Wedbush's Dan Ives on estimating that Tesla has made roughly $1 billion in profits from bitcoin

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결론: 테슬라가 비트코인으로 약 10억 달러 평가이익을 냈고, 기업들의 비트코인 편입은 확대될 것이지만 규제 정비 전까지는 제한적이라는 낙관론. 비트코인 변동성: 당일 비트코인과 테슬라가 약 7~8% 하락했으나 직접적 연관은 없다는 진행자 질문에 답변. 과거 급등락을 언급하며 가격이 크게 내려가면 테슬라 실적에도 영향이 있을 수 있다는 점을 인정. 테슬라 비트코인 투자: 약 15억 달러 투자 중 약 10억 달러의 평가이익이 발생했다고 설명. 이는 2020년 전기차 판매 이익보다 큰 규모라고 언급. 단순 투자가 아니라 결제 측면까지 고려한 장기 전략으로 봄. 기업 비트코인 편입 전망: 향후 12~18개월 내 상장사의 3~5%가 비트코인을 편입할 것으로 전망. 다만 규제 기준이 마련되기 전까지는 확산이 크지 않을 것이라고 봄. 투자 근거: 투기적 매수 및 법정화폐 가치하락(통화 희석)에 대한 헤지 수단으로 설명. 마이크로스트래티지, 스퀘어 등도 동일한 흐름으로 언급. 생태계 확장: 비트코인 자체보다 블록체인, 반도체, 결제 생태계가 새로 형성되는 흐름이 더 큰 이야기라고 강조. 모델Y 이슈: 테슬라 판매 페이지에서 모델Y standard range가 사라지고 가격 인하가 있었다는 질문에, 중국 등에서 가격 인하는 계속될 것이나 모델3·모델Y 합산 판매는 2021년 80만 대, 2022년 100만 대 페이스라고 설명. 전기차 시장은 향후 10년간 5조 달러 규모로 성장할 것이며 모델Y가 그 핵심 역할을 할 것으로 전망. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 및 비트코인 관련 강세 입장 유지. 단기 변동성은 인정하나 장기 성장성에 대해 긍정적.

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01. it's uh down seven eight percent today i'm talking about bitcoin tesla's down i don't know if that's related i'm sure it's not but um if tesla or if bitcoin were to have one of these uh moves that we've seen in previous years from the high and i'm not i don't know whether things have changed with with more mass adoption and everything else going on dan but just for argument's sake let's say that it did go down significantly could that have a material effect on tesla just like the the positive move had on that billion dollar number you were talking about yeah it's a great question obviously it just adds to the volatility in the story it still contained 1.5 billion that they invested but i think this is not just a fad i think tesla's going to continue to double down on its bitcoin investment and you're seeing from a transaction perspective as well but no doubt that they've made about a billion dollars on paper from bitcoin that's more they made from a profit and all of ev sales 2020.

02. i think it just speaks to what we're seeing in terms of this market so what if they lost a billion look that's that continues to be the doublet sorta in terms of the risk parameters that they put in you know billion and a half of things contain strategy in terms of most investors but no doubt i mean this is something that musk and tesla that they're going to dive into the deep end of the pawn bitcoin because they're not just doing it from an investment perspective but from a transaction uh perspective and in our opinion we think three to five percent of public companies will go down this route over the next 12 to 18 months from an investment perspective but until regulatory goal posts are put in we don't think it ratchets up too much beyond that three to five percent and what's the rationale as a speculative buy as a a hedge against the debasement of fiat currency we had the discussion earlier and i mean it's kind of funny i mean if someone decides look i i i think bonds are going up and i you know a corporate manager puts everything in five-year notes is that manipulating the bond market so i i don't the the corporate managers have a lot of reasons for doing things that might not be transactional uh you think that a percentage of a corporate uh of a corporation's asset should be in bitcoin well i think that's going to be for the company as well as the boards to decide but i think we've seen microstrategy tesla you know square and some others i think this is a trend that that could become more mainstream i think you need regulatory goal posts put in for more boards and companies to go down this route but i think it's going to have a ripple effect in terms of what musk and tesla have done here but i think the bigger story is what we're seeing on blockchain semis and payments this is really creating a whole new ecosystem with you know musk and tesla definitely taking a bit mainstream what we're seeing what about um the model y what can you tell me did you see this headline today uh that that we're seeing that it's no longer listed on the company's sales webpage uh price was slashed last week unknown uh where the uh model y standard range why it's not listed anymore do you have any uh knowledge on what's happening there dan yeah i mean look you'll continue to see some price cuts especially in china but if we look overall between model 3 and model y this is a coming right now it's on track to do 800 000 vehicles this year in a million going in 2022 and the heaters will continue to hate on tesla but if we look at evs the golden age that we're going into you know in our opinion there's a five trillion dollar market over the next decade model y is going to play a factor in that you know we think that's strong out of the gates especially in china