저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
애크먼은 주가가 크게 하락한 우량기업을 가치투자 관점에서 매수하는 방식을 설명한다. 치폴레는 식품안전 사고로 주가가 약 50% 하락했지만 브랜드와 식재료 경쟁력이 여전히 강하다고 평가했다. 기업 분석은 SEC 공시, 실적 발표 자료, 전문가 인터뷰 등으로 진행하며, 진입장벽(해자)과 시스템 구축 능력을 중시한다. 과거 레스토랑 투자 실적이 우수했다고 언급했다. 가격이 지나치게 높으면 좋은 기업도 좋은 수익률을 내기 어렵다는 점을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
I was uh eating at Chipotle last night as I Was preparing these no thank you thank you and uh yeah it is it is one of my favorite places to eat you said it is a place that you eat you obviously also invest in it uh what do you get at yourip bule I tend to get a double chicken bowl or burrito um I I like the burrito but I I generally try to order the bowl yeah cut the carb for reasons all right and uh you know double chicken guac lettuce black beans and uh I'm I'm more of a steak guy just just putting that on the record uh what's the actual process you go through like literally like the process of figuring out what the value of a company is like how do you do the research is it reading documents is it talking to people is how do you do it it's all the about so Chipotle What attracted us initially is a stock price dropped by about 50% uh great company great concept um cons you know athletes love it consumers love it healthy sustainable uh fresh food made in front of your eyes and uh you know great Steve ell's the founder did an amazing job but ultimately the company's lacking some of the systems and had a food safety issue consumers got sick almost killed the rent uh but the reality of the fast food Quicks service industry is almost every fast food company has had a food safety issue over time and the vast majority have survived uh and we said look such a great concept but they you know their approach was not was far from ideal but we start with usually reading the SEC violing so companies file a 10K or an annual report they file these quarterly reports called 10 Q's they have a proxy statement which describes kind of the governance the board structure um conference call transcripts are publicly available it's kind of very helpful to go back five years and kind of learn the story you know here's how management describes their business here's what they say they're going to do then you can follow along to see what they do uh it's like a historical record of you know of how competent and uh truthful they are you it's a very useful device and then of course looking at competitors uh and thinking about you know who could what could dislodge this company um uh you know and then we'll talk to if it's an industry we don't know well we know the restaurant industry really well music industry you know we'll talk to people in the industry we'll try to understand you know the difference between publishing and recorded music we'll look at the competitors um we'll talk to we'll read books you I read a book about the music industry or a couple books about the industry um so it's it's a bit like a big research project uh and you there these so-called expert networks now and you can get pretty much anyone on the phone uh and they'll talk to you about an aspect of the industry that you don't understand want to learn more about uh try to get a sense you know public filings of companies generally give you a lot of information but not everything you want to know and you can learn more by talking to experts about some of the industry Dynamics the personalities you want to get a sense of management uh I like watching you know podcasts if a CEO were to do a podcast or YouTube interview you get a sense of the people so in the case of Chipotle for example by the way I could talk about Chipotle all day I just love it I love it I wish there was a sponsor uh I'll mention it to the CEO don't make promises you can't keep bill I'm not making ran Nichols is a fantastic CEO he's not going to spend $1 doar that he doesn't think it's the company's best interest all right all I want is free Chipotle come on now uh what was I saying oh and so you look at a company like Chipotle and then you see there's a difficult moment in its history like you said that uh there was a food safety issue and then you say okay well I see a path where we can fix this and therefore even though the price is low we can get it to where the price goes up up to its value MH so the kind of business we're looking for is sort of the kind of business everyone should be looking for right a great business it's got a long-term trajectory of growth out into the for you know even beyond the foreseeable distance right those are the kind of businesses you want to own you want businesses that generate a lot of cash you want businesses you can easily understand you want businesses with these sort of huge barriers to entry where it's difficult for others to compete you want companies that don't have to constantly raise Capital um and these are some of the Great business of the world but people have figured out that those are the great businesses so the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business so we we can't earn the kind of returns we want to earn for investors by paying a really high price price matters a lot you can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns so we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or they or you have a company that's kind of lost its way but it's recoverable and that's we buy from shareholders who are disappointed who've lost confidence selling at a low price relative to what it's worth if fixed and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company you said that uh barriers to entry you said a lot of really interesting qualities of companies very quickly in a sequence of