 860 because that's in the middle of the range right now Wall Street expects 800 just under 800 so they are right now knocking the cover off the ball about 6% 12 six and a quar perc or so better than what wall Street's expecting and that number continues to grow and that is why this company is not overvalued that is why you can't look at a PE ratio and say this company is overvalued it give you a little bit of an idea possibly if you're just looking at the earnings but not at the potential I always tell people don't fall into the Trap of just saying a PE ratio is either a good investment or a bad investment and it relates to Value if you're sticking with your Proctor and gambles your coate palm olives your hannes Brands Etc keep looking at the PE Ratio but if you're looking at companies like retti and I'm pulling out some extens really really big PE ratio they're not making any money palente tier right now is balancing between three and 400 uh on a PE ratio if you're looking for speculative growth opportunities then you don't want to look at the PE e ratio and make that simple determination that the stock is overvalued the valuation is put on the stock by the market by investors that are buying the long-term perspective they're not just buying the earnings as it compares to the price today I hope that's a lesson that you write down it's a valuable one you would have missed out on a lot of the 1998 1999 run in technology if you just been looking at PE ratios you probably wouldn't have bought Amazon for a long time you know what I'm talking about let's keep looking here let's get beyond what the expectations are here's your summary of earnings for palena over the last five years and you'll notice the very very strong Trend that we're seeing in earnings growth and the expectations are coming up but they are not high right now and what you note is that over the last couple of years here we've seen some substantial performance and this is because the market tends to underestimate estimate say that it's overvalued so underestimate what the company's value is and that's when you get surprises like we're seeing today with the stock trading 23% higher so what is the thing that's going to change here this is it we already know that paler is going to continue to grow their earnings and revenue aggressively much faster than what you're seeing with the Magnificent 7 and at some point Wall Street is going to come off of their perch and say okay maybe we need to upgrade the stock if you've seen Alex karp talk on CNBC he's actually called out the Wall Street Community and said they just don't get it they don't understand where we're going and what we're doing there's a reason for this let me go back to that other chart this is why Wall Street stays soured on shares of paler if you remember back when paler started trading 2020 and into 2021 when they first had their first earnings that were coming out expectations were through the roof because they looked like the dream the unicorn of AI companies they were going to go in and use the technology and get to work in the government specifically Department of Defense was their some of their first largest contracts they were going to get to work and make just incredible revenue and profits it didn't happen the expectations were here and paler operated way down here Wall Street has not forgiven them for that that's why you don't see the Wall Street analyst upgrading the stock today 14% of them and that number is going to go up because Morgan Stanley just upgraded the stock this morning the 4th of February because expectations are exceeded they're giving up the value argument right now and saying paler is definitely going to go higher 14% on the buys 59% holds 27% are sells 3 months ago that 27% was only 177% so the analysts have actually gotten more bearish on palente tier as it has done this and we'll be fair and roll the chart back a little bit and say there's your three-month view they got more bearish as it was doing this now at the same time you have Nvidia Microsoft Tesla Amazon the mag 7 who have been going sideways here and their earnings growth and their earnings surprise and revenue even is right now being challenged but this is what you see in terms of the recommendations for the mag 7even companies this is the average recommendation for those companies all seven of them 133% holds 2% sells 85% buys this is why inidia right now can't push itself higher after last quarter's good earnings report Nvidia dropped a great earnings report on the market and said everything looked good Blackwells moving forward but the stock is now trading lower and it is because Wall Street has already put everything they've got into that bucket they can't buy more it is saturated with optimism versus what we see with paler where it's climbing a wall of worry a lot of people doubting obviously Alex karp uses that comment that is what's going to be special what you're going to see over the next couple months is the the upgrades like Morgan Stanley today you're going to see price tag or Price targets right rather start to increase as well average price for right now from the Wall Street uh recommendations is $70 per share it's trading at 103 today 32% below uh the current price so expect to see those go up and of course whenever Wall Street gets more bullish all of you or all the investors out there that are watching Wall Street will say okay maybe it isn't overvalued and I'm telling you today is a speculative investment it is not follows this pattern whenever we have a contrarian play which paler is a contrarian play you have to see investors go through a period where they have disbelief that's a little bit of where we are right now people don't believe paler because remember they had that period back in 2021 and 20122 where they just really disappointed everybody got rid of the stock we accepted how bad it was you got to despair which is where you buy the shares and now we're in disbelief that things can continue to get better eventually wall Street's going to start start accepting this and that drives us right up to that Euphoria which I would argue is where some of those mag s stocks are which is why it's harder for them to advance I did a video a couple months back check it out if you didn't see it it was on specifically Nvidia and paler in which company was going to double or outperform the other obviously the answer was paler thank goodness I hope a lot of you listen to that because it's been a great position to be in so where do we stock see the stock going for now now well shares a paler when we look at the current price are trading right at 100 bucks they moved up from about 85 investors that were paying attention saw a buy the dip opportunity here when it pulled back to its 50-day moving average anytime paler pulls down to that 50-day moving average it's a decent opportunity to buy the dip you're going to see shares kind of Bobble around the $100 level for the next week or two maybe even dip below it because from a technical perspective we are over bought now just like fundamental valuation pees overbought is something that is identified by the market only look here where the stock was overbought and it still was able to go from $60 to $80 so overbought from a technical perspective is one of those things you just watch and say well maybe it's going to pull back but more likely we see a consolidation across 100 my Target right now when I look at where paler is going over the next 3 to six months remember they've got their earnings coming up in May I think the Stock's got a good chance at making another 40 to 50% Advance up to $140 $150 ahead of that report Wall Street analysts are going to start upgrading the stock and that's going to drive more buyers into the stock for the long term we get another uh earnings report like this in May and you're going to see another strong summer for paler shares that's going to Target $200 at some point in 2025 maybe even into early 2026 but my guess is before we have this conversation next year you're going to see a $200 and higher price tag on paler that is it I'm going to remind everybody take a minute subscribe like this we're going to be doing more content like this again get the get things revved up lots to talk about in the market also take a second and sign up for the free five stock watch list we send it out every Monday morning it's free so go ahead and use the link below and get that we'll give you a gross stock an income stock a stock under $10 a short a stock to short and a growth stock every single week till next time I'm Chris Johnson with money morning wishing you the best trading success have a great day
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