“Everyone Is WRONG About What Is Coming..." | Chamath Palihapitiya On How To Invest In This Market

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Chamath는 2008년 이후 중앙은행 개입으로 개별 종목 선별보다 시장 베타(지수)가 수익을 주도해 왔으며, 자신이 최근 성과도 기술주 베타 덕이라고 인정한다. 중앙은행이 방관자로 물러나면 개별 종목 선별과 액티브 운용이 유리해질 수 있다고 보며, 장기적으로는 집중된 시장 베타 지수 펀드가 우위일 것이라고 말한다. 그는 최근 두 주간 상장 주식 매매를 시작해 수백만 달러를 굴리며 10~20년 보유 목표로 가치투자를 실험 중이라고 밝힌다. 비상장 SaaS 시장에서는 현재 ARR의 20~30배 수준에서 거래가 이뤄지고 있으며, 성장률이 높은 기업은 공개 SaaS 지수(약 6배)보다 높은 밸류에이션이 정당하다고 본다. 공개 시장 기업들은 2008년 이후 가장 많은 현금을 보유하고 있어 매수 유인이 낮고, 이것이 비상장 딜 속도 둔화로 이어지고 있다고 진단한다. 벤처 투자자들은 공개 주식이 60~70% 하락한 상황에서도 과거 상장 주식을 배분(distribution)하고 세컨더리에서 지분을 정리해 LP 자금을 회수한 점을 성과로 강조한다. 전반적으로 기술주 강세는 실력보다 운과 중앙은행 유동성의 수혜라는 점을 인정하는 것이 핵심 메시지다.

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01. i've been thinking a lot about this i think that i have disproportionately benefited from being at the right place at the right time backed by enormous amounts of central bank money and so i think we all have been i think it is very difficult to be a public market individual stock picker in a world where the central banks are constantly meddling because when they do the best thing that you can do is belong the market beta and the more concentrated you are the better returns you would have delivered since 2008 when the central bank started to get very aggressively involved when individual stock pickers reigned the the universe was when central banks were largely on the sidelines and so there was all kinds of dispersion right dispersion meaning good outcomes bad outcomes lots of alpha right meaning your performance was independent of the market but since 2008 it's largely been beta that's driven the market and the folks that have done exceedingly well were those in tech because we delivered the best beta and every time we confuse alpha and beta we get over our ski tips and there's always some big out you know blow up so i think my my general takeaway is that uh if the central banks stay on the sidelines individual stock picking rains and active management can win if they continue to be involved and do quantitative easing and all of this other stuff index funds that are long concentrated market beta will always outperform in the long run i was watching warren buffett answer some questions and one of the questions and this goes to the law of big numbers like blackrock he was saying listen the reason i did better earlier in my career than later in my career on a percentage basis is because i was placing i had a smaller amount of capital and i was placing it on smaller bets uh smaller ideas and themes and then as i had a bigger chip sack i had to find bigger ideas to put more money to work and therefore more people were looking at those and so those assets were not undervalued and so i found that very like um uh insightful in terms of when you participate in the market if you're trying to pick between very large bats like kotu and tpg and tiger were doing in the growth space acts like now everybody knows that these company everybody knows stripes a winner everybody knew airbnb and uber were winners you know in the late stage of the private everybody knew facebook was a winner in the stage prime market if you're battling that out you know yuri milner is going to come over the top and pay 2 billion more than you or masi yoshi-san is going to pay 5 or 10 billion more than you where is the alpha there you know where where is the gain the alpha's in the fees okay there you go and so they were playing a different game and i that's you know i started trading this past two weeks because i've never traded public stocks and i wanted to add it as a skill set so i put a couple million bucks into an account and i'm just trying to actively figure out how does value work there and you know i'm just starting to make trades that i want to hold for 10 or 20 years and we'll see if i can beat the market that's the other thing is what do you want to spend your life doing if the index if you can put money in a passive index and not do any work well you know that's attractive as well so saks what do you think in terms of active management you know in these public markets and the size of the bets that have to be like i said i think it's very hard to beat the market consistently i think it's a very tough profession i'm i'm sure there are people who can do it but i don't know if it's easy to predict who those people are so look i you know i think it's something that can be done but i just think it's a tough tough game i mean what we do as private investors is a little different right because not everybody is in a position to buy shares right yes you're not available to you don't even know the company access is limited and information is limited and in exchange for that sort of preferential access that we get we actually have to do work so when you're up when yeah when you're a public investor in a company disney or whatever you don't do any work you're not involved at all we do a lot of work for the companies and that's why they choose us and so it's not you know it's you're not competing against the whole world i think the public markets are just so competitive are you tempted though looking at these prices and because i was looking at a company that was trading at 50 times revenue last year they're racing again they double their revenue so now they're at 20 25 times revenue they're raising at last year's valuation and then i looked at the public market comps and they're trading at six times so now i'm like wait a second and obviously look at the growth rate you got to look at the growth rate was the growth rate in this example was three times fat greater than the public market comp so how would you assess that then well what we're seeing right now is that pretty good sas companies that are growing you know maybe on a trailing basis they grew 3x and you know prospectively they're growing call it two and a half x um they're trading right now not trading but basically deals are getting done at 20 times arr twenty which are this year's current run rate yeah the current are yeah you're not getting that like bonus like here's your projected next year we're going to give it based on that this is current no no current arr is about 20 22 23 times arr um from what last year 100.

