저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 2026년 AI 파생 수혜주로 Tesla, Microsoft, Palantir, CrowdStrike, Apple을 꼽으며 강세 전망을 제시. Nvidia는 여전히 주요 종목이나 이번 5선에는 미포함. 2026년 2분기·3분기 변동성을 예상하나 4분기 강세 랠리를 전망. 자막 후반의 AI 인프라 영상(채널 불명)은 발언자 식별이 불가하여 제외.
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techology research. Got kind of a Magnum uh PI shirt on. Uh we we were the jacket's muted. Uh you went with the uh you went with the shirt today for for this appearance. All right. I I can we we we can do that. Dan, it's since it's the beginning, you know, we're at the very end of the year, so we always want to, you know, think that that suddenly the calendar has anything to do with anything, but we we are interested in 2026.
So, you've got some uh some tech stocks that you like and then it's notable that some are missing from the ones that you like. So, I'm just wondering, does that mean that you're negative on the ones that don't make the list or that you just like the ones that make the list better and they're all going to go up?
Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, like, look, Nvidia, that continues to be one of our top names overall going into 2026. But I I mean the reason the five that we picked Tesla, Microsoft, Palanteer, you know, you look at Crowd Strike and you know what I and even Apple, it's about the derivatives of the AI revolution playing out.
I mean that that's our whole thesis going 2026. For every dollar spent on Nvidia chip, there's an 8 to10 multiplier across the rest of tech. And that's why I think those are the names. Those five are the ones specifically going into early part of 26 that I think are going to boom. I mean that that's why we pound the table on those five names.
Exactly. So that you you kind of summed it up right at the beginning. You said look Nvidia is one of your favorite names but it's not one of the five that you mentioned that doesn't mean that uh that Nvidia is not not going to do well. You said them quickly. So Microsoft what's the story on on Microsoft Azure?
I mean look to when you look at enterprise as you see the movements in the cloud and AI Redmond they're really owning that race. I think this is a stock $100 upside. That's why Microsoft sticks out on Azure and AI demand front and center. Great. Apple, you mentioned quickly, but Apple just it doesn't even matter if they're any good at at some of these new things.
They're just so good at at what they do with everything else. Yeah. And Joe, I think the whole thing for Apple is like look, they've been on a treadmill 2.5 speed, right? They've been nowhere in AI, but now as we go into 26, we we expect a major Google partnership in terms of the spring. Now the consumer AI revolution goes through Certino and I think that is significant.
We talk about $75 incremental the stock is the AI multiple that starts to increase for Apple. That's why I view that as just a glaring name that sticks out. I if I text someone and it's green it's like what's wrong with you? I I don't know how other people compete with Apple. The ecosystem is so powerful at le I'm I'm a simpleton with this kind of stuff and I just can't imagine trying you got anyone not have an Apple uh not have an iPhone.
No one. Who Who are the Who has If you have an iPhone, is it always blue with your texts? I'm I'm like a neophy. Is that the way it works? I thought there was some There's some messages. It could be. But if some Dan, if someone sound like an idiot, but if someone does have green, is that not an apple when you're texting them?
Is that really? Well, no. You But usually usually that's why those we usually delete them from our text chain, right? I mean, once someone's agreeing. So that's that's always a red flag, right? I know. I'm uh it's just I do so many and and believe me, I'm uh I'm a novice at all this stuff, but Apple's just got a lock on.
How about Tesla? Why is that trading? What what's it what's a multiple now? It's is about robots. Well, look, I think this the whole story is the autonomous chapter now coming to Tesla and and I think this is going to be the most important year in its history for Musk and Tesla because autonomous and robotics and I think we think autonomous worth a trillion dollars alone to the Tesla story now Musk wartime CEO and it speaks to our view you know look for the first time in 30 years the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech and I think Tesla front and center in terms of physical AI that's why we love that period right now.
Um it's early. It's it's something my father invented back in 72 is in the 73 almanac. Believer in it as an indicator. Yes. Um and the fact that the last five days of the year, the first two of the new year are a bullish period. It's when you know not everyone's around. People are buying up stocks making new lows and bargain stocks and stuff that was sold for tax off selling.
So I'm a believer, but it's really an indicator. It's not just a rally to trade. It's something we need to look at. And if Santa Claus fails to call, bears may come to Broaden Mall. as my father said and coined that phrase back in back in back in you know 72 a poet you didn't even know it no it's him now it's a poet but it's it's only a may come it's it's something you know it it's a flag you start to look at other indicators combined with our January barometer which also was invented by Yale back in back in ' 72 and the first five days of year gives us our January indicator trifecta all three hit the first five days of the trading days of the year the Santa Claus rally that you mentioned which you got right and um the full month January brahma for the S&P S&P is up 90.6 6% of the time, 29 to 32 years for an average gain of 17.7%.
So, hitting a trifecta pretty good for uh the market. All right, so that's something to watch for. So, we got to see if we get that Santa Claus rally first to get that trifecta. Few days left. All right, I want to talk to you about the the full year of 2026. Um, a lot of talk about the fact that there's no strategist out there who are bearish about next year.
