저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
중국 경제 둔화에도 기술주 중심 주가 강세가 예상되며 소비 섹터는 회피 권고. 인도는 장기적으로 유망하며 반도체·소비재·전자제품 수혜 기대. 금·은은 과열로 보고 20% 조정 시 재매수 고려, 현재 금은 포트폴리오 15% 이상이면 차익실현 적기로 언급. 현금 약 20% 보유 중이며 인도 비중은 20%에서 최대 30%까지 확대 의향.
다듬은 글
China's economy is showing signs of weakening further. Yet when you take a look at the stock market, it is a different story. The MSCI Asia-Pac index for China was actually up 28% last year. Shanghai up 18% and we're seeing continued gains in 2026. It begs the question, is it sustainable? Yes, it is.
But remember, the stock market looks forward. It's not looking backwards. And the stock market is telling us that what China is doing in the technology sector is going to be very exciting going forward. You know, it's interesting to note what we just heard about China not giving enough money into the consumer sector.
But where that money is going is in technology. You must remember China's goal now is to overtake the US in technology, in high level chips, in all kinds of A.I.. So the money is going in that direction, not in the consumer's direction. And the government doesn't really care much about what's happening on the consumer level.
As long as things are relatively peaceful and people are not going to start riding on the streets. So the money is going in that direction. And the market is telling us that some of these tech companies in China are going to be quite exciting. So this is the kind of thing we've got to look at. They may be exciting, but will they impact the economy in a significant way?
Are they able to revise the growth story in China? No, they will not, because as you heard, the way to revive the economy is by pushing the consumer sector, in other words, becoming more like the U.S., where the consumer leads the economy and grows the economy. That's not going to happen in China. The emphasis is going to be an industry and technology, and that will not be reflected immediately in the GDP figures.
So you won't see the kind of growth that we have been seeing in the past, of course. In addition to that, generally speaking, we're never going to see the seven 8% growth that we saw in the past simply because the population is older, Population is smaller than it was before. And you have to see that kind of dynamism that we saw previously.
Mark. Aren't there risks in investing in a market when fundamentals are in question? We talk about consumption, which should be driving growth. We talk about the property sector, which is struggling to get revived. I mean, these are key sectors in the economy under risks in investing in China when fundamentals are not quite intact.
Yeah, there's a risk to investing in the property sector and in the consumer's act that you want to stay away from those sectors for now. But the technology sector is a different story. That's where you should be looking, and it will be reflected immediately in the GDP figures. So the macro picture will not be a good indicator of where you want to go in China.
You want to look at the technology sector. What are you seeing in terms of fund flows? We've been talking about how there's been a rotation from the U.S. to Asia, particularly to China. What are you seeing? Well, I think, first of all, yes, it is true that people are diversifying away from the US market, mainly because the US market has done so well and they have made so much money.
So there's a lot of money sloshing around looking for a home. So anybody who wants to have a good portfolio wants to be diversified. So what's happened? They've seen their US portion of their portfolio growing very fast and the international portfolio has not gone so fast. So now they're shifting more into international markets.
And of course, if you look at international markets, you have to look at China, number one, and then India, Korea, Taiwan. These are the markets that and by the way, those markets are doing quite well, as you know. Is China also benefiting from all the geopolitical developments we're seeing in Latin America, in the Middle East?
Actually, China's not doing too well in Latin America, as you know, with the situation in Venezuela. Of course, China is the largest exporter for Latin America being the largest importer of Chinese goods. So that's helped a great deal. They diversified their network of export hubs. But at the end of the day, the growth is going to be in, as I mentioned, technology, and particularly as the US situation becomes more normalized, the US will still be buying more and more Chinese goods directly or indirectly.
We know that you're back on India and China, one of the other emerging markets which might show potential. I mean, we talk about Brazil, Argentina perhaps being the next wave of growth. Are you still holding that view? Vietnam comes to mind immediately. Taiwan is looking very good. Further down the road, perhaps Brazil.
But Brazil is now going to be going through political change. So it's a little bit of a question mark there. Those are the main countries that I would say stand out. What we want to be looking for. Some people were talking about Southeast Asian economies just last year. You know, we have the likes of Thailand holding an election next month.
We also have Indonesia struggling to revive its growth. How are you looking at some of these Southeast Asian economies? They're doing fine, but they're not going to be very exciting going forward simply because their export push has not been very, very good. And at the end of the day, they have their government structure has not allowed them to focus on various industries, whereas in the case of Vietnam, the government has been very amenable to technology growth and to export growth and to taking over a lot of the manufacturing that was done in China.
Mark. Of course, the other theme in the market right now is precious metals. We've seen quite a run for the likes of gold and silver. In fact, silver gained 20% over a course of four days. And we have the likes of Jp morgan saying that gold could get to 5000. What's your take on precious, precious metals in 2026?
Everybody's excited about precious metals. I get questions every day. People buy silver. Should I buy gold? Why should I buy etc., etc.? At the end of the day, I think it's gotten too hot. In fact, just the other day someone asked me, Should I buy silver now? I said, Look, it's possible that it'll go much higher than it is now, but no one really knows.
And it's very, very volatile. So you've got to be careful when the market is so hot. But there's no question there are lots of arguments for silver and gold to go much higher than they are now. A lot of it is linked to a weaker US. A lot of people think that the dollar will get weaker from where it is now.
But that's also a big question mark, because my thinking is that probably the dollar could turn around and get stronger from where it is now as the the you know, the predictions regarding the US economy say that the economy will turn around and GDP growth in America will be much better this year than it was last year.
