저자: TomLee · 외국인
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AI 붐은 초기 단계이며 AI 관련 실적 호조와 Nvidia 신고가가 이어진다고 봄. 금리인상 가능성은 낮아졌고 10년물 금리는 하락 압력을 받을 것으로 봄. 4분기는 리셋 이후 미국 주식에 우호적이라는 낙관론이 우세하며, 다만 이란 리스크와 시장 협소성(소수 대형주 쏠림)은 우려로 제기됨.
다듬은 글
And I know this is fueling the anti-AI movement , but in our opinion, I do n't think AI will cause mass unemployment. And I will explain a few reasons why. First, as an actual pattern, and this is a study from Hubstaff, but there are other companies that have confirmed this. In a typical workweek, only about 25%, or 10 of the 40 hours someone works, are spent doing actual work.
Most people spend their workday getting ready for work, drinking coffee, reading email, thinking about what they're going to say. Um, very little of the work we do today is actually real work. The second thing to point out is that only one in four jobs is, so to speak , "real work," according to the Asana study.
Cisco is a good example. From 1994 to 1997, Cisco's price rose from 80 cents to $9. And then there was the Asian financial crisis, and it fell by 40%. People would say it was the end, but a year later Cisco went up to 18. But then the Long-Term Capital situation happened, and it fell 40%. People would say, "Oh, here we go again." Cisco eventually went up to 80.
And that was a hundredfold increase from, you know , 1994. I think that's a good analogy, and I think we're about at that point today. But AI stocks won't rise forever. However, AI trading creates inflationary pressure on memory and energy consumption. Um, these are bottlenecks. The reality is that raising Fed rates will not slow down spending on AI.
So I think in many ways, and again, flash memory doesn't really show up in the consumer CPI. So I think we should just remember that the market is selling off today because of good PMIs. This is probably just a reminder of what the market psychology is at this point. Let's look at the 10-year bond, 5.264 , down about five to six basis points from the levels we saw yesterday.
And actually, Jim, I think that's where we should start this conversation. Bond yields retreated slightly after a softer-than- expected jobs report, and we see the tech sector taking off while stocks renew their 52-week highs. Well, I think you're starting in the right place, which is with the 10- year bond yield.
That is, today it has rebounded from teenage values, and now it is 5.26. I think it's just a little muscle memory, Frank. I don't think this is the trend we should be paying attention to, because we've had a lot of data this week that's taking some pressure off the Fed to raise rates, at least this month.
We got the PCE report, which was a little weaker than expected, and today's labor market report was, so to speak, a " golden mean." It was positive enough that we weren't worried about a significant slowdown, but not so hot that the Fed would have to act this month. By the way, I think it would be unwise to raise rates this month.
I think it would just make them a target a week before the election . So, now the probability of a rate hike this month has dropped to about 20%. I think this should drag down the yield on 10-year bonds. I'll note, by the way, that 2-year bonds still predict about four rate hikes ahead. Here is my prediction.
You may disagree with him . I think 2-year bonds are looking too far ahead, okay? That's why. If energy prices simply remain at their current levels, let alone the decline that is occurring today, then over time inflation will fall, because, as we all know, it is the rate of change, not the price index.
So, with that in mind, I think you'll see inflation moving closer to target. The Fed is not so keen to raise rates. By the way, a few days ago we saw good results from Micron. There are many reasons to remain optimistic about the end of this year, as I do. So, to quickly pick up on your point: the CME FedWatch tool shows a 77% probability of rate hold today, while just a week ago it was around 36%.
Brent, I want to go to you. Given the market right now , with the NASDAQ hitting a 52-week high again, does this mean traders don't believe the Fed is going to raise rates? Is this what gives the market confidence? I think, with the midterm elections coming up, of course, in November, there is a very low probability that the Fed will take any action before the December meeting .
They simply want to avoid any suspicion of political bias in one direction or another. So, in my opinion, the Fed will hold off until at least December. I agree with everything Jim just said. Two-year bonds indicate that a series of rate hikes are ahead of us. They say inflation is higher. And I believe that two-year bonds are overvalued.