Everybody's bullish about it. A lot of talk about that. I want to hit you with something else. Um, we had a guest yesterday that gave us a great stat. Second year of a presidential term. Obviously, next year is President Trump's second year. The average gain on the S&P is 3.3%. But you're looking at a different trend, the sixth year of a president's term.
Even though obviously President Trump's terms are broken up between President Biden's presidency in between, you're still looking at that trend of the six year. Now, what happens on a six year when it comes to the markets? Well, the president's really trying to cement their legacy. It's kind of like a a pre-election year of a of a regular term where they're really trying to push as much through as possible to make the the people happy to cement their legacy to keep their party in power.
And um you know, we've seen a president that's pretty hands-on and interested in his legacy and how he's perceived. I I see that happening here. Uh all of the worst case scenario uh you know, fallout from the policies and tariffs have not materialized. Things are looking pretty well. Just look at GDP.
Look at the stock market. It's pretty robust. We made a couple more new highs here for the Dow um in in December. That's 20 this year. Um so it's it's one of those years where you you you know you're looking at somebody who's um doesn't have to worry about what what you know getting reelected. They're just doing everything that they can to keep the market and the economy moving along.
You sound very bullish, but you say there's going to be a lot of volatility in Q2 and Q3. What's the cause in your mind? Is there a historical precedent to have that that volatility in Q2 and Q3? And then what leads us to the rally in Q4 because you're also calling for that. What's the problem? How do we fix it?
And how do we go higher? Well, I mean, you've got your usual seasonal weakness during the the weak summer months, the salary period, the worst the worst months of the year, excuse me, May through October, um where people tend to do other things and get outside and and get away from the market. And then you've also got the midterm elections themselves with which tend to take um attention away from economics and the economy.
And again, with this current administration, this current president been known and shown himself to get involved in, you know, down ballot elections. Um and that's what what can happen in the midterm year. So you see that week this the incumbent president's party tends to lose seats in the midterm year.
So we've got a very thin margin in in Congress. That that becomes a fear. Markets do better under Republican congresses. That's a whole other story. But um and then you know Q4. Yeah. So you say August October is the best window to buy stocks, right? But that's right before the midterms. You're also I'm looking at your notes.
You're not counting on a possible shutdown, tariffs being overturned. So, does this trend stay the same? August to October is the best period if we see some some pretty big macro things, a government shutdown, uh the possibility of tariffs being overturned, or does that kind of break in your mind the historical precedence and the pattern that you're seeing?
Well, I mean, that's where where the, you know, the fear of what's going to the outcome of the midterm election start to happen. You know, Mark's an anticipating mechanism. It's going to get um go down ahead of the elections and August, October is that weak seasonal period anyway. Didn't happen this year, which is a bullish sign in in in my view.
So, um, that sets up this Q4 rally. And the sweet spot of the four-year cycle is Q4 of the midterm year to Q2 of the pre-election year. Dow and S&P up 19 and 20%. NASDAQ up almost 30 29.3% I believe. Um, from Q4 of midterm year through Q2 of the pre-election year. You got that 50% move possible. NASDAQ does from the from the midterm low of the pre-election year high about 66%.
So, it's just set up. I mean, Q4 is where all the rallies happen. Um, you know, we've seen that so far this year a bit. I mean, there's there's some profit taking. We've come off of a big AI tech. Expect to wait in line for returns, which are again expected to peak for the year this week. According to Adobe, sure returns are annoying for consumers, but the rising cost of returns is a true pain point for retailers.
Courtney Reagan joins us now with more. Hey, Courtney. This is one of my favorite topics. Reverse logistics. I know it sounds so sexy, right? But seriously, returns is really fascinating to me. That hot pink sweater, not really you? Or maybe you don't really need more cheese knives from your in-laws.
Or maybe that's just me. But the NRF estimates almost 16% of total 2025 retail purchases will be returned. That's 850 billion worth. And it'll cost retail 75 billion. The cost to return an item can be anywhere between 20 and 65% of its original value. Why? Well, because a return triggers a decision tree of sorts.
software and increasingly AI determines the path to recoup the most value at the lowest cost. From restocking it in store, shipping it back to a fulfillment center, selling to a liquidator, or throwing it away. And as online shopping increases, so do returns. 22% of online purchased apparel is returned.
That's almost four times the rate for instore bought apparel. This at least according to an ICE survey. Some estimates actually put that much higher because consumers are bracketing or they're buying more than one size or color and rarely intending to keep more than one but expecting free shipping each way.
Blue Yonder manages supply chain and returns for 23 of the nation's top 25 retailers. CEO Duncan Andro says few retailers have one person that owns returns, but those that do see a significant well return. You're talking about double-digit improvements in gross margin. you're talking about improvements in sales.
Like I said, I mean, if this if you're in apparel and onethird of your um inventory is being returned, that's basically your largest supplier that you're not managing. You've got inventory coming back in, a lot of it, which you know, almost a third of it doesn't go back on sale. It goes into a landfill.
