저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 탄소세는 사실상 무의미해졌고 IRA 보조금과 시장 경쟁이 기후 대응의 주축이 되며, 자산 가격 직접 예측 발언은 거의 없다. 세금 집행 부분: 대형 자산가의 탈세가 실제로 만연해 있다기보다 K-1 등 구조적 문제(carried interest, 주 법상 신탁)가 핵심이라고 주장. 세금 시스템 자동화 부분: 세금 신고를 전수 검토하는 AI 시스템 구축 비용은 최대 약 50억 달러 수준이라고 가정하며, 그만큼 복잡한 소프트웨어가 된다고 언급. 탄소세 부분: 탄소세 아이디어는 사라졌다고 보며, IRA가 보조금으로 화석연료 프로젝트를 시장 경쟁선상에 올려 자연스럽게 비용을 맞춘다는 입장. 기후 목표 부분: 이 계획으로 2030년까지 목표의 약 40%를 달성할 것으로 보며, 2050년 해결은 어렵고 100년 이상의 프로젝트라고 봄. 탄소시장 부분: 탄소 거래와 직접 공기 포집(DAC)은 주변부 실험에 그치고 실질적 사업이 되기 어렵다고 평가. 에너지 공급 부분: 현재 전 세계 석유 생산은 최대 수준이며 증설에 2028~2030년이 걸려 공급 여력이 부족하다고 진단. 미국 등 자원국은 화석연료를 지금 판매해 자국민에게 재투자하라고 조언. 지정학 부분: 러시아의 노르트스트림 공급 차단으로 EU 천연가스 가격이 급등했다고 언급. 위워크 부분: 기업가치가 과거 최고 450~500억 달러에서 현재 약 36억 달러로 하락했으며, 부동산투자신탁(REIT)으로 평가되어야 한다고 분석. 주택 임대 사업으로 전환해도 프로로지스 규모가 되려면 아파트 약 66만 가구가 더 필요하다고 계산. 벤처캐피털 부분: 창업자가 VC 비즈니스 모델을 활용해 기술 기업으로 포장해 투자받는 구조를 지적. 종목·자산 언급: 대상 목록에 해당하는 개별 종목·지수의 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
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shocked if any of those folks were actually evading taxes at all because it's impossible the way that this infrastructure runs like you know you're getting k-1s from blackstone what are you going to do you're going to change that like totally you know like do you guys even know the pin number of your bank card i have no idea so it's so complicated yeah okay so so my point is i don't think that if there is if there is cheating of taxes it's happening at that level what's happening at that level are much more structural issues like carried interest which they decided not to touch or just in a state law trust in history those no i don't think that's my point it's not mistakes there's nobody with a pencil really filling out a k1 for bill gates dummy that's my point killed the idea of a carbon tax i think it makes it completely unimportant and it'll never see the light of day why i think it's because in the absence of what we did in the ira there wasn't a clear way of doing exactly what you said which is letting people figure out what the equivalent trading price would be for burning a pound of coal versus you know generating the energy needed to run something off of nuclear there was no market clearing function for that and the reason is because you couldn't get an equivalent amount of capacity effectively available online so that they could compete one for one what we did through this ira was essentially use money to create so many subsidies and then to also green light the way that incremental fossil fuel projects would come to market so that now they actually going to be put on a level playing field in the broad open market so they can compete when that happens i think you will make those trade-offs better yourself and as a result i don't think that there will be a necessary offset mechanism that will be required because this plan will still get us to about 40 percent of the way there where we want it to be by 2030 which is still a pretty decent leap forward there is no plan that gets us to where we all need to be anyways and i think that the appetite to go from this plan to where we need to be doesn't really exist so i think that we're just going to have to kind of grit our teeth get through the implementation of the ira and realize that this is the beginning of a probably a hundred plus year project nothing is going to get solved by 2050 maybe you'll see something done by 2100 probably not it'll probably be a 2150 2200 kind of an objective and in that lens i think like a whole bunch of business models got turned upside down so i think carbon markets and carbon trading are not going to be the thing that we thought it was going to be i think stuff like direct air capture again are going to be toy projects off to the side i don't think that those are toads are not those are not going to be credible businesses totally like we thought they were going to be instead the raw tonnage of dollars will do what america was able to do for solar and pv over 2000 to 2022 which is just crush the cost per watt into the pennies so that it can be equivalent to hydro coal and nuclear and put everything on a level playing field and then allow the market to figure it out how much do you think it would cost i don't know pick your pick to pick the most excruciatingly expensive third-party outsourcing firm you could okay to build an entire system to basically automatically review every single tax return and throw exceptions and machine learn and machine learn what fraud look like or what misrepresentation let's say five billion dollars it'd be the most expensive it'd be the most expensive piece of software ever written and this is what was so kind of like that was the only part of the bill that made not a less sense to me i think like if you put really smart computers on the case or gave it to deepmind at google and said can you guys build this this system or machine learning and ai you've got tax and a simpler tax which i guess this is trying to do but you know freeberg when i looked at this and you sent it my initial reaction was you know this old adage it'll be impossible for these guys to find 87 000 humans that want to work at the irs number one look couple things i i think it's really dramatic to kind of paint it in these dark kind of like bipolar terms i think we are post all of that so i understand how in the cold war it was easy to fall into binary definitions