🔴 Why I'm Buying Gold Over Bitcoin To PROTECT My Wealth in 2025 - Ray Dalio

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Dalio는 부채, 내부 정치질서, 세계질서 변화, 자연재해, 기술의 5대 힘이 맞물려 향후 3~5년 세계가 크게 달라진다고 본다. 미국은 보호무역·리쇼어링으로 전환 중이며 중국과의 전쟁 가능성에 대비가 필요하다. 미국채는 공급 과잉과 통화 증발 위험으로 비중을 낮추고 싶다고 밝혔다. 포트폴리오는 상관관계가 낮은 15개 수익원을 위험 기준으로 배분하는 원칙을 따른다. 금을 암호화폐보다 선호하며, 코인은 프라이버시·과세 측면에서 우려가 있다. AI는 투자 및 산업 전반에서 큰 기회라고 평가했다.

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01. uh you're dealing with gold and then you're dealing with the new version which is crypto okay so you have to think about that I prefer gold okay but that doesn't mean I'm I'm into diversification and so um the reason I pref prefer well the reason I'm concerned about um crypto is first of all privacy the government knows exactly what you've got where it is and it's also an effective way of taxing it uh first of all I through my life whenever I was surprised I realized and often it was because of the things never happen in my lifetime but happened many times in history so I think we're in that kind of an environment the changing world order the change the changes we have to understand the changes so for that reason I studied these changes going back for a long time uh there are five major forces the first is the debt money market economy Force Credit produces buying power that buying power makes things go up but it also produces debt and there's a cycle and we experience those Cycles that's number one number two is the internal uh political and social order the left the right capitalism socialism and so on and that was where the election is and we're going to turn to that in a second number three is the great world world order the change in the world order we had a system coming out of 1945 in which the United States was the dominant power the dollar is the dominant currency they create a set of rules how's the system going to work the United Nations the IMF the World Trade Organization that's all changing in important ways that has a big effect the great Powers conflict what's going on with China Russia it has a bearing on everything that we're doing number four is through history acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics have killed more people than Wars and toppled more orders so they cannot be ignored and I don't think at this time can be ignored because of the fact that there's global warming there's other things going on and number five is technology man's inventiveness of new technologies that makes productivity rise over a period of time and there's nothing that's going to be more important than these new technologies so we're going through a period of those five factors I think creating almost a Time Warp and the world I think is going to be very different uh in the next three to five years as a result of those they're interrelated so you can't talk about one without understanding that inter relationship to me so now we go back to the election okay the real question on that election going into that election is would we have domestic order how would that take place if you had let's say a close election particularly a close most loss by Donald Trump then uh there was a question would you have an orderly transition of power okay risky situation we have crossed that we are past that we have a mandate okay they the president has a mandate the um Senate the um house um and U now the Supreme Court and so on so there's something new going on what is that new what does that new thing look like um two things um if I was to take it domestically it's reform I'll talk about that in a second internationally it's preparing for the war or the possibility of war with China most importantly and with other countries okay now let's go into that for a second okay that Reformation that Reformation is um well it's a Reformation of government and it's a Reformation of the whole economy it's going to be like um Donald Trump in the administration is going to be like a corporate office it's a capitalist reformation and it has some of those fundamental values that's going down to the nitty-gritty okay what does that mean for technology like we're going to have for uh 20% of our uh key chips have got to be produced in the United States by 2030 okay in order to do that how do you do that that's connected to an energy plan that's connected okay so there are a number of initiatives here there's um an immigration there's tariffs there's you know many things that are initiative internationally it's changed everything okay because we've come from a world in 1945 the New World Order the world ended in terms of that and we had a system multilateral organizations and all this now we have a um we don't have that system we have a an America First system and you have a China first system and so on so there are no rules of the game that is a power thing so we're now going it's tougher to have allies you're going to have deals but you're not going to have allies and so different part of the world we're paying attention now a lot to the United States of course the United States is important and we're Americans in here but if you really want to understand the world you have to understand how it's changing in a broader sense what does it mean in India what is what is the a countries going to be like what is the Middle East like the gulf countries and so on that world is changing in a way that we shouldn't so singularly look at through an American lens geopolitically you're in one of three categories you're on the American Alli side you're on the Chinese and other side or you're neutral you don't want to get involved geopolitically so we're going to have for example two totally different technology systems that are going to develop an American version a Chinese version and so on but in terms of globalization I'm finding out like we're more globalized than in almost anything like everybody's together same group of people doing deals okay they come from all different countries never before in my life was it like this so you can find um Saudis and Indonesians and singaporeans and every body they're all in the same group there's a group and they're all doing deals you know my Mantra of investing is 15 good uncorrelated return streams risk balanced okay so I want to start there right okay because I know that if I can pick good Investments um and they're uncorrelated investment I won't lower my return because I'll have the average of those returns but I will lower my Risk by up to 80% so my Mantra is you know uh what I don't know what the risks are always out there so that's when I when you first ask me a question I think in that way you have to have to uh and risk balance them it's not necessarily dollar balance sure and it's not just these it's this combination this basket the all weather portfolio that you have are well known for so now if I step back from that and I think about okay the world now so that's almost like 7 and a half% in things that are uncorrelated there are some general themes okay my general theme would be first of all um that we have a debt issue okay and when I take that debt issue most fundamental to of all markets and the underpinning of every Market is the treasury market it affects everything so in answer your question you have to start with the treasury market and there's a supply demand issue there in terms of this and I've seen this before one man's debts are another man's assets when we talk about currency as a storeold of wealth we're really talking is debt a storeold of wealth so when I look at that issue I think we have a big issue that's