Value-investing vs speculation explained | Bill Ackman and Lex Fridman

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Bill Ackman은 벤저민 그레이엄의 『현명한 투자자』가 투자 인생의 출발점이었다고 말하며, 가격과 가치의 차이를 강조한다. 단기 주식시장은 투표기계(수급·투기)이고 장기로는 체중계(실제 가치)라는 그레이엄의 비유를 소개하고, 투기와 투자를 구분한다. 가치는 기업이 평생 창출할 현금흐름의 현재가치이며, 채권은 예측이 쉽고 주식은 사업 현금흐름 예측이 필요하다. 그래서 대부분의 투자는 투기가 되기 쉽고, 장기간 현금흐름을 높은 확신으로 예측할 수 있는 드문 기업을 찾는 것이 본인의 일이라고 설명한다. 특정 종목이나 시장에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다.

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01. in your lecture on the basics of finance and investing you uh mentioned a book intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life what key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing sure actually it was the first investment book I read and uh as such it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life so important book you know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression people lost confidence investing in markets World War II and then he writes his book it's for like the average man and basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value right price is what you pay value is what you get and he said the stock market is here to serve you right and it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house makes you a stupid offer you ignore it uh makes you a great offer you can take it and that's the stock market and the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it he talked about the difference between you said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine it represents speculative interests you know supply and demand of people uh in the short term but in the long term it's the stock market's a weighing machine you much more accurate it's going to tell you what something's worth and so if you can Define what something's worth then you can really take advantage of the market because it's really here to to help you and that's kind of the message of the book in that same way there's a kind of difference between speculation and investing yeah speculation is just a bit like buying trading uh crypto right you're strong words well uh short-term trading crypto maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value but uh the you know it's many investors you know in a bubble going into the you know the the crash uh were really just pure speculators they didn't know what things were worth they just knew they were going up right that's speculation um and investing uh is you know doing your homework uh digging down understanding a business understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry understanding what Management's going to do understanding what price you're going to pay you know the value of anything I would say uh other than love let's say uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life now some people think about love that way but it's not it's not the right way to think about love but it's uh yeah so investing is about basically building a a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime so how do you get to that this idea of called value investing how do you get to the value of a thing even like philosophically value of anything really but we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market sure companies the value of a security the value uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life so if you're think about a bond Bond your bond you know pays a 5% coupon interest rate you get that let's say every year or twice a year split and half and it's very predictable and if it's a US Government Bond you know you're going to get it so that's a pretty easy thing to value a stock is an interest in a business it's like owning a piece of a company and a business a profitable one is like a bond and that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow you know every year the difference with uh a stock and a bond is that uh the bond it's a contract you know what you're going to get as long as they don't go bankrupt in default with a stock you have to make predictions about the business you know how many widgets are going to sell this year how many going to sell next year uh what are their costs going to be how much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going um and uh that's more complicated um but you know what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time and there very few businesses that you can have a really high degree of certainty about and as a result you know many Investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future so we what we do for a living what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're going to look like over a very long period of time