저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 경기는 롤링 리세션 중이나 관세·세제·규제 확실성 증가로 6~9개월 내 예상보다 강한 회복 전망. 주택가격 하락으로 인플레이션 둔화 예상, 생산성·로보틱스·AI·블록체인 등 디플레이션 기술 강조. 비트코인 5년 내 100만 달러 이상 강세 시나리오 유지(기본 70~75만, 강세 150만 달러). 이더리움·솔라나 등 기관 채택 확대 및 온체인 분석 기반 정보 제공 계획.
다듬은 글
prices in in in many areas not responding to tariff increases and seeing that well wait a minute maybe the surprise here in the next 6 months is going to be much lower inflation thanks to certainty now more certainty about tariffs tax policy government spending and regulation or deregulation that we're getting ready to move from this rolling recession into a much stronger thanex expected recovery in the next I'll say 6 to9 months it will become obvious I think we can safely say that our bull pace is well over a million well over a million dollars in 5 years
wood has long maintained that the US economy has been in a rolling recession a slow motion contraction in which sectors like housing and autos deteriorate progressively under the weight of aggressive rate hikes. Last year, Wood highlighted that housing is down by as much as 35%, creating what she calls a recession-like impact on key economic volumes.
She sees further downside ahea. I think it was interesting in the Fed vote today, there were two dissents and we have not had two dissents since 1993 and I remember those cuz I was in the business back then as well. And I think that's very important symbolically because Chairman Powell has wanted unanimity.
And so now we've had a a break. And part of it is because Chairman Pal's term is up in May of next year. And maybe uh the two governors dissenting want a shot at that position. You never know. You never know. But maybe it is because the two governors, and I haven't gone through all of the the the notes yet, the two governors are seeing evidence of housing relapsing here and and and prices in in in many areas not responding to tariff increases and seeing that, well, wait a minute, maybe the surprise here in the next 6 months is going to be much lower inflation and we've had a few employment reports that they have something for everyone.
You know, some strong, some strength, some weakness. But I think what's beginning to concern a lot of people is that the unemployment rate for new college graduates is going up. And that's because entry-level positions are being subsumed in many cases by automation, especially AI. And so I I think they're looking at this as a potential concern out there.
We have been saying for quite some time that the economies has been in a rolling recession when the Fed jacked rates up 20 I think it's 22fold in little more than a year's time one sector after another began to give way starting with housing housing by many measures is down 35% still from the peak and we're seeing we're seeing some metrics take another step function down.
So I think that has some people concerned. I think the housing inflation numbers uh are going to come down. They're already the monthly numbers that we get from various sources are showing declines year-over-year. They're not declining uh except for maybe median existing home sales. But we do think that they that one of the solutions to the affordability crisis if if sellers really want their homes to move, they're going to cut their prices.
And because that is if interest rates don't come down and if they do cut prices, then the big surprise in the latter part of this year is how low inflation is going to go. uh and that there's a big lag between the time home prices fall and they get into the statistics a and and leave the statistics as well.
So this is going to be with us for quite some time. So I think we've been saying we believe that thanks to certainty now more certainty about tariffs, tax policy, government spending and regulation or deregulation that we're getting ready to move from this rolling recession into a much stronger than expected recovery in the next I'll say 6 to9 months.
it will become obvious with productivity one of the biggest surprises. It's already strong given uh the slow growth rates in the economy. I think year-over-year it's still up above 2%. But we think it's going much higher thanks to all of the technologies around which we have centered our research. So robotics, energy storage, AI very importantly, blockchain technology obviously important here and uh what we call multiomic sequencing in the life science space.
All of those innovations are incredibly deflationary and the best example probably is AI. AI training costs are dropping 75% per year. We I just learned from one of the founders of of Tether, Pao, that they had no idea that Tether would become an important source of dollar exposure to emerging markets until COVID when when the children of of in families in emerging markets would go to their parents and say, "You you you don't have to go into the black market today to buy dollars.