That's if that happens, then the dollar will get stronger and the precious metals will not be attractive. People talk about how gold is now a diversifier, not just a haven play. I'm looking at gold right now easing somewhat. At what level would you be picking up gold again? I would not pick it up at this level, that's for sure.
Maybe 20% lower from where it is now. But I would not run after gold at this stage. As you know, in the past I said you should have at least 10% of your portfolio in gold. Now, of course, with the rise in price, it's probably got to 15 or more to 15% or more. So maybe it's a good time to take some profits.
And how much cash are you holding in your portfolio? We're having about 20% in cash now. The markets are pretty wild, pretty high. And I think it's a good idea to reserve some cash. And we know Mark is an India bull, has been in India bull for a very long time. Though Mark India disappointed last year.
Will it be different in 2026? I think it will be different. As you see, the market is now doing very well and I think it will continue to do well. But I take a longer view about India. India has lots of problems. The bureaucracy is slowing down the economy in many, many ways. But still, despite that, the growth has been tremendous, six 7% growth.
Now, Modi, I think, is taking measures to curb the bureaucracy and to try to open up the economy more and more. Now, as that takes place, are you going to see more momentum, more push to increase spending and investment, particularly in the tech sector? So I think that's going to be the very exciting story going forward for India.
It is exciting, but it will take time. Some say 3 to 5 years. Yet you are forecasting returns of, what, 12 to 15%? What would take us there? First of all, consumer spending, as you know, one point to 1.3 billion people, most of them below the age of 30. Young population, increasing urbanization. This all feeds into an incredible consumer market.
That's number one. Number two, the employment in the electronics industry will be increasing very rapidly. I believe going forward, India will become a major producer of semiconductors. Now, that sounds farfetched at this stage, but there's no question that they have the capability to become a major semiconductor producer, and they must do that because they must catch up with China and the U.S., given the incredible population they have and given the fact that they're becoming a major exporter of electronic products.
So how do you position to reap the benefits in the future in the semiconductor, in the tech space in India? What would you be buying now to capitalize on the low valuations? Well, first of all, as you know, many of these semiconductor startups have not been listed yet, so it's difficult to get exposure in that direction.
But you can get exposure in the software area. Let's remember, a lot of the chips software is already being produced and done in India. So we're looking at companies that are in that space. That's one area. The other areas are companies that are just simply now assembling in manufacturing, consumer electronics, and they're going to be going upstream into more sophisticated components.
So that's another area that we want to look at. It's hard not to compare India and China despite the fantastic run China has done. You say that India remains the top market even for the foreseeable future. Why is that, Mark? What's what's driving that optimism? Well, first of all, the size the size of the country is incredible, number one.
Number two, the use of the population. Number two. Number three, the fact that you have a incredible absorption capacity of technology from all over the world because you have an English speaking elite group of people, very well educated that can absorb this technology. As you know, if you go around the world, you see Indians training in every direction and doing a lot of tech work.
So all of these these components are coming together and having an incredible impact on what's happening in India. And you must remember, the point with India is that it's open in the sense that you have a very open economy. You have states with different states competing with each other. And this is very, very good and very, very prosperous.
When you think about the growth coming going forward. As you wait for India to perform, how do you navigate the headwinds? Currently, we're seeing a rupee that's among the worst performers in the Asia-Pac region. We also have uncertainties to do with a trade pact with the US. Modi and Trump are not getting on too well.
I mean, how do you navigate all those uncertainties? ALL Yeah, they Trump Modi situation looks bad, but actually it's not as bad as you think. As you know what, it says many things that he doesn't mean it's purely bargaining that's taking place. And I tell you frankly, you don't want to go up against India when it comes to bargaining, as the Indians are terrific bargainers.
They know how to bargain. So I think this is a cat and mouse game that will go on for a while. But generally speaking, trade with India and China. Will India and the US will do very well. And by the way, trade with India and China will also do well. So I think India is open and very, very good in terms of international trade.
The interesting thing about India going forward is that they're going to be doing a lot more consumer electronics growth. When you look at what's happening in how a lot of this manufacturing is being transferred from China to India, that's going to be a very exciting thing. And of course, a lot of that product will be going to the US.
Ma'am, given your love for the Indian market, I'm just wondering, what's the weightage of India in your portfolio? Is it still at 20%? And are you still targeting 30? Yes, we're at 20% now, and depending on what we can find, we'd probably go up to 30. How do you balance, I guess, the the concentration of your portfolio in India while still wanting to diversify to to protect that portfolio?
Yeah, but you must remember, within this 20%, we're very diversified across many industries, different industries in India. So in that sense, we're getting diversification. And it's true that you've got to be careful when you're having a portfolio. You want to be diversified, but at the same time, you want to have that growth, you want to have that performance.
And the way to do it is going into areas that are growing fast and that are expected to grow fast. You know, only conversation. You didn't talk about the Adani Group. You talk about how investing in Adani is investing in India. Is that still the case and how are you looking at this company and the prospects going forward?
Well, when you invest in Adani, you're not only investing in India, but you're investing in the infrastructure globally because you know, they're very much of a global firm and they're doing things all over the world. But I do want to emphasize Adani too much because you've got Reliance, you've got a lot of other great companies in India.
We will be putting all eggs in the Adani basket. You've got to look at so many of the other companies and particularly the software areas, very exciting for India so that they will do well. They're very exciting companies, but at the same time there are many other players that will be doing as well, if not even doing better.
What is the one Indian assets you must hold in 2026 for the best returns? I would say to begin with, A you have to look at I wouldn't I don't want to mention the individual company, but I would say you'd have to look at the consumer sector to begin with of retailing or consumer goods. That sector would be probably the most exciting at this stage.
But going forward, you've got to start putting some of those things into the consumer and into the consumer technology sector.
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