저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 증시가 2008년 이후 큰 위기 없이 장기 상승해 Rogers는 미국 주식을 전량 매도하고 현금(달러) 보유. 중앙은행의 대규모 유동성 공급과 모두가 낙관하는 분위기를 경계. 금과 은은 보유 중이나 추가 매수는 보류, 농산물·실물자산(밀, 면화, 옥수수)이 주식 대안으로 낫다고 언급. 공매도 전환은 고민 중이나 아직 미실행. 투자자 스스로 판단할 것을 강조.
다듬은 글
Well, Steve, this time it's who knows, but it does seem different because at the moment in the US, we have the longest period of stock market prosperity without a big problem. I mean, things have been going great since 2008. That's the longest in American history. Maybe it's going to go on forever. Washington says, "Don't worry.
Everything's okay." We know it's different now. [clears throat and cough] I've been around long enough to know that when everybody thinks it's great, I should somebody should ask questions. So, I'm worried. I have sold all of my US stocks. Who knows? Well, I first used ad, I have not started selling short.
So, I have a lot of cash, but I have not sold short yet. Uh I guess if the questions I should ask are, "What should I do, Steve? Here I am." Yeah. You're supposed you know more than we do. You tell me. Tell me about that. Well, I guess I should repeat. This is the longest in American history without a big problem in the Yeah.
markets or the economy. So, I mean, Mr. Trump will tell you that "Don't worry. Everything is fine now. Uh we've figured it all out." I hope that's true, Steve. I've never seen it happen before in the US in US investing, but maybe it is. Maybe things are different now. I doubt it, but I've been wrong before.
Jim, what are you seeing that has you maybe suspicious that things aren't all they seem? Uh is Well, the main thing is what I just said. The market's been going up without a gigantic problem for for since 2008, 2009. Yeah. That's never happened before, Steve. Maybe it's going to go up forever. Maybe.
All I know is it never has. And you ask me what's That's what I'm asking. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm questioning. Well, nothing that big can be completely separate from the stock market. You know, when the everything that happens in the world affects the investing world. That's one of the things that I made me so fascinated with investing.
Everything everything had an effect. I learned that and problem is you have to figure out what and what effect. I wish it were easy. You know, I guess we can watch your show to find out, but no, it's very exciting. It's wonderful. But, the US is the markets have been not had a bad period a seriously bad period for many years.
That's never happened before. Now, Washington says, "Don't worry. It's different now." That makes me worry even more. Well, I have a lot of US dollar cash. It's all in US dollars. And the reason for that is because most people in the world think that the US dollar is a safe haven. It's not, but people think it is.
And when people think the US dollar is a safe haven, that's where I want to be if things go bad. So, you're saying that the US dollar is a good safe haven right now? I mean, can can you expand on most people in the world think the US dollar is a safe haven. And therefore, it is a safe haven because the investing world thinks it's a safe haven.
I know it's not, but it doesn't matter what I think. I there are a lot more people in the world than me. And if the world thinks the US dollar is a safe haven, I'm going to invest it I have my investments in US dollars. So, this is the Jim Rogers who has been a big proponent on on gold and has screamed about the amount of US about global sovereign debt uh and uh the instability of fiat currency uh and you I hear you saying that because the world has faith in the US dollar, that is not a bad position at this point.
Can you Am I missing something here? Can you help me connect the dots? Well, all I'm saying is for me, when I look out the window, I see that everybody has confidence in the US dollar. It may may most people have confidence in the US dollar at the moment. I don't see another place at the moment besides the US dollar.
So, what do I know? I'm a simple person following the crowd. Wait, if you have a different answer, please don't announce it on the air. Send me a private email. So, I can do something. So, the US dollar you're saying you like not because you believe in fiat currency, but because everyone else seems to believe in it.
Uh that gives you leverage Yeah. I didn't say I like. I said I'm there You're there. because of what I think is happening in the world. And I do not see an alternative at the moment. Jim, can you expand a little bit more what that means? What do you think is happening in the world? Well, central banks all over the world have printed a huge amount of money in the past few weeks, months.