02. it was like 100 times was the rule of thumb so now there are some where there are you know deals are getting done in the high 20s i'd say or even 30 if they're if you believe that by the end of the year it'll be more like 20. so but i i think the new levels are landing at 20 20 something times are now why does that make sense relative to the public sas companies well like you said the sas index is trading at roughly six times but that's only twenty percent average growth right and so you know if you're growing ten times the growth right right and the high growth sas companies are trading it like seven times um that's for like a forty percent grower we've talked about this before so listen if you're tripling year over year and you pay 20 times that'll be a seven times next year but if you're growing two two and a half three x next year that's way faster so yeah i think there's actually an arbitrage there i mean this is why we like doing private sas investing right now if you're really trying to generate alpha you have to have a sense of what's actually happening in the world right now if you're just trying to deliver the market beta and run an index then yeah you're right you should ignore this idea that there could be more price adjustments but if you look at the public markets which is again the ultimate terminal buyer they have more cash than they ever had since 2008 which means that there is no reason to buy you're talking about private companies it all ultimately ends up in the public markets and so if the public markets are saying there is no reason to buy this stuff it trickles down so then the crossover investor who has a public private business says you know what on the public side i'm completely de-risked and in cash and so on the private side i'll just be a little bit more circumspect and wait as david said i'll just wait six months and put even more money in later i'll actually have a better irr and i'll make the same profit dollars so then the series b and c firm who used to feed those deals to the crossover folks are like oh well if you're waiting i don't want to have to write a check to support these folks my whole point was to have you mark up the deal so i could raise a new fund they slow down and then that goes back to the series a person who's like well wait a minute you know the reason i paid at 50 pre was because i thought you'd step in and buy it at 100.

03. and then they slow down so all i'm saying is i think that we are at the point of the cycle where constipation is setting it and this is why you're seeing such a downtick in deal velocity and dollars put to work i'll say it even more if you're if you're a venture investor who took a longitudinal view on public market stocks and then have now seen 60 to 70 percent write downs of those same stocks that you could have distributed you should still have something to answer to that makes no sense it turns out that the skill of private market investing and the skill of public market investing are different even if all you're doing is delivering the market beta it's still different we have a discussion remember i was saying should i distribute the shares of robin hood should i hold them what should i be doing we told you to distribute and i distributed i distributed everything you know and uh and in terms of secondary i feel pretty you feel like a genius now because your lp should say thank you jason no some of them are saying that what i feel smart about i'll be honest is uh we had i think let's just say i'm making a number four out of five times we were offered the opportunity to trim our positions in secondary with our winners uh from people who wanted to buy secondary shares i did it probably four out of five times and i'm just kicking myself i didn't do it the fifth or i didn't ask if they would take more because my god we were able to clear some positions at very high valuations that are now lower than that in the private markets and send cash to our lps and get our you know get over our hurdles and our first two funds which you know i feel smart about i think that you should feel so so good about that that is that is really hard what you did and i think people underestimate how hard it is it is really hard to actually return more money than you have taken in and and by the way it was hard in the last 10 years where we've had basically a massive up market and the four of us frankly benefited from the extraordinary luck of being in tech