저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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결론: 엘-에리언은 규제 공백과 금리 상승 압력 속에서 시장이 혼조 경제지표에 민감하게 반응하며, 단기적으로 물가 급등(일시적 가격 상승)이 연준을 곤란하게 할 가능성이 크다고 본다. 청문회 전망: 이번 게임스톱 청문회의 핵심 메시지는 규제당국이 은행에서 비은행으로의 리스크 이동과 시장구조 변화에 뒤처졌다는 점이며, 시장이 거의 사고 직전까지 갔지만 경제 상황이 엇갈려 구체적 규제 가이드라인은 나오기 어렵다고 봤다. 경제지표: 전일 소매판매는 좋았고 금일 실업수당 청구건수는 실망스러웠다. 시장 반응이 핵심으로, 좋은 뉴스가 더 이상 호재가 아니고 나쁜 뉴스도 더 이상 호재가 아닌 상황이다. 금리 신호: 10년물 금리 상승과 장단기 커브 스티프닝(정크 등 장기 구간 금리 하락 포함)을 주목해야 한다. 이는 인플레이션 우려를 반영한다. 인플레이션 전망: 재정 부양책(약 2조 달러 규모 두 패키지)과 연준의 월 1,200억 달러 자산매입을 합치면 GDP의 20~25%에 해당하는 자금 주입이 가능하다는 계산이다. 수요는 빠르게 회복되지만 공급은 즉각 대응하지 못해 물가 수준이 연준 예상을 크게 웃돌 것이라고 본다. 신용시장: 연준이 뒷받침하는 한 신용 매수는 계속되지만, 10년물 금리가 약 1.4~1.5%를 넘는 지점에서 두 신호가 충돌할 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 연준이 인플레이션 압력에 대응해야 하는 상황이 되면 정책 부담이 커지고, 공급 측 요인(임금, 에너지 가격 등)이 물가 상승을 더 키울 수 있다.
다듬은 글
joining us now to talk markets and what he's expecting if anything significant from today's gamestop uh hearing in washington mohamed elairian allianz and gramercy advisor and president of queen's college uh in cambridge there is a hearing today muhammad and when it was happening we did speak to you about whether there were bigger issues involved in that entire incident so maybe you do have some some thoughts but i'd also like to get your thoughts on some of the recent economic numbers we've seen we've got you know not great uh news in the jobs market but you know some inflation uh numbers that that were interesting to say the least and and then also um what was the other one that uh they can oh great retail sales numbers and it's kind of a flush consumer so there's a lot of a lot of the trade winds a lot of different things going on where are you so so let me start with the hearings we're going to get lots of headlines lots of sound sound bites the big message joe will be that regulators have lagged in a serious manner the migration of risk from banks to non-banks and the changing market structure the other big um signal will be that we came very close to market accident but we're not going to get very very specific guidelines on regulation because there's so many competing issues here on the economy yeah the data is mixed um yesterday's retail sale was great today's employment droplets claims number is disappointing um but the key issue joe is look at the reaction of markets good news is no longer good news for the markets bad news is no longer good news for the markets and keep an eye as you've heard me say for the last few weeks on the 10-year yield and on the steeping of the curves that's going to tell you what how the market is going to react to a mixed economic picture muhammad which interest rates are giving us the true signal the the rates going up on the 10-year the rates going down out the curve on on things like junk so i think you're getting two signals one is fear about inflation and that's why these curves are steepening and if you add up the numbers you can easily get to injections of 20 to 25 percent of gdp even under some modest policy scenario because remember you've got the fed pedal to the metal at 120 billion a month and you've got three to four billion coming trillion coming in um from the fiscal on two packages so there we are there are inflation concerns and that's what the bond market is telling you what the spreads are telling you is that for now for now the markets do not believe that fed effectiveness in delivering low volatility in the credit market is going to change um because they don't believe rightly that we're going to have a wave of bankruptcies so as long as the fed has your back covered you will continue to buy credit but the two things conflict at some point and that's what people who look at the details of the market are investigating very closely where is that point some people think it's around 140 to 150 on the 10-year yield are the stars aligning for inflation to at least be higher than it's been recently maybe we don't have resurgent inflation like like we've worried about or we stopped worrying about but we used to worry about it but i mean you look maybe wage pressure who knows what happens all the stimulus that we're seeing energy prices which are going up by a flush consumer you know there's just a lot all the money printing that's just i can point to a lot of things what's deflationary at this point muhammad to offset some of those things so the inflationary side and i won't use the word inflation i'm going to make the distinction steve just made we're going to have a pop in the price level this year that's going to be well above what the fed is expecting why because of the missed timing demand is going to go up effective demand is going to turn notional demand is going to turn into effective demand supply is not going to respond that quickly so we will have a pop in price levels the economist will tell you oh i'm not sure it's an inflationary process the market will not make that distinction so we will get a change in price level that is in excess of what the fed thinks and it's going to put the fed in a difficult situation as to the underlying elements i think if you look at the supply side and you look at other influences this is likely to be a price pop as opposed to an inflationary proces
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