Higher returns hurt margins. So, retail return policies are getting tighter. Even personalized returns management firm Loop says the number of brands charging for returns is up 6% year-over-year. That's the fourth straight year of increases. Some brands are shortening return windows or maybe saying you actually can't get a refund.
You actually have to do an exchange. AI is helping making those personalized personto person in some cases. Hey guys, welcome back to my channel. I hope you all are doing well today. Let's start our video. Most people think the AI already happened. They are wrong. The real AI cycle has not even started yet.
We are still standing at the entrance of the largest technological expansion is the human history and the next decade will be create a more million trillion dollar company than any period before it. Why this boom is different? Every past tech cycle was about software. This one is about physical infrastructure.
AI is not an app. AI is in industrial revolution which means the real winners will not be a social app. They will be a companies building the digital factories of the future. Nvidia is no longer just a chip company. Nvidia has quietly become the oper operating system of the reality itself. Factories, robots, logistics, defense, energy and transportation.
All of them are now being built rebuilt on Nvidia software stack. Once an industry is built on Nvidia, switching become nearly impossible. This is not an competition. This is a structural control. The new AI control layers. Three layers can uh now decide the global power. Compute, memory, and electricity.
However, uh controls these three uh control AI. This is a new economic command center. Memory is the new oil. Without a high uh bandwidth memory, AI chips are useless. Memory production is booked years in advance. Only a handful of companies can supply it. This is quietly become the one of the most profitable industries on the earth.
Power is be becoming strategic. AI data centers now consume as much power as cities. Utilities, transformers, uh transformers, cooling uh systems and the grid builders are now critical infrastructure. They are being booked out into into the 2028 and beyond. Power is no longer boring. Power is now a weapon.
Data centers land is the new digital gold. A factories must be built near the high capacity substations. This make a certain land location suddenly priceless. A new industrial real estate boom has begun. Robotics will control labor. Robots are becoming the new workforce. The company that control the robotic operating systems will control the global productivity.
This is the next trillion dollar software layer. The nuclear AI revolution renewable are not enough. AI needs stable massive and base load power. This is a why nuclear energy is returning. Small uh modu modular reactor will power AI cities, data centers and manufacturing hubs. Nuclear become the backbone of AI dominance.
Why the most people will miss this? Because it's look boring. Steel, concrete, cooling, transformers, grid lines and warehouses. But this is the where the real fortunes are built. The next decade, the next 10 years will be received the money, labor and the nation. This is not a trend. This is a civilization reset and the early infrastructure builder will control the future.
Outro. This is why I remain extremely bullish on the AI super cycle. The real explosion is still still ahead. Now we are only at the beginning. The real AI empire infrastructure war. Most people still believe AI is about chatbots. They think this is a revolution is happening inside phones and laptops.
But the truth is far bigger. AI is building an extremely new physical world and whoever own the infrastructure of the world will control the future economy. The AI infrastructure war has already begun. Right now a silent war is happening not with missiles but with the land power stations, transformers, memory chips and the water rights.
This is a new arm race. Countries are fighting to uh lock down grid access, nuclear permit, cheap uh fabrication capacity, high bandwidth memory supply and cooling water sources. Because without this AI growth stops why Nvidia is the center of the storm. Nvidia is not just selling the chips anymore.
They are becoming the operational operating system of machines, robots and factories. Every robots trained inside the omniverse in a is a futureia customers. Every AI factory is built on KUDA is a permanently logged into Nvidium. Once an economy is trained on your stack, it will never leaves. This is how empires are built.
Power is the biggest bottleneck. Comput is not the bottleneck. Electricity is AI data centers are the so power hungry that cities are running out of the capacity. Some AI clusters now draw more electricity than the entire country did in 10 years ago. This is a why utilities uh nucleus and the grid builders are exploding.
Without the new power plants, AI growth physically stops. The return of nuclear solar and the wind cannot power AI alone. AI need stable 24 into 7 base load. Nuclear is the only solution that scales small modular reactor will become the engine of AI cities. This is a not speculation. Permit are already being filed.
Data centers real estate is the new gold rush. The most valuable land on the earth are no longer the beach front. It is a land sitting next to substation and nuclear corridor. Developers are quietly locking up these areas for next 20 years. There's a next uh manhatter land grab but the digital memory control AI speed without high bandwidth memory GPUs are useless.
HBM uh factories are sold out years in advance. This creates a permanent pricing flaw. Memories companies becoming toll booth on the AI economy. Robots replace labor. Within 5 to 10 years, warehouses, factories, farms and construction sites will run mostly on autovinous robots. The cost of labor will collapse.
Production will explode and the company's controlling robot robotics operating system will dominate the world. The most important truth. This is not a bubble. Walls are demand demands are illusions. AI demand is the real and structural. There are not enough chips, not enough power and not enough memory, not enough data centers.
We are still in the shortage mode, not access, which means the super cycle is still early age. Final message, the greatest fortune of the next decade will be not built on apps. They will build on power plants, land, memory factories and the EA infrastructures. This is the real empire and it is only just the beginning.
And if you are watching this video till now then please subscribe my channel or also share with your friends who are still holding Nvidia.
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