저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman은 구글(알파벳)이 ChatGPT 충격으로 PER 약 15배까지 과도하게 하락했다고 보고, 검색·유튜브 독점력과 막대한 현금·데이터 자산을 근거로 AI 경쟁에서 뒤지지 않으며 현 가격이 매우 저평가라고 주장한다. 클라우드 사업의 수익은 재투자 중이라 실적에 잡히지 않아 추가 옵션 가치가 있다고 본다. 다만 AI는 기술주를 붕괴시킬 수 있는 대표적 파괴 자산이라는 위험도 인정한다.
다듬은 글
you were talking about most and this kind of remind me of um alphabet the parent company sure we're where's it's a big position for us so it's interesting that you're uh think that maybe alphabet fits some of these characteristics It's tricky to know with everything that's happening in in Ai and I'm interviewing s Pai soon it's interesting that you think that there's a mo and it's also interesting to analyze the as a consumer as just a fan of Technology why is Google still around like they've been it's not just the search engine it's doing all the basics of the business of search really well but they're doing all these other stuff so what's your analysis of alphab why are you still positive about it sure so it's a business we've admired as a firm for you know whatever 15 years um but rarely got to a price that we felt we could own it because again the expectations were so high and price really matters and really the sort of AI scare I would call it you know Microsoft comes out with chat GPT uh they do an amazing demonstration people like this most incredible product and Google which had been working on AI even earlier obviously the Microsoft Microsoft was behind an AI it was really their chat GPT deal that gave them a kind of a a market presence um and then Google does this fairly disastrous uh demonstration of Bard and the world says oh my God Google's fallen behind an AI a is the future stock gets crushed Google gets to a price around 15 times earnings uh which for a business of this quality is an extremely extremely low price and our view on Google one way to think about it when a business becomes a verb that's usually a pretty good sign about the mode around the business so you know you open your computer and you open your search and very high percentage of the world starts with a Google you know page in a on line uh you type in your your search you know the Google advertising search YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant uh franchises in the world very difficult to disrupt uh extremely profitable uh the world is moving from offline advertising to online advertising and that Trend I think continues why because you can actually see what your ads work you know they used to say about advertising you know uh you spend a fortune and you just don't know which 50% of it works but you just sort of spend the money because you know it ultimately that's going to bring in the customer and now with online advertising you can see with granularity which dollars I'm spending you know when people click on the search term and end up buying something and I pay you know the it's a very high return on investment for The Advertiser and they really dominate that business now ai of course is a risk if all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of chat GPT and don't start with the Google search bar that's a risk to the company and so our view based on work we had done and talked to Industry experts is that Google if anything had a a uh by virtue of the the investment they've made the time the energy they people put into it we felt their AI capabilities were if anything potentially greater than uh Microsoft Chat GPT and that the market had overreacted and I because Google you know is a big company uh Global business Regulators uh scrutinized it incredibly carefully they couldn't take some of the same Liberties a startup like open I did in releasing a product and I think Google took a more cautious approach in releasing an early version of Bard in terms of its capabilities and that let the mark the world to believe that they were behind and we ultimately concluded if any they're tied or ahead and you're paying nothing uh for the that potential business and they're going to and they also have huge advantages BYT you think of all the data Google has like the search data um all the various app you know applications you know email and otherwise and the kind of the Google Suite of of products it's an incredible dat data set so they have more training data than pretty much any company in the world they have incredible Engineers they have enormous Financial Resources uh so that was kind of the BET and um and we still think it's probably the cheapest of the big seven companies in terms of price you're paying for the business relative to its current earnings it also is a business uh that has a lot of potential for efficiency you know sometimes when you have this enormously profitable dominant company you know all of the technology companies in the post March 20 world uh grew enormously in terms of their teams and they probably over hired and so you've seen some you know the Facebooks of the world and now even Google starting to get a little more efficient in terms of their operation so we p a low multiple for their the business um one way to think about the value of the business is the price you pay for the earnings or alternatively what's the yield if you flip over the price over the earnings it gives you kind of the yield of the business so a 15 multiple is about a almost a 7 half% yield and that earnings yield is growing over time as the business grows that's a you know compared to uh what you can earn lending your money to the government you know 4% that's a very attractive going in yield and then there's all kinds of what we call optionality in all the various businesses and Investments they've made that are losing money they've got a cloud business that's growing very rapidly but they're investing basically 100% of the profits from that business in growth so you're in that earnings number you're not seeing any earnings from the cloud business and you know they one of the top Cloud players so very interesting generally well-managed uh company with Incredible assets and resources and dominance you know and has no debt it's got ton of cash and so pretty good story is there something fundamentally different about AI that makes all of this more complicated which is the sort of the exponential possibilities of the kinds of products and impact that AI could create when you're looking at meta Microsoft alphabet Google all these companies xai or maybe startups like is is there some more risk introduced by the possibilities of AI absolutely that's a great question um you know business investing is about finding companies that can't be disrupted AI is the ultimate disruptable asset uh or technology and it that's what makes investing treachery is that you own a business that's enormously profitable management gets if you will fat and happy and then a new technology emerges that just takes away all their profitability and AI is this incredibly powerful tool which is why every business is saying how can I use AI in in my business to make us more profitable more successful grow faster and also disrupt or protect oursel from the you know the incomings you know it's it's a bit like you know Buffett talks about um a great business like a castle surround rounded by this really wide modee but you have all these barbarians trying to get in and uh steal the uh princess and uh it happens you know Kodak for example was an amazing incredibly dominant company until it disappeared Polaroid you know this incredible technology and that's why we have tended to stay away from companies that are technology companies because technology companies generally the world is such a dynamic place that someone's always working on a better version and you know codc was caught up in the analog film world and then the world changed well Google was pretty fat and happy until chadti came out how would you rate their ability to wake up lose weight and be uh less happy and aggressively ReDiscover their search for happiness I think you've seen a lot of that in the last year uh and uh I would say some combination of embarrassment and pride are huge motivator uh for everyone from Sergey Brin you know to the management of the company um and Demis Cabas throw in into the picture and all of Deep Mind teams and the unification of teams and like all the shakeups it was interesting to watch the chaos I love it I love it when uh everybody freaks out like you said partly embarrassment and partly that competitive drive that drives Engineers is great they can't wait to see what um there've been just a lot of improvement in the product let's see let's see where it goes
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