저자: AdamFeather · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 마이클 버리(Scion Asset Management)의 2020년 4분기 13F 공시 기반 포트폴리오 분석이며, 상위 보유 종목 중심으로 다룬다. 결론: 버리는 단기 고점 예측보다 저평가 매수 원칙을 유지하며, 시티그룹 콜옵션을 최대 보유로 두고 6~12개월 내 경기 재개와 구글 제휴 효과를 기대하는 것으로 해석된다. [포트폴리오 개요] 상위 5개 종목에 1억 달러 이상 투자, 펀드 자산의 약 1/3 규모. 과거 게임스탑 등에서 이익 실현 후 매도한 사례 언급. 최근 금융·에너지·부동산 비중 확대, 커뮤니케이션·필수소비재 축소로 추정. [시티그룹(Citigroup) 콜옵션] 최대 보유 포지션: 콜옵션 539,600주, 약 3,327만 달러. 근거: 구글과 제휴해 온라인 고객 확보, 예금기반 확대, 중국 위챗 연계 등 기술기업 협력. 밸류에이션 저평가(레버리지·유동성 측면 우위), 자사주 매입으로 발행주식 1/3 감소, 배당 수익률 3% 이상. 영상 추정 내재가치 주당 약 80달러 언급. 장기 전망은 약세로 보나 6~12개월은 상승 기대. 인플레이션 우려는 있으나 배당 방어력 언급. [크래프트하인즈(Kraft Heinz) 콜옵션] 약 2,043만 달러 투자. 마케팅 예산 5년간 30% 증액 계획, 매출 개선 조짐. 주가는 장외 38달러 수준으로 2년 이상 최고치, 2017년 90달러대 고점 대비 크게 하락한 이력 강조. 배당은 분기 0.40달러(연 1.60달러), 배당 일관성 등급 F, 수익률 약 4.19%. [리스크] 인플레이션 시 은행 마진 및 실질금리 악화 가능성. 과거 크래프트하인즈 대규모 손실·SEC 소환 이력. [기타 참고] 영상 후반부는 클라우스 슈밥, 디지털화폐 등 거시 담론을 언급하나 종목 투자 판단과 직접 연결되지 않음.
다듬은 글
welcome to finance in five friends i'm excited because as we know the 13f filings for the final quarter q4 of 2020 were published recently and can be found when you visit sec.gov in today's video i can bring you the latest glimpse into scion asset management's public portfolio and so you need to you need to find special situations it's it's how i've invested from the beginning i'm looking for these special situations these unique ideas i have a strong feeling you're really going to enjoy today's video since there is so much to cover we're going to break the update into bite-sized sections each focusing on around five companies otherwise the run time would be at least two hours in today's episode we look at some of his biggest holdings so these are the ones which he has the highest amounts of money invested into as we rank order the investments by dollar amount invested we discover pretty quickly that bowie has invested in excess of 100 million dollars into just these top five companies in the form of either shares or coal options so that 100 million dollars is just less than a third of sion's capital as it has played out i just don't think that the recovery is going to be that robust of course there are videos all over youtube talking about how berry made hundreds of millions from gamestop michael bury has made an absolute fortune if you don't know michael bury he is this guy from the big short while there's no denying he made a profit it turns out that he sold at around twenty dollars per share which was before the recent run-up let's check out this quote that bury made to shareholders in his fund in the early 2000s as much as the fund is a value fund it's an opportunistic fund and as much as i enthusiastically explore the value of each business behind every stock i seek the pockets of the market that are the most inefficient the most temporarily imbalanced in terms of price whatever extra return this fund will earn will be born of buying absurdly cheap rather than selling dearly smitten i certainly have proven no ability to pick tops and i do not anticipate attempting such a feat in the future rather fully aware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices i will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse therefore we have it and this is what's interesting because barry even back then 20 years ago pointed out that he didn't claim to be able to time the top of a market which is why it would be better for him even in the case of gamestop to have sold out having made 100 million dollars as opposed to trying to time the top a set of principles underpins his investment model and that's what he's used on each occasion and that's what he will transpose into future investments for going up to 900 million dollars in gamestop profits is unfortunate but we're unlikely to see the mild mana doctor getting upset about that so today's video will be the first in a series of at least three maybe four so please hang around for the rest if you like these brewery videos and you enjoy these explorations and deep dives into companies which are under appreciated by the market you're not going to want to miss the content we have for you so the basic overview of what we will talk about here is that we'll look at the top few holdings in this video of scion capital and then in future videos we'll go down the list and look at other companies in the same way this means that as the videos go on the capital allocation devoted to each of the companies decreases but bear in mind boeing still has millions invested in each company so effectively they're all high conviction picks regardless of investment size as we'll see it tends to be timing that is critical when it comes to bury and his investing patterns he doesn't hold on to these shares forever no he tries to buy at a price which is close to the 52-week low and then sells that company at a higher price before it drops back down while i'm not going to reflect on all of his profits in this video his fund was very successful last year companies such as precision drilling cvs pharmaceuticals gamestop are ones that he made profits on and sold quietly other companies such as allstate realty income lumen are companies that he has kept but trimmed his positions on but mostly selling for more than he bought the shares at while keeping some shares in those companies so even on a balance of probabilities there's a reasonable chance that if you buy shares in a company brewery has picked close to the time at which he buys in considering the fact that he probably will have done a lot more research into those companies than you given that it's his entire life's focus pretty much you'll probably net some gains yourself as well at least if recent historical performance is anything to go by bury's portfolio as things stand seems to be weighted more heavily towards finance energy and real estate with him selling out of companies focused on communication and consumer staples and there are a number of reasons why i think he may have shifted his holdings around a little bit since q3 of 2020.
