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it's uh down seven eight percent today i'm talking about bitcoin tesla's down i don't know if that's related i'm sure it's not but um if tesla or if bitcoin were to have one of these uh moves that we've seen in previous years from the high and i'm not i don't know whether things have changed with with more mass adoption and everything else going on dan but just for argument's sake let's say that it did go down significantly could that have a material effect on tesla just like the the positive move had on that billion dollar number you were talking about yeah it's a great question obviously it just adds to the volatility in the story it still contained 1.5 billion that they invested but i think this is not just a fad i think tesla's going to continue to double down on its bitcoin investment and you're seeing from a transaction perspective as well but no doubt that they've made about a billion dollars on paper from bitcoin that's more they made from a profit and all of ev sales 2020.
i think it just speaks to what we're seeing in terms of this market so what if they lost a billion look that's that continues to be the doublet sorta in terms of the risk parameters that they put in you know billion and a half of things contain strategy in terms of most investors but no doubt i mean this is something that musk and tesla that they're going to dive into the deep end of the pawn bitcoin because they're not just doing it from an investment perspective but from a transaction uh perspective and in our opinion we think three to five percent of public companies will go down this route over the next 12 to 18 months from an investment perspective but until regulatory goal posts are put in we don't think it ratchets up too much beyond that three to five percent and what's the rationale as a speculative buy as a a hedge against the debasement of fiat currency we had the discussion earlier and i mean it's kind of funny i mean if someone decides look i i i think bonds are going up and i you know a corporate manager puts everything in five-year notes is that manipulating the bond market so i i don't the the corporate managers have a lot of reasons for doing things that might not be transactional uh you think that a percentage of a corporate uh of a corporation's asset should be in bitcoin well i think that's going to be for the company as well as the boards to decide but i think we've seen microstrategy tesla you know square and some others i think this is a trend that that could become more mainstream i think you need regulatory goal posts put in for more boards and companies to go down this route but i think it's going to have a ripple effect in terms of what musk and tesla have done here but i think the bigger story is what we're seeing on blockchain semis and payments this is really creating a whole new ecosystem with you know musk and tesla definitely taking a bit mainstream what we're seeing what about um the model y what can you tell me did you see this headline today uh that that we're seeing that it's no longer listed on the company's sales webpage uh price was slashed last week unknown uh where the uh model y standard range why it's not listed anymore do you have any uh knowledge on what's happening there dan yeah i mean look you'll continue to see some price cuts especially in china but if we look overall between model 3 and model y this is a coming right now it's on track to do 800 000 vehicles this year in a million going in 2022 and the heaters will continue to hate on tesla but if we look at evs the golden age that we're going into you know in our opinion there's a five trillion dollar market over the next decade model y is going to play a factor in that you know we think that's strong out of the gates especially in china
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