of good and evil one and zero us versus them team a versus team b but in 2022 i don't think that's how things work anymore we're in a highly interconnected highly global world it's very complicated uh dollar flows are real-time they're massive cooperation is real-time it's all over the world it's with every country so it allows every country actually the first chance that they've ever really had to maximize their own potential for their own citizens and that's really what every country's goal is right and so in that lens look what just happened today gasprom said they're going to shut off nordstrom one just for you know a few days right but as a result of that eu nat gas has just gone absolutely nuclear and just closed at all time highs keen x 14x where it was pandemic right uh you know price per unit for a year ahead so if you so if you take a step back we are at max energy production with all of the capacity all around the world 100 plus odd million barrels a day okay global productivity absorbs that there is very little room right now to expand that without pushing the date in which that capacity is available out until you know 2028 to 2030 so effectively a decade from now so if you're in this situation and you're a country with vast natural resources of which i'll just remind us america is one i think the most important thing you can do for your own citizens is to monetize these petrochemicals now get it out of the ground in a reasonable way sell them in the marketplace because there's demand for it take that money and reinvest it in your people and i think if you look at it that way the best run countries are responding to this moment in time like any company would how do you maximize demand and sell the product you have to the most number of customers globally and so i think the middle east is doing an incredible job the us by the way by passing the ira finally i think is on the right footing because we can talk about this in a moment but the path to permitting and the path to clean up and by the way it puts fossil fuels on a level playing field with with clean energy alternatives emerging alternatives yeah the best thing that could have happened okay so i think we're all behaving in a very rational market-focused way i have a couple thoughts the first is that wework is a really interesting business but that business had been built many times before and it's called the reit and i think what adam was able to arbitrage was a period of time where he pitched a non-real estate investor a technology company that was really just a real estate investment trust and that's why he was able to get these incredibly heady valuations i think the peak valuation of wework was like 45 or 50 billion dollars but what happened which is that when wework ultimately went public the collective intelligence of the public markets imposed a reit based valuation model on wework and it is now a 3.6 billion dollar public company and i don't think you can dunk on adam for that it's hard to build any kind of company let alone a 3.6 billion dollar company and he was instrumental in that so he should get some amount of credit but the reality was that he was pitching people that didn't want to hear about a business that was a real estate investment trust they wanted to hear about some technology and all of these other things but ultimately when you stripped it away it was a read now you started it again and from the outside in not knowing anything because we don't know anything what it looks like is the beginnings of another reit except focused on residential right so when you buy hundreds or thousands of apartments but again same pig different lipstick the the issue at hand though is that again he has found a technology investor to buy a technology story and again time will tell whether there is a technology business here but if it ultimately is an amalgamation of a bunch of apartments with some sort of you know interconnected technology that helps enable a better community or what have you those kinds of reits have also been built before and reits are valued in a very structured way on this thing called ffo funds from operations and you know what the upper bound evaluation is which is if you go and you know look in the stock market the most valuable reit in the world is a company called prologis they have about a billion square feet under management they're about a hundred billion dollar company wework has about 45 million square feet under management they're a 3.6 billion dollar company so if you just interpolate from those two data points on the residential side adam's going to have to buy you know if you think an average apartment is 1500 square feet he has to buy you know 665 000 more apartments in order for that to be pro lodge a scale you know i don't know to invest at a billion dollar valuation or 1.5 or two whatever the number turns out to be makes sense if you think the upper bound is unlimited but if you think the upper bound is three or four billion the only reason to do it by the way it still makes sense for end reason to do it and this is why i think people get tilted because now this comes to my second point which is that what adam newman is able to take advantage of is a very obvious powerful understanding of the venture capital business model that other founders don't especially the ones that dunk on him
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