저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Anthropic 상장(IPO) 관련 영상이다. 결론: 화제가 된 80.7억 달러 손실은 대부분 전환사채 공정가치 변동에 따른 회계상 손실(약 720억 달러)이며, 실제 영업손실은 약 6.93억 달러, 조정 영업이익은 16억 달러 수준이다. 진짜 우려는 성장 둔화와 향후 10년간 5,180억 달러 이상의 클라우드·컴퓨팅 지출 약정이다. [회사 개요 및 실적] Anthropic은 나스닥에 'ANT' 티커로 상장을 준비 중이며 추수감사절 주간 데뷔가 거론된다. 올해 상반기 매출은 약 163억 달러로 전년 약 12억 달러 대비 약 14배 성장했다. 3분기 매출은 168억 달러로 전분기 대비 증가율이 둔화되었다(전년 대비 45%). [밸류에이션 전망] Dan Ives는 초기 수요가 형성되는 구간을 1.5~1.7조 달러로 봤고, 장기적으로는 2~3조 달러 기업이 될 수 있다고 언급했다. 1주 전 2조 달러 논의에서 1.5조 달러로 하향되었다는 보도가 있다. [투자 판단] Dan Ives 발언: 밸류에이션이 2조 달러면 매수자가 되기는 어렵지만, 1.5조 달러면 강한 수요가 예상되며 상장 시점에는 매수하겠다고 밝혔다. 다만 상장 후 락업 해제 이후 변동성이 클 것이라고 경고했다. [리스크] 투자설명서 약 80페이지가 리스크 요인에 할애되어 있으며, AI가 인류에 치명적·실존적 위험을 줄 수 있다는 경고가 포함되어 있다(통제 회피, 정보 은닉, 사람 조작 등). Dan Ives는 이 위험이 공상과학 같지만 현실적이라고 봤다. [안전성과 상장의 모순] 6주 전 Dario Amodei는 'Frontier를 길들여야 한다'는 글에서 AI 개발 속도 조절을 촉구했다. 이후 상장을 추진하는 점에 대해 Dan Ives는 이를 '군비 경쟁'으로 규정했다. 속도를 늦추면 Meta, OpenAI, 중국이 가속할 것이므로 수익화가 불가피하며, 안전장치를 두고 수익화하는 것이 핵심이라고 주장했다. [AI 시장 단계] AI 혁명은 전체의 약 15% 지점, 즉 '3회 중 3이닝'에 있으며 현재는 정점이나 거품이 아니라 수익화 단계의 다음 국면이라고 했다. [종합] 손실 우려는 회계 착시에 가깝고, 실제 관건은 성장 지속성과 5,000억 달러 이상의 지출 약정을 감당할 수 있는지다. 영상은 가격(밸류에이션)이 가장 중요한 변수라고 정리한다.
다듬은 글
Anthropic lost $80.7 billion in 6 months. It's like the entire economy of Alaska. Or , Dan, if you look at it on a regional scale, it's twice the size of Bahrain. Of course, Anthropic says most of this is non-cash accounting costs, but how can you justify a valuation of over a trillion dollars with numbers like that?
Look, I think it really comes down to growth. I mean, if you look at how investors are going to perceive this, what is the growth going to be over the next 2, 3, 4 years? Are there any extremely expensive developments taking place here? Without a doubt. And this, in the end , will become the main point of contention for investors.
But you're saying that creating a new economy for consumers and businesses around the world requires costs. And that's what we're seeing, and that's why it's so important not only to do what the IPOs are doing, but also to demonstrate revenue and growth in the coming years. This is where the moment of truth comes for Anthropic .
Well, another interesting thing , Dan, is that the valuation talk has also dropped from about 2 trillion to about 1.5 trillion in a week. How much do you think Anthropic is really worth? I think 1.5 to 1.7 trillion is probably the level at which the initial demand will be. I find this acceptable, as is the case with SpaceX.
There is also a lot of volatility that occurs after the stock lock-up period ends and during trading. And I think when we start to see all of this unfold, it's important how well they do the roadshow to explain the growth trajectory to investors . What does the order book look like? I think this is exactly what investors will rely on.