statements that took like less than 10 seconds to say but some of them were fasc all of them were fascinating so you said barriers to entry how do you know if there's a type of moat protecting of the the competitors from stepping up to the plate I mean the most difficult analysis to do as an investor is that is kind of figuring out how wide is the moat how you know how much at risk is the business to disruption and we're in I would say a period the greatest period of disrupt ability in history right Tech technology you know a couple of 19-year-olds can you know leave whatever University or maybe they didn't even go in the first place uh they can raise you know millions of dollars uh they can get access to infinite uh bandwidth storage uh they can contract with uh engineers in lowcost markets around the world they can build a virtual company and they can disrupt businesses that seem super established over time and then on top of that you have major companies with multi- trillion dollar market caps working to find profits wherever they can and so that's a dangerous World in a way to be an investor and so you want to you have to find businesses that it's hard to foresee a world in which they get disrupted and the beauty of the restaurant business and we've actually are best track record is in restaurants we've never lost money uh we've only made a fortune interestingly investing restaurants a big part of it it's a really simple business and if you you know get your pootle right and you're at 100 stores you know it's not not so hard to Envision getting to 200 stores and then getting to 500 stores right and the key is maintaining the brand image growing intelligently having the right systems uh you know now when you go from 100 stores to 3,500 stores you have to know what you're doing there's a lot of complexity right you know if you think about your local restaurant uh you know the family's working in the business they're they're watching the cash register and you can probably open another restaurant you know across town but there very few restaurant operators that own more than a few restaurants and operate them successfully and the and the quick service business is about systems and building a model that uh a stranger who doesn't know the restaurant industry can come in and enter the business and build a successful uh successful franchise now Chipotle is not a franchise company they actually own all their own stores but many of the most successful restaurant companies are franchise models like a Burger King a McDonald's Tim Hortons you know all these various Brands Popeyes and there it's about systems but the same systems apply whether you own all the stores and it's run by a big Corporation or whether the owners of the restaurants are are sort of franchisees you know local entrepreneurs so if the restaurant has scaled to a certain number that means they've figured out some kind of system that works it's very difficult to develop that kind of system so that's a moe a moe is you get to a certain scale and you do it successfully and the brand is now in the in the understood by the consumer and what's interesting about pole is what they've achieved is difficult right they're not buying frozen hamburgers getting shipped in they're buying fresh you know sustainably sourced ingredients they're preparing food in the store that was the first right the quality of the product of Chipotle is incredible it's the highest quality food you can get for you can get a serious dinner for under 20 bucks uh and eat really Health you know healthfully and very high quality ingredients and that's just not available anywhere else and it's very hard to replicate and to build those relationships with you know Farmers around the country it's a lot easier to make a deal with one of the big you know massive food producers and buy your pork from them uh than to buy from a whole bunch of farmers around the country and so it's that is a Big Moe for Chipotle very difficult to replicate and by the way another company I think you have a stake is is McDonald's no we own a company called restaurant Brands restaurant Brands owns a number of Quick service companies one of which is Burger King Burger King okay well um It's been a for a while but I've Burger King is great too Wendy's whatever but usually go to McDonald's I'll just eat burger patties I don't know if you you knew you could do this but a burger patty at Burger King can do this McDonald's it's actually way cheaper they'll just sell you the Pat the Pat and it's cheap it's like $150 or $2 for per Patty and it's about 250 calories and it's just meat and despite like the criticism of memes out there that's pretty healthy stuff it's healthy stuff and so when I do when I go my the healthiest I feel is when I do carnivore it doesn't sound healthy but if I eat only meat I feel really good I lose weight I have all this energy it's crazy and the when I'm traveling the easiest way to get me is that you go to McDonald's you order six patties exactly so there's this sad meme of me just sitting alone in a car when I'm traveling just eating beef patties and McDonald but I love it and you got to do what what you love when makes you happy and that's what makes me happy we should maybe we have Burger King feature in what about flame world what what's with these fried burgers we to get you to Burger King you know grilled burgers wait is this like fast food trash I didn't know I don't know the details of how they're made I'm not I don't have Allegiance think we got a chance to switch you to Burger King great we'll see I I'm I'm making so many deals today it's wonderful
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