We can do this on the internet. And that's how it really spread, which is fascinating, isn't it? We thought Bitcoin would serve that role because we didn't know about stable coins. And even even very recently, I think we're we're becoming very surprised at how quickly the uptake of stable coins is. So, if we had to modify anything in that $ 1.5 million forecast, you'd probably see the and you can see on a table in big ideas 2025 how we build up the bold case.
We'd probably take a little bit from the emerging market part of the of of that stack, but I I think the much bigger force right now is it's the gateway into digital assets for institutional. It's a new asset class that and and the really substitute for gold uh as a store of value, another use case.
Those are the two biggest and and those we have not changed at all our opinion on. So we we I think we can safely say that our bull case is well over a million well over a million dollars in 5 years. On the crypto front, Wood goes allin. She maintains her bull case that Bitcoin could end up well over $1 million in 5 years, if not longer, and that it has become a digital gold and gateway asset for institutional investors.
Her base case ranges around 700K dial 750K by 2030 while the bull case is pegged at $1.5 million. That makes her current forecast comfortably above $1 million. She anticipates institutional adoption to accelerate through Bitcoin, Ether, and until recently Salana with layer 2 networks following suit.
We are watching our clients and guiding them carefully into the ecosystem. Bitcoin, Ether, we do have private funds which are had a very heavy waiting in Solana relative to ETH until recently. And you know, we made a a very good move at a a a good time as as Ether started to outpace Solana. So those are the big three for us.
And you know, we're watching layer twos of course as well. And I think you'll see us as we're trying to educate our primary client base go more deeply into you know the big three talking um talking in terms that financial analysts and investors will understand you know looking at looking at returns relative to risk calculating the sharp ratio the sortino ratio and so forth.
So I think that's what we're really doing right now in terms of e from an education point of view. Uh that paper is in process and uh the other thing we're going to do like we have done with Bitcoin. So we put out uh something called Bitcoin monthly. It's probably going to be Bitcoin by monthly and we're then we're we're going to layer into the alternative months Ether Salana and then the longer tail.
So and and what this does is uh analyze onchain anal or look at and evaluate onchain uh analytics as again we educate our investor base about the kinds of signaling properties that these protocols have that we don't have in equities or bonds because the transparency just isn't there the way it is on in blockchain techn technology.
So we'll do e ETH Salana and others as time goes on um uh and as as they begin to show themselves as interesting especially to institutional investors. Next generation internet includes both crypto and uh AI. So that agentic that agentic AI uh theme the the two in the top 10 no actually are three in the top 10 of certainly the F and K Coinbase Circle and Robin Hood.
Robin Hood is not a pure play, but as we've watched and in the I'm gonna say about three years ago, we were we our our questioning when we had our quarterly calls with Robin Hood was all around crypto. Your client base wants it. Where are you? Where are you? Are you building out your infrastructure?
And at a point we pulled away because they pulled away. Uh and of course now they're at full throttle. If you saw their analyst day uh and the debut of some of their their crypto offerings, I think uh they they're they're playing to win big. So no micro strategy in that top three. Well, no, because uh as I said before with micro strategy, yes, that is a bit a bet on Bitcoin.
That's the obviously the the the biggest asset in the space. We feel certainly that Coinbase is an import is is powered importantly by Bitcoin because where Bitcoin goes others follow. So we felt that we had a good broad-based holding there and as I said uh bit uh Bitmine Immersions is it's is not in the top 10 but we do think it's important now that Ether is showing up as an institutional preference that it's important for us to be there.
Wood strategy involves robust investor education using analytics like Sharp and Sortino ratios to compare digital assets to equity and bond expectations. She's planning periodic reports like a revamped Bitcoin by monthly followed by coverage of Ether, Salana, and other altcoins aimed primarily at institutional audiences.
She sees the transparency and signaling properties of onchain data as a competitive advantage over traditional financial instruments.
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