So I think that as core inflation declines, the two-year bond will start to approach the Fed rate, rather than the 10- year, as is happening now. And this, in my opinion, is a very positive signal. Once we get past October, which historically increases by 58 %. Of course, everyone remembers the crash of '87, but it's more of an anomaly.
And I think this midterm election cycle is a great time to average out the value of assets you like, like our ETFs, if the volatility that's typical for this period arises . Brent, you didn't see this. Jim did a little victory dance because you agreed with his arguments. Amy, I want to reach out to you.
Is it too early for the market to celebrate victory? Remember, the carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East. The situation with Iran is not resolved. Following Jim: Brent crude oil fell 0.75%. WTI fell by 2%, but a new energy shock is certainly possible, plus there are still inflation reports to come before the end of the year.
It's like he's saying, "mission accomplished." Everything seems to be moving in the right direction. I...that...don't use those words. Enough, enough. You say that according to the vector we are moving in the right direction . Thanks for the correction. But should we be a little worried? Is now the right time to be optimistic about stocks, or is it better to be cautious in the fourth quarter?
Look, I think in the short term we're safe, but in the long term...I'm not focused on the next Fed meeting or even the December one. It will be difficult to lower rates for a long time without slowing economic growth. If you think economic growth will be sustainable, and most people do , then rates will remain high, and I think that will ultimately put pressure on the S&P multiple.
It has always been this way, and I think it will continue to be so. This is not a one- quarter forecast, but a sustained rate cut would require economic growth to be significantly lower than it is now. You know, speaking of the S&P, Malcolm, the index is trying to avoid a third week of decline in the last four, but it's also important to note that it's still only 1% below its all-time high .
Yes, I think it's realistic for the next month, at least until we start getting reports from tech companies with cost projections and stuff, we're going to keep listening to the "old hits." So, all this year, or at least since February, we've had a problem with high 10- year yields. It gradually increased while the war continued and energy prices remained high.
All of this was relevant throughout the year, and the market ignored it . Stock investors, in particular, didn't take this into account. I think this trend will probably continue at least through October. Yes, September was difficult. Seasonally, this is a difficult month, at least historically . But I think a lot of it had to do with the pessimism about AI, which made people question the assets they had been holding for months and years—maybe cracks were starting to appear there .
Now that it's calmed down a bit, we'll probably get an IPO from Anthropic in mid-November, at least that's what we've been promised at this point . This will make people much more willing to continue taking the same risks, regardless of whether oil breaks $ 125 or $150, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow.
Because these factors have always existed. OK. The second day of the fourth quarter, obviously, optimistic forecasts are emerging today. One of them , Scott Rubner from Citadel , calls it a “ fourth quarter reset .” I want to hear your opinion on this. We are more constructive on US equities in the fourth quarter.
September provided much of the desired reboot. Leverage has decreased, retail investors have cooled, systemic players have sold, valuations have compressed, the market enters Q4 from a cleaner position, with significantly more room to build exposure. Jim, do you agree or disagree? Hmm, I agree. And let me clarify what I said earlier.
When I said "mission accomplished," I meant that it was a bit of an exaggeration. That was my... No, but I meant it, specifically, regarding Iran. I am optimistic . I agree with Citadel's comment about what the next few months may bring. And I just want to emphasize, you know, to reinforce the argument that the price of oil doesn't necessarily have to go down.
Diesel doesn't necessarily have to become cheaper for the situation to calm down. We just need prices to stop rising. And I think even if we start bombing after the election, okay, I don't want that to happen, but if it does, there are already a number of detours around the Strait of Hormuz. So I think we've already started the process of disengagement from the Strait of Hormuz, which will take years, but we're already well on our way .
As for the rest of the situation, I mean we have good economic growth. GDP according to the Atlanta Fed is 3.7%. Someone will say, "Hey, a week ago it was 5%." That's true, but 3.7% is still pretty good. We know about profit growth. The labor market, I would say, is good. People like to say it's stable, but I would say it's good when weekly jobless claims stay below 200,000 for 2 months in a row.