And it's got to go somewhere. And it's going into financial markets. And I mean, if you look out the window, nearly every central bank in the world has been joining in. Everybody's having a great time. Most people are not worried about anything. I mean, this doesn't happen often in history, [clears throat]
but it seems to be happening now. And things are great. Look out the window. You'll see things are great. Jim Rogers says that the uh the things are great. It can't help but wonder uh if someone is going to misunderstand uh the the humor, the subtleties behind this. If you can expand, Jim, just kind of what you see has you possibly worried here.
I didn't say things are great. I said that the world thinks Yeah. things are great. And that the world is satisfied and it's not too doesn't seem worried about anything. But, I've been around long enough to know that when everybody's printing money, [clears throat] you should ask some questions. And the some of the questions you ask are, "How long can this last?
Can this go on forever?" Now, the central banks say, "Don't worry. Yes, we can take care of it." And so far, they have. But, I have think I know enough to know that this eventually comes to an end. And when it comes to an end, which you have a time when everybody's happy, if that changes, it means many people become unhappy.
And if many people become unhappy, you might become unhappy, too. Oh. I wish I knew the answer to that. I'd be rich. I gosh. That's Who am I talking to here? all have. That's the problem we all have every day. No. I know that tide will turn or at least it always has. I don't know what will trigger it.
Maybe some foolish action of a government capital. Who knows? I don't know. But, I do know that the mood will change. The tide will change. And things will get very bad because things are very good right now everywhere. And history shows it's impossible for things to be good everywhere forever. That changes.
That's not the way human beings work. We're all human beings. Jim, you've spoken highly about commodities for quite some time. Where are we on the commodity supercycle? And do you Are you still long-term bullish here? Well, I own gold. I own silver. Uh yes. I have not sold any. Um they're both going through the roof at the moment, which is nice, but would I rush out and buy a lot of gold right now?
No. I'm not selling, but I mean, gold and silver are making all-time highs. I repeat, all-time highs. Never in the history of the world have gold and silver been so expensive, so successful. Maybe it'll go on forever. I'm not selling, but I'm not buying more yet. It's an extremely good question. But if you go back through Adam, any market anywhere in the world, there are times when everybody starts thinking the same way and the markets react accordingly.
And at the moment, most people in the world think that things are great. And they think that the US dollar, the US government is fine, and there are no problems. I will just repeat. Usually history shows that when everybody is thinking the same way, it's a time to ask questions and to get worried. Jim, how do you What do you recommend listeners do at this time where things are great?
Do I mean, it's Is it an opportunity to be wary and positioning cash? Is it to stockpiling gold? I hear you saying that you're not selling gold currently personally yourself. Uh, you know, things don't make sense to me where debt is an all-time high, printing continues, gold is an all-time high, and everybody's happy.
It gets me worried. So, do you Do you still believe in agriculture? What What do you think that investors should be doing right now? Well, I do own gold and silver. Uh, agriculture, I mean, hard assets or real assets, call them what you will, probably a better place to be. They often have been when stock markets have problems.
So, yes, I would suggest that people learn, if they don't know, about gold and silver or about agriculture, wheat, cotton, things like that, corn. Have people learn a little bit. Because maybe it's a time, instead of owning Microsoft, it's a time to own wheat. Everybody, but Steve, I want to repeat again and again.
Everybody has to make their own decision. They should not listen to me or anybody else. They do their own research and figure out what to do. Jim, many people have looked up to you and consider you someone who's gotten them started in you know, the natural resource space, the guy who started it all, the godfather sort of will.
Uh, so what advice would you give someone like who is coming to you, uh, maybe a young investor, you know, how has your approach to investing evolved over the years? Would you tell the young investor anything different today than you would have had in the past? Well, at the time when I was was early in the business, I was making a fortune when percentage wise when everybody around me was going broke.
I thought this was easy. I thought I was going to be Bernard Baruch. Needless to say, within a few weeks, the market wiped me out cuz I was so smart, so knowledgeable, so cocky. Uh, and I guess the first thing that taught me was be very careful. Be extremely careful because the market usually knows more than I do, and I should be asking questions whatever I'm doing, especially when everybody is thinking the same way.
When everybody's pessimistic or optimistic or whatever, I should be asking deep questions. What to do with your money. What I've The main question I'm asking myself right now is, should I start selling short stocks? I am not short right now, but my main question is, is it time to start selling short?
And if so, what should I short? If you know the answer, please do not announce it on the air. Send me an email. That's awesome.
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