considering the fact that dr bury has shared a number of interesting tweets recently about issues ranging from government debt to nuclear energy to the future of bitcoin i'm actually going to be doing a number of deep dive videos this week and next week looking at bury's views on these topics and providing analysis so if that's the kind of content you'd like be sure to smash that bell and subscribe so that you don't miss any of these crucial updates at this key moment in history now just how much cash is dr michael jeroboa and berry senior iv esquire actually managing these days well it depends on which sources you read but his largest holding is in a call option in city group that's the first one we're going to look at what is citigroup it's a bank and interestingly the chairman of this particular bank took a pay cut last year i know heartbreaking isn't it can you imagine how can any of us really sleep at night unless bankers are being paid at least 20 million dollars a year i for one certainly can't which is what makes this particular headline all the more disturbing at least james or jamie dinan as he's called has not had to worry about such a loss so why would michael bury secure call options worth 33.27 million dollars for 539 600 shares in citibank is he just trying to appear woke because of the fact that the world's fourth largest bank by assets now has a female boss unlikely if you've been following this channel for any length of time then you'll be familiar with the google call options that bury bought last year this was the biggest position in his portfolio at one point then he sold them at various times as google's share price recovered between april and the next six months of the year the google call options were his top holding well today citibank calls are his top holding and what unites the two that many people might not be aware of is that big tech is effectively trying to make its move into banking city is partnering with google in an attempt to capture more online customers this was announced in late 2019 and is unlikely to have escaped mr bury as robert armstrong wrote in the financial times silicon valley has already cracked payments it is only a matter of time before it overturns more complex banking functions fundamentally a bank is a balance sheet a data processing system and a sales force then he adds silicon valley companies or google may be content to leave the balance sheet the most heavily regulated bit to the banks but they are coming for the other bits city he says seems to be willing to move in this direction because of its drive to increase its deposit base and its number of customers it's got a small physical footprint in the us branches in just six strategic market locations which is far fewer than jp morgan and bank of america through citiplex accounts we are leveraging the best of city and google combining cities banking know-how with google's best-in-class user experiences and cutting-edge technology to drive a stream of new services and capabilities in our ecosystem city's been trying with some success to increase deposits nationwide but the road to more retail deposits has been difficult and it's been expensive the partnership with google according to this journalist may prove to be a cheaper way to gather deposits than the combination of channels city is trying now even if google one way or another takes a big cut of the money in asia for instance partnerships with tech companies are already a key part of city's retail operations in mainland china 90 of its customers use wechat to complete everyday banking and credit card transactions citigroup sees real growth potential within the bank's balance sheet from google side of course there is a worldwide customer base that city is building and google is a data processing system however google also is a marketing giant as well as i'm sure you know the more inflation there is the less you can buy with your savings once inflation ticks higher than the nominal rate the banks will be lending money for negative real interest studies show inflation reduces banks earnings so why would bury invest in city if he knows this well fundamentally it is undervalued in his opinion and you could argue that citigroup offers the best valuation the lowest leverage and the highest liquidity making it the most attractive of all of the big bank stocks these factors would seem to outweigh any inflation related concerns city has lagged its peers in terms of profitability for the last decade so its valuation is lower still the company is fairly