So, I think the fundamental situation looks very good until the end of the year. Okay, the fundamentals are good, but what about the breadth of the market, Malcolm? I want to go to you. We have already talked about this a lot . Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said, among other things, that 400 S&P stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average.
Is it a concern from a technical perspective and in general that there is such narrowness in the market? And you talked about this Anthropic IPO. Most of the activity is concentrated in the technology sector. Yes. Yes, this would be worrisome if it were n't for the fact that it's been going on for 4 years since ChatGPT blew up the world, right?
We had these rotations, or even "false maneuvers ," I would call them, during the summer when it seemed like the expansion was about to begin. It seemed like other sectors would start to play a role, but I have been arguing the opposite for some time now. Many of the sectors we see spillovers into are also related to the AI boom, right?
We're talking about industrial companies, about heavy equipment, about HVAC companies, and about second- and third- order effects that we suddenly learn about, and that these companies exist and have tickers because they help enable the development of AI. So, for now, we have no reason to stop believing that OpenAI and Anthropic will somehow find a way to spend at the level they agreed to with these hyperscalers .
Again, I already said: this will be a reprise of old hits. This means that the S &P 490 probably won't matter much at the end of the year. In fact, it was these 10 companies that did the bulk of the work throughout the year. Today, Nvidia shares reached an all-time high and approached the $6 trillion mark.
And in the same 24 hours, federal agents arrested a California resident accused of smuggling $300 million worth of Nvidia chips into China . Let's analyze both events. Nvidia shares hit a new all-time intraday high today, hitting $237.55, boosting the company's market cap to about $5.7 trillion—its first record since May.
This means Nvidia is less than $300 billion away from becoming the first company in history to be worth $6 trillion. This completes the rapid turnaround. The stock has risen nearly 25% from its low in late July, when concerns about the prospects for AI wiped out more than $1 trillion in its value. This growth is fueled by a combination of factors that we talked about this week.
A record $ 150 billion in share buybacks , high demand for AI agents, and Nvidia's new open platform for agent security. Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore again named Nvidia his top pick in the semiconductor sector, calling the valuation very moderate even at these levels. One figure is worth noting: Nvidia now owns about $99 billion worth of shares in its own customers —companies like Intel, SpaceX, and OpenAI—up from just $7 billion a year ago.
This is the same cyclical investment model that critics like Michael Bury point out, and it rises with the stock price. The second story is a reminder of what is happening on the other side of export controls . Federal prosecutors have arrested 38- year-old Greg Louis, owner of California-based Earth Made Computer, accusing him of smuggling more than $300 million worth of export- controlled Nvidia servers into China between 2023 and 2024.
The method, prosecutors said, was for Louis to route shipments through Malaysia and Singapore, using forged documents to conceal the chips' final destination, and allegedly received more than $176 million from two Malaysian shipping companies in less than a year. One order alone consisted of 27 servers equipped with Nvidia H100 GPUs, worth about $7.6 million.
He faces charges of conspiracy, smuggling and money laundering, which carry a potential sentence of decades in prison. Nvidia has explicitly stated on this subject that smuggling is a losing business from a legal, economic, and technical point of view. And this is not an isolated case. This follows charges brought earlier this year against a Supermicro co-founder for similarly diverting billions in Nvidia chips to China, as well as a separate case in Taiwan involving former Nvidia and Supermicro employees.
That's what connects them. Nvidia shares are hitting records in part because their cutting-edge chips are so valuable and so limited for export to China that legal demand in other countries is skyrocketing. It is this scarcity that makes smuggling profitable enough that people are willing to risk decades in prison.
The higher the cost of Nvidia chips, the greater the incentive for the black market. So today, Nvidia is approaching the $6 trillion mark, and federal prosecutors are knocking on the door in California over the very chips that are powering that success. Let me know what you think about it. Do such law enforcement measures really slow down the black market, or are they simply the costs of doing business on a scale like Nvidia's?
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