저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁과 중국-러시아 군사 연계는 위험하지만, 에너지 시장은 합리적 수급 논리로 움직이며 산유국 자원 monetization은 정당하다는 취지. 전쟁 위험: 우크라이나 전쟁은 영구 교착 상태로 안정되기보다 언제든 통제 불능으로 확대될 수 있는 글로벌 리스크라고 강조. 지정학 인식: 냉전식 흑백 진영론은 2022년 현재의 고도로 연결된 세계에 맞지 않으며, 자금·무역 흐름이 실시간으로 얽혀 있어 복잡하다고 주장. 에너지 시장: 가스프롬의 노드스트림1 일시 중단으로 EU 천연가스 가격이 팬데믹 이후 최고 수준으로 급등. 전 세계 원유 생산 능력은 하루 1억 배럴 이상으로 최대치에 가까워 단기 증산 여력이 거의 없고, 추가 공급 여력은 2028~2030년 이후로 밀린다고 설명. 산유국 전략: 자원 보유국은 시장 수요가 있는 한 석유를 채굴해 판매하고, 수익을 국민에게 재투자하는 것이 책임이라고 주장. 미국(IRA 우회 및 허가 절차 정비로 화석연료와 청정에너지를 동등하게 취급하는 방향)과 중동(사우디의 주택·산업·교육 투자, 사회 자유화)을 긍정 평가. 소버린 펀드: 북유럽 국가들처럼 석유 수익을 해외 비상관 자산에 분산투자하는 것이 사우디의 현재 전략과 같다고 설명. 석유와 가장 상관관계가 낮은 자산으로 애플, 페이스북(메타), 구글을 언급. 출연자 전망: 시장 참여자들이 합리적으로 행동 중이며 국가 간 대립을 단순화하는 해석에는 동의하지 않음.
다듬은 글
sympathize with the people of ukraine all you want i mean it's dangerous you've said that in the past and i think the question is does this china military exercise in russia indicate an escalation of our conflict with china to you um you know or is this something that you know just kind of par for the course in terms of you know uh neighbors you know conducting meerscheimer just said an article in foreign affairs talking about uh the ukraine war reminding us that it's still going on i think people somehow think that this war is just stable and it'll settle into forever war status kind of like like afghanistan these conflicts in the middle east went on forever it's actually very dangerous it could always escalate out of control and as long as it's going on i think we just have to remember that it's going on it poses a huge global risk i think it's really dramatic to kind of paint it in these dark kind of like bipolar terms i think we are post all of that so i i understand how in the cold war it was easy to fall into binary definitions of good and evil one and zero us versus them team a versus team b but in 2022 i don't think that's how things work anymore we're in a highly interconnected highly global world it's very complicated uh dollar flows are real time they're massive cooperation is real time it's all over the world it's with every country so it allows every country actually the first chance that they've ever really had to maximize their own potential for their own citizens and that's really what every country's goal is right and so in that lens look what just happened today gasprom said they're going to shut off nordstrom one just for you know a few days right but as a result of that eu nat gas has just gone absolutely nuclear and just closed at all time highs keen x 14 x where it was pandemic right uh you know price per unit for a year ahead so if you so if you take a step back we are at max energy production with all of the capacity all around the world 100 plus odd million barrels a day okay global productivity absorbs that there is very little room right now to expand that without pushing the date in which that capacity is available out until you know 2028 to 2030 so effectively a decade from now so if you're in this situation and you're a country with vast natural resources of which i'll just remind us america is one i think the most important thing you can do for your own citizens is to monetize these petrochemicals now get it out of the ground in a reasonable way sell them in the marketplace because there's demand for it take that money and reinvest it in your people and i think if you look at it that way the best run countries are responding to this moment in time like any company would how do you maximize demand and sell the product you have to the most number of customers globally and so i think the middle east is doing an incredible job the us by the way by passing the ira finally i think is on the right footing because we can talk about this in a moment but the path to permitting and the path to clean up and by the way it puts fossil fuels on a level playing field with with clean energy alternatives emerging alternatives yeah the best thing that could have happened okay so i think we're all behaving in a very rational market-focused way and so i would focus less on trying to dramatically kind of resolve these things as a few countries versus everybody else i don't think that's what's happening yeah much more complex much more complicated than that but i think this the simple explanation is people with resources in the ground of the country in which they rule have a responsibility if they believe that there's market demand to absorb that so that they can take the revenue that comes from it and reinvest it in their people that is true for the united states it's true for saudi arabia it's true for every country in the world yeah i mean saudi arabia is clearly making these investments right not just on yeah by the way i mean like but also housing and new industry and education and then by the way saudi arabia and saudi arabia is becoming much more liberal as a result too right the education standards yeah and if you look at the investment like you know you didn't you you didn't need to go to dave swenson and understand portfolio allocation although i think the guys in saudi are smart enough to have probably done it but if you're if you have a lot of money coming from one kind of business and you need to make sure that you can diversify so that you can reinvest over a long period of time if you look at countries that had huge petrochemical related revenue flows the nordics what did they do they stood up these huge sovereign wealth funds and those sovereign wealth funds went abroad and they bought all kinds of non-correlated assets to those petrochemicals and that is the same thing that saudi is doing now financial security for their people but it's like it's like what is the furthest uncorrelated asset from oil it turns out it's apple facebook meta and google
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