shareholder friendly the buybacks have decreased the number of outstanding shares by one-third since 2016 meaning city pays an extremely safe annual dividend of over three percent and if inflation does take hold as many predict it will citi can raise its dividend at a pace higher than the inflation rate so income investors wouldn't or shouldn't suffer nominal dividend decreases my gut view is that bowie sea city has an intrinsic value of around 80 per share and the call options purchased will allow him greater leverage of the price appreciation that we're witnessing until he sells his position completely he may expect the longer term outlook to be bearish but think that in the next six to 12 months as the economy reopens and the google partnership plays out this will benefit city's bottom line i'm just going to make a side note here so i would refer you to the time stamps in this video if you just want to jump to the next stock but briefly in the past on this channel we have mentioned klaus schwab his 2018 book the fourth industrial revolution is certainly a worthwhile read if you find yourself trying to envision what a post-apocalyptic hellscape will actually look like if we are to take him at his word companies such as google will certainly make fortunes from tracking devices and from widespread implementation of digital currencies where they hope to replace the banks because let's face it if you own nothing then you will also have no bank account and banks won't really be lending anymore and since governments favor modern monetary theory they'll just no longer need the banks to sell their debt to anybody since there won't be any debt the hidden reality behind the whole you will owe nothing and be happy is that you also won't notice that every government has defaulted on its debts and is just rolling them over it's a way of them collapsing under the weight of their unfunded liabilities without you actually realizing that that's what's happened but all of that is a side issue and who knows whether or not the true horror of those thoughts will unfold in any way shape or form to return to the video company two craft heinz michael berry has over 20.439 million dollars invested into call options in kraft heinz kraft heinz is expecting to increase its marketing budget by 30 percent in the next five years and its sales figures are already showing positive forward momentum the company rallied after bury stake was revealed in february and right now it trades over the counter at 38 per share which is its highest share price in over two years this sounds good but as recently as may 2017 it traded at over 90 dollars per share warren buffett bought a stake in the company at its peak blissfully unaware that he was about to lose four billion dollars in a day when the share price of kraft heinz plummeted the stock fell 25 more in february 2019 after kraft heinz wrote down billions in losses cut its dividend by 36 announced it had received a subpoena from the securities and exchange commission relating to its accounting policies delayed the filing of its financial results and wrote down the value of its business by an additional 1.2 billion dollars but apart from these minor nickels this was an excellent investment back in 2019 certain pugnants began to question buffett's mental faculties some wrote kraft heinz off as an expensive failure but as michael bury himself so memorably opined man is it his most creative when staring into the abyss it seems the public humiliation brought about by a mass exodus of shareholders was a chastening experience for management one which prompted the soul-searching necessary to turn the company around as well as to bend the ear and consequently the wallet of dr michael bury one thing that i find endlessly fascinating about the craft heinz price roller coaster of the last few years is the company's tirelessly optimistic approach to pushing forward in the face of overwhelming and sometimes all-encompassing evidence of abject failure this slide taken from the heinz investor day 2020 presentation shows us up close five approaches that the company is using to increase its success innovation renovation marketing distribution and revenue management each are being reimagined from the ground up not only that the product lines sold by the company have themselves been subdivided into six sections on the face of it these phrases appear a little gimmicky but they're based in all likelihood on extensive research as well as expensive marketing taste elevation for instance from what i can understand in this article deals with condiments things like ketchups mustards and the like other sectors are pretty self-explanatory but the fact that this is all subdivided in theory should increase the engagement and attachment that employees have to their job roles which is going to be critical for boosting the success of this company going forward and in spite of the fact that the dividend was cut a couple of years ago the craft heinz company still produces 1.60 per share in dividends every single year however the dividend consistency grade is rated f which is not great the yield itself is good sending it just over 4.19 the consistent payouts of 40 cents per share since the 21st of february 2019 every quarter remain stable
Comments 0