저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 'Christmas Recession' 트윗은 소매 재고 과잉(bullwhip 효과)이 디스인플레이션을 낳고, 이후 연준의 금리 인하·양적완화 복귀로 이어질 수 있다는 의미로 해석된다. 트윗 배경: 버리는 2022년 6월 24일경 '크리스마스 7월(Christmas in July)'이라는 암호 같은 트윗을 올렸고, 6월 27일 후속 트윗에서 소매 공급 과잉이 bullwhip 효과라고 설명했다. bullwhip 효과 설명: 소매 수요의 작은 변동이 도매·제조·원자재 단계로 갈수록 확대되는 공급망 현상이다. 2017년 RV 딜러 재고 과잉 후 2018년 RV 관련 주가가 70% 이상 하락한 사례가 언급된다. 현재 상황: 타깃, 월마트, 갭, 아메리칸이글 등 주요 미국 소매업체가 실적 발표에서 재고 과잉을 언급했다. 일부 업체는 환불 상품을 소비자가 그냥 갖도록 허용할 만큼 재고 처리 비용이 크다는 CNN 기사가 인용된다. 전망 논리: 재고 과잉은 소매 가격 인하 압력(디플레이션 압력)이 되고, 그 결과 연말 소비자물가지수(CPI) 인플레이션이 둔화(디스인플레이션)되며, 연준이 금리를 낮추고 양적긴축을 되돌릴 수 있다는 것이다. 디플레이션 자체보다는 인플레이션 둔화로 보는 것이 핵심 논지다. 인플레이션 관련: 워싱턴포스트 기사의 'transitory(일시적)' 요소 언급을 인용하며, 파월 연준의 과거 '일시적' 발언은 실패였다고 평가한다. 다만 경제 여건은 빠르게 바뀔 수 있어 공급망 문제 완화로 인플레이션 압력이 줄 수 있다고 본다. 버리 평가: 단기 거시 환경 예측은 올해와 작년에 대체로 잘 맞췄다고 평가한다. 결론적 입장: 올해 남은 기간 인플레이션이 둔화되고, 연준이 금리 인상 중단을 넘어 금리 인하로 전환할 수 있다는 버리의 전망에 주목할 만하다는 입장이다. 단, 투자 판단에 직접 쓰기보다는 관찰 대상으로 본다고 명시했다. 투자 조언 성격: 영상은 예측이 투자 결정에 영향을 주지 않아야 한다는 입장을 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
not really religious but this week my prayers have been answered michael bury most well known as the protagonist in paramount pitches the big short provided a follow-up on one of his incredibly cryptic tweets about the stock market crash and impending recession i spoke about this tweet and other recent posts by michael bury in a video that i posted last week which by the way hit 100 000 views in the first 48 hours thanks to your support so give yourselves a big round of applause today i'm gonna be breaking down his latest follow-up tweet in which bre made a big prediction about what inflation interest rates and the broad economy may look like over the remainder of the year and while i'm of the opinion that these predictions shouldn't influence your investing decisions they are interesting to observe and considering buri's track record he is someone that i enjoy paying attention to also 92 percent of you are not subscribed yes 92 percent wouldn't it be awesome if every one of you just went below this video hit that subscribe button for free and over the next week we can watch my subscriber count skyrocket over a hundred thousand and force youtube to send me a big silver plaque okay that sounded more interesting in my head before we talk about the tweet that's going to be the main focus of this video it's important to understand the context of what that was a follow-up to and it was a follow-up to another tweet that michael brewery posted just four days before this other tweet and in that tweet he said question in 2022 what brings a christmas in july answer a disinflationary overstocked consumer recession at christmas and the vague interpretation that i gave last week in my video was something along the lines of some kind of disinflationary so not deflation but a slowing in inflation uh relating to uh overstocked inventories that happened at christmas last year in 2021 was going to cause some kind of event to happen in the next month or so but if i'm being completely honest you guys had much better interpretations of what this tweet could mean but it was interesting to see that it's such a cryptic tweet that there was actually such a wide array of of ways that you could have interpreted this tweet dave seems to think that it means the best case scenario is decelerating inflation and in other words that declining prices is something or deflation is something that we should consider off the table out of the question or it could mean that consumer saving will be worse at christmas but right now people are cashed up or in the other direction it could mean that panic buying in the next month will actually drive prices even higher and there were many other ways that people interpreted this tweet which was extremely cryptic even for michael burry i know last week i said that michael bury was the economic version of batman i now really think i agree with this comment in that he's really the riddler fortunately michael bori actually gave us a follow-up tweet a couple of days later with an explanation of what he meant by that tweet on the 27th of june he said this supply glut at retail is the bull whip effect google it worth understanding for your investing endeavors deflationary pulses from this leads to disinflation in the consumer price index later in the year which leads to the fed reversing itself on interest rates and quantitative tightening which leads to cycles he also included a link to a cnn article about retailers being