there it's a big risk so if as I as I start to make tactical deviations from well let's say what is a totally R balanced assuming I don't know uh exactly what's going to happen my biggest most important deviation is I don't want to hold much debt as an asset and I think the Japanese example is such a good example it steals money quietly and the way it does that is people make the mistake of paying too much attention to their nominal returns rather than their real returns how inflation eats away at that so and when I look at Japan what they did on average over the last 15 years or so is they have a 3% lower interest rate than we had in the United United States and they depreciated the currency by about 4% a year so you're losing 7% a year in the value it's depreciated holders of those bonds because of the monetization and all of that I think that there's a significant risk that that will happen to us so when I think about that balance I think okay uh now I don't want to concentrate any one bet on anything but as I'm thinking about the bet my biggest bet my biggest concern is that concern if if you had normal times and you say well what is the inflation rate and then give me what the bond rate should be I would sort of say inflation currently is in the 2 and a half 3% vicinity you should have a 2% real rate so you come out in the fiveish vicinity without the supply demand consideration for those Reasons I'm concerned about rates and I think people also pay a lot of attention to is the Fed easing and they think ah rates will go down because of that exct I've watched them go in two different directions for good reasons okay so that's I look at the treasury market the traditional buyers have been burnt in it and own too much in other words be about onethird of all the debt is owned by foreigners and they're owning it and it's big parts of their portfolio they've lost money in it and then we've got not only the supply that is coming a supply demand so do they want to increase their market share I don't think so in terms of the share of their portfolio and then you put on that um that's just the new Supply demand the real issue even beyond that new Supply in Dem band is if people think that that's not a good investment you will sell you will get selling of existing debt and if you sell existing debt and all of that debt you can have a real disaster in the treasury market and so that would force the Central Bank in what does the Central Bank do they buy the debt they print the money and so on and so that scenario exists as a realistic worry so when I look at the markets I I say 15 good uncorrelated but what would I want to have a tactical deviation from I'm not really excited about the debt okay then when I look at equities I think I have to look at the specific equities uh the idea of talking about Equity markets as a whole is an obsolete idea because they're so different and you know we're now in an era of disruption so what disruption means is bad for one good for another and so on and how that's going to change um of course the you know the hyperscalers and so on done well I believe that really it's the most inv greatest advantages are going to be on those who use it well right and and we're not paying enough attention to that we're thinking okay do they make the chips do they make that okay but the users because they're in a war that's going to be a very expensive of War it's a war that's so important to them that they don't there's not a question of whether there return on investment what what it means is it's more important than profits it's more important than money okay which will which country the country that has the best technology not only will have the best economics but they're going to have the best military the most so these things are a war where profits can be a secondary consideration but those that are benefiting from the techn ology and making Transformations like I think in investing like I'm super excited because all of the times that I my investing was I would always write down my principles my decision rules convert them into algorithms and I used expert systems to be able to build systems that would make decisions computerized systems I believe in that now I'm very excited about what AI does in being able to do that so I think that and that's just only one area but it exists in healthcare exists in so many different areas so finding those that are the beneficiaries versus those that are the uh detractors the ones who are losing but also uh getting away from really the super scalers and focusing on that I think is important so when I'm looking around the world for my 15 good uncorrelated return streams these are the things that I think about well I have a small percentage of my portfolio in crypto uh because what we're really do thinking about is we have to think about what is the alternative money because a money a currency is a medium of exchange there will always be a medium exchange but it's a stor hold of wealth and so when you're talking about the bonds the debt okay we have to think about an alternative money and when we look at the United States and we look at other Count's currencies they're all having problems okay so the same problems we're talking about in the United States are the same types of problems Europe has same types of issues that China has am I going to own their debt safely and so on and the same types of problem Japan has so you tend to see them go up and down together so you have to think about money money is can I move it around it's not like real estate that's knocked down and you know nailed down and then you also have it to taxes so uh you're dealing with gold and then you're dealing with the new version which is crypto okay so you have to think about that I prefer gold okay but that doesn't mean I'm I'm into diversification and so um the reason I pref prefer well the reason I'm concerned about um crypto is first of all privacy the government knows exactly what You' got where it is and it's also an effective way of taxing it because I was with Central Bankers when interest rates hit zero and a bunch of central bankers and we're U figuring out U how negative can you make interest rates the thing that limited the negative amount of interest rates was the paper and and so the question was the answer to the question was we can for a very short period of time have negative -400 basis points because of the fact that there's not enough uh storage space for all the paper but okay now if you don't have the paper and you have it digitally you can have as negative it's just the same as taxes right so when I'm looking at that I think okay that is not exempt from crypto okay that's and then the reliability of crypto in terms of let's say saying does it correlate with inflation does it correlate with those things no it doesn't really not well it's still largely a speculative vehicle so for those and and number four is also it's not likely to be a reserve for a currency okay it won't work whereas now as countries need the what is the reserve gold is still uh it's the third largest reserve currency the US dollar the Euro gold and then Japanese Yen so I prefer gold but anyway whatever vehicle we're talking about I think we're saying uh I'm saying you have to think about debt as being maybe you don't want one man's debts or another man's assets you don't you may not want the bonds you do have to think of an alternative currency that's going to also allow your buying power and a currency is something that can go from one country to another it's you know and so there aren't many