But it's also a longer-term view. Could this really become a two or three trillion company in the coming years? But I think initially this range probably corresponds to the general appetite and the unofficial forecasts that we see - this is what investors are thinking. Given everything you've seen so far, Dan, would you buy the stock in the IPO?
I think I know the answer. Well, listen, I guess at a valuation of two trillion, you're not necessarily going to be a buyer. If the valuation is 1.5 trillion, depending on how they ultimately price it, I think you'll see serious demand. And I think that's very important for the broader technology market , as we're seeing.
This is a stressful period, as we saw with CoreWeave and some concerns about raising debt. But the foundation, the heart and lungs of this—it all starts with Anthropic, and I would definitely buy their stock at launch. Of course. So, tell us about some of the risks that Anthropic has identified , because, Dan, you know , I've been reviewing the prospectus myself.
I've probably never seen anything like it before. The documents essentially contain warnings about things like catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. Have you ever seen such a risk factor for an IPO, and how should investors evaluate it? Yes, I mean, these are risks that seem almost like something out of a science fiction movie to some , right?
That is, if you look at them more closely. And I think that's what's going to make investors nervous . Just like we've seen over the last few months, given Dario's essay and the things they've talked about from a regulatory perspective. I think, Dan, to this question: what will be the safeguards around these risks?
For example, how are they going to control the models? Tell us not only about self-regulation, but also about your plans for interaction with the rest of the industry. Of course, we see huge opportunities, generational opportunities within this AI revolution. But the risks are real. You can't just downplay them and say it doesn't matter much.
This is not true. And I think it's going to be a balancing act not just for Anthropic, but for the entire industry and investors, because it all comes down to price. What price are you willing to pay, considering the opportunities, but also the risks? M-hm. And how are you going to resolve this contradiction?
Because, Dan, it seems like about 6 weeks ago Dario called on the industry to slow down . Now he is looking to go public. So, is it possible to be a safety- first company and a public company at the same time? It's also interesting to see Anthropic cautiously wording its revenue and profit projections, suggesting that profits may be secondary to a company that brings such immense benefits to humanity.
At least, that's how it was laid out in the prospectus. Do you agree with this? Yes, that's a great point. Because the reality is that this is an arms race, and they know they can talk about security, but if they take their foot off the gas pedal, look at Meta and Zuckerberg. They are not going to slow down.
Like Altman from OpenAI. And I think for them, I think it's a quagmire that they get into as they develop. But then you go back to how you talk about Dario's essay, and how we need to slow down. And now an IPO appears. I think that's where the problem lies: they can talk about trying to slow down, and they can talk about security, but the reality is that they realize: now is the time for them to finally monetize, and that's what they're basing themselves on.
And I think these are conflicting signals for investors. But that's also our view in the US: if they slow down, China will just keep accelerating. I think Anthropic is aware of the regulatory takeover—that's what they're trying to do here. It all comes down to monetization with certain safeguards. Dan, is this the peak of AI trading?
This is the third inning. This, you know, we're only 15% through this AI revolution. We are going to go through these moments where we have to grip the steering wheel. This is not a peak. This is not a "bubble." This is what I see as simply the next stage of the monetization phase of the AI revolution that is happening, but in my opinion, it is not the peak.
$80.7 billion. This is the amount that one AI company says it lost in just 6 months. And now this same company wants to go public with a valuation of over a trillion dollars. This company is Anthropic, the developer of Claude , and its IPO could be one of the largest in history. So in the next few minutes I'll break down what's actually in Anthropic's reporting.
I'll show you what this $ 80 billion loss really is . I'm going to show you a risk warning that sounds like it's from a science fiction movie . And I'll tell you what Dan Ives says he would do on his first day. But first, let me tell you why this loss number might not mean what you think. Here is the situation .