so overstocked that they're considering allowing refunded goods to be kept by consumers but before we get into that article and some other articles around it let's first understand what is meant by the bull whip effect the bull whip effect is a supply chain phenomenon describing how small fluctuations in demand at the retail level can cause progressively larger fluctuations in demand at the wholesale distributor manufacturer and raw material supplier levels the effect is named after the physics involved in cracking a whip this is actually the same effect that caused rv stocks or recreational vehicle stocks to drop by over 70 percent in 2018 in 2017 at the retail level or at the dealership level in the rv industry demand was surging and this ultimately led to dealerships accidentally overstocking their lots or their dealerships in 2018 and what that meant was when demand dried up at the end of 2017 rv dealers were forced to sell those rvs that were filling up their lots for far less than they expected to and far worse for manufacturers manufacturers were not receiving barely any orders from dealers who already had full lots and had to get rid of their existing inventory before placing new orders in this case in 2022 a small spike in retail demand for consumer goods is driving an overstocking of inventory at the wholesale level and we know this because some of the biggest us retailers have all had their earnings calls recently and have spoken about in their earnings calls and earnings releases how they're seeing this effect this includes major retailers such as target walmart gap and american eagle outfitters who all mentioned that they had overstocked inventories so how does this effect explain what brewery expects to see and what does this have to do with disinflation and christmas in july as his recent tweet indicates overstocked retailers is a deflationary pressure as it likely results in retailers lowering their prices of goods in order to clear out old inventory and this is precisely what the article he shared indicates in fact the article goes further suggesting that overstocking is so bad for some retailers that they're allowing people wanting refunds on goods to also keep the goods think about that for a second the cost of retailers receiving inventory back from a refund is so high that they would rather just give the goods away for free brewery's tweet goes on to say that deflationary pressure will result in disinflation later this year so even though they are deflationary pressures at the retail level it's likely that instead of us seeing deflation we will just see inflation slow down to a lower level and then ultimately driving a reversal in federal reserve monetary policy meaning a decline in interest rates and maybe even a return to quantitative easing and i think this line in a washington post article sums it up quite well as laughable as it may seem there may still be a transitory element to current inflation don't get me wrong it is very laughable to bring up that word transitory again after it's been such a disaster for jerome powell in the federal reserve who used that term to suggest that inflation was going to essentially go away by itself as supply chain issues eased and it really led them to in hindsight make some terrible monetary policy decisions leading to the exacerbating and terrible inflation rate that we see today but ultimately in economics while we saw inflation that was far in excess of what most people expected economic conditions can change quickly again in the opposite direction we ultimately don't know so it's not out of the question that supply chain issues that have been plaguing global markets for so long now could actually ease and help ease some of the inflationary pressures being seen around the world murray has been pretty much spot on this year and even last year on his predictions in the short-term macro environment but what do you think about this prediction his prediction that inflation is ultimately going to slow down for the remainder of the year and monetary policy actually might reverse we may see not only no more rate hikes but a reversal a decline in interest rates coming out of the federal reserve regardless if you enjoyed today's video make sure you leave a like on it that's the best way you can show me or hit subscribe if you want to stay up to date with the content that i post in the future with that said hope you guys have a great week i'll see you in the next one
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