On Monday, Anthropic filed for an IPO. It plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, and is reportedly targeting a debut during the week of Thanksgiving. And the growth is crazy. In the first half of this year, Anthropic's revenue was about $16.3 billion . A year ago it was about 1.2 billion. This is about 14 times more in 1 year.
So how can you grow so fast and still lose $80 billion ? Okay, quick game. Of the $80.7 billion loss, how much do you think was actual money that flowed out of the company? Half? Most of it? All? Record your answer. Here is the answer. About $72 billion of this loss is an accounting transaction. Anthropic issued so-called convertible bonds.
These are loans that can later become shares. As Anthropic became more valuable, these bonds also increased in price. And according to accounting rules, this is considered a loss. So, the company didn't burn $72 billion. Its success simply worsened the appearance of the reporting. It's like your house has gone up in value and the bank has sent you a bill saying you lost money.
The actual operating loss was about $693 million. And on an adjusted basis, the company reports $1.6 billion in operating profit. It even received $3.9 billion in cash from operating activities. So, this scary headline? To a large extent, this is accounting. But wait, that doesn't mean everything is fine.
Because that's what really makes investors nervous. Just a week ago, there was talk of a valuation of two trillion dollars. Now, according to Reuters, investors are talking about 1.5 trillion. Why such a decline? Growth has slowed. Revenue for the third quarter increased by 45% to 16.8 billion. That's a huge amount, but it's slower than the previous quarter, when revenue nearly doubled.
And Anthropic has committed to spending over $518 billion over the next decade on cloud and computing. So the question is not whether Anthropic is growing, but whether it can grow fast enough to pay for all of this? Dan Ives said it simply: "It all comes down to growth in the next few years. That's where the test of strength lies." And how does he estimate the value of Anthropic ?
Dan says that 1.5–1.7 trillion is probably the level where initial demand will be. In the long term, he believes it could be worth two or three trillion, but not on day one. And would he buy it? At a valuation of two trillion, he says he would n't necessarily be a buyer. At 1.5 trillion, he expects high demand.
And he says he would definitely buy it at the start. And now the part of this reporting that really got people talking. I'll come back to Dan's final verdict in a moment, because you need to hear it first. According to Reuters, about 80 pages of Anthropic's prospectus are devoted to risk factors, and some of them sound unrealistic.
The report warns that AI could pose catastrophic or even existential risks to humanity. It's about AI that can resist being turned off, hide information, or manipulate people. Dan's reaction? These are risks that sound like something out of a science fiction movie . Have you ever seen a company warn investors that its product could be dangerous to humanity?
Dan says these risks can't simply be ignored. They are real, and the main question is what price you pay, considering both the opportunities and the risks. But wait , it gets even more interesting. Just six weeks ago, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay titled "We Must Tame the Frontier." He called on the AI industry to slow down the pace of improving artificial intelligence models.
Sam Altman of OpenAI said he agreed. Elon Musk wrote: "Dario is right." Now Anthropic is rushing to go public. So is it possible to be a safety-first company and a public company at the same time? Dan's opinion is straightforward. He says it's an " arms race." In his opinion, if Anthropic takes its foot off the gas pedal, its competitors won't slow down.
And if the US slows down, China will continue to accelerate. Therefore, in his view, this is the moment when Anthropic should monetize its success. He says it all comes down to making money with certain safeguards. So, is this the peak of AI trading? Dan says no. He says we're only in the third inning, about 15% of the way through the AI revolution.
He calls it a moment of tense anticipation, not a peak or a bubble. So, let's summarize. What are these $80 billion losses? These are mostly accounting expenses, not real cash outflows. What is the real problem ? Slowing growth and over $500 billion in future spending commitments. What is Dan's verdict?
At a valuation of $1.5 trillion, he would buy. At 2 trillion, not necessarily. What about that sci- fi risk warning? It is real and spelled out in black and white in the reports. sentence. The scariest number in this IPO is not the losses , but the price you pay to own the shares. If this helped you understand the Anthropic IPO, click subscribe.
I will review the situation again on the day the auction begins. And next time I'll show you what happened to SpaceX after their record-breaking IPO and what it could mean for Anthropic.
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