저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세·무역전쟁과 불확실성으로 경기침체 확률을 약 50%로 보며 인플레이션·성장둔화 우려를 언급. 미중 합의와 영국·미국 협상은 긍정적이나 변동성은 지속될 것으로 봄. 미국 재정적자(GDP 6~7%)와 장기금리 상승 위험을 경고. 미국은 여전히 최고의 투자처지만 규제 과잉으로 경쟁력 약화 가능성을 지적. 직원 재택근무 축소 등 조직 관련 발언도 포함.
다듬은 글
Trade wars, markets up and down. What did you learn in the last month? Not much. Other than that, we have all this uncertainty. You know, some preceded the new administration, like we had large deficits, interest rates going up, inflation going up in summer, you know, tariffs and things. And of course, the geopolitical situation is very tense, very difficult and hard to resolve.
I guess if you forget projections, numbers, what's your hunch? Is the US going to go into recession or not? Well, I'm going to defer to economists who give it about a 50% chance. I think all these things are probably inflationary. A little bit more. And slowing down the economy. If there's a recession, I don't know how big it will be or how long it will last.
Hopefully we'll avoid it. But I wouldn't take it off the table at this point. If you look at, you know, the trade war and then the somewhat reconciliation between the US and China, does it hold? I think it's the right thing to do is to back off of some of that stuff. You know, to have an engage in conversation.
I'm grateful they did the US UK deal. You know, it's an agreement in principle. So, you know, there's a lot of uncertainty still and there's diversity still in the China thing, but we restarted it obviously calms down the markets. That's not the reason to do it for democracy, you know, do vote or something like that.
And so you'll still have uncertainty to resolve your 90 day triggers and all of these things, and hopefully they will be resolved. I don't expect immediate resolution, you know, to the satisfaction of everybody in 90 days. But would you expect markets to settle from here because we have a little bit more of a blueprint or could volatility pick back up in any second?
You know, markets are quite unpredictable. I think there's a lot of uncertainty out there that you can't discount, you know, you know, war in Ukraine, terrorism, the Middle East, you know, Iran, you know, huge deficits. Our tax bill, which I would like to see a good tax bill passed, you know, the tariffs, the reaction of country to tariffs, the EU and the UK are about to negotiate.
I think they have a chance to actually develop a great relationship, you know, partially making up for, you know, the disaster that Brexit became. And so, yeah, those those are uncertainties. You can't eliminate them because you want to. But what are your biggest clients saying about this market volatility?
Have they made money on the back of it? Yeah, some, you know, some do have, some don't. And you know, volatility volatility could be good or bad depending on who who's facing it. So but I but I would expect continued volatility. I think it's a mistake to think we can go through all the things we're going through and the volatility itself will come down.
Has it been good for JPMorgan? What's your, you know, trading reform? Yes, because when there's volatility, there's a very simplistic way to look at spreads gap out and traders make more money if there's more volume. So we had both this time more volatility, more volume, but very often you have a lot of volatility and spreads cap out, there's much less volume.
So you've seen examples where there's good volatility and there's bad volatility. This one having to be good. The next go around may not be so good. Jamie, when it comes to financials, I mean, you know, a lot of I guess non-bank entrants are making quite a lot of way Citadel, Jane Street, is that a, you know, a concern for the banks?
Should it be a problem for the banks? I wouldn't call it a problem. You know, they're both clients. I'm very capable, you know, But I've always had the view there are a lot of competitors out there and, you know, all the major banks are back. I think it's a good thing for the world, maybe not so much for Jp morgan.
There's you mentioned also there's Apollo. There's a lot of fintechs, some very good ones. There's Stripe, there's PayPal. Yeah, My view has always been the same. I tell them as you assume competition, assume they're coming at you in every angle. Assume they they often have their own strengths, sometimes their own weaknesses.
They won't all do great. But yeah, I think they're you know, some of these people are gaining quite a bit of share in parts of business. We still are too, by the way. So, you know, we're in the fight. We're not losing out very much. But that doesn't mean you won't lose out tomorrow because you're winning today.
So what do you have to do today? How do you see the people that are doing well today doing even better tomorrow? Us or other people? Both. I mean, we have we have exceptional people in investment banking and sales and trading. And I put right next to technology, but it's related because it's those people deploying technology.
So there are thousands of technology projects and then there are, you know, hundreds of AI projects, all of which are meant to do a better job for customers, consumer research, how we deliver things to people. And if you don't move, you know you're going to be left behind. I mean, I remind you, could be a country or a company.
You do not have a divine right to success. You know, we mentioned management learnings. They did you can see it in YouTube and all that. But I put out to people, look at the look at Nokia, BlackBerry, Sears, Kmart, Bear Stearns, Lehman chapter of diversified companies, usually because they're complacent, arrogant.
They think they're, you know, the top of the you know, top of the world. And they're not their competitors coming everywhere. And you should assume that's going to be true. Do you see competitors coming from the US? Yeah. Where? Europe? Oh, you. The countries. Countries. Yeah. Yeah, I think Europe. Let me just say, as I think Keir Starmer, Merz and Macron.
I think Macron one of the best political leaders on the planet today. Okay. I think Keir Starmer is smart, devoted. They're saying the right things, public and privately. All of them talk about growing the economies. Thank God, pro business, pro capital. And they're doing all that to improve the lot of their citizens.
It's not about what they're doing for Jp morgan. And if I was Europe, absolutely, I believe I'd want to agree with the U.K. military economic, and I would reform as best I can all of European things with the old talk about now, deregulation, simplification, and yeah, they could be in America and would be good for America.
It doesn't make me sad. It makes me happy that they're strong and then, you know, they're allies. I want to allies to be strong and powerful militarily and economically. Do you worry about U.S. supremacy, actually. Exceptionalism. Yeah. I look, I never believer quite that exception. I mean, remember, America is an unbelievable country with freedoms and gifts of God and, you know, water, food, energy.
Then the gifts the founding fathers called freedom of religion, freedom of speech from an enterprise that was dwarf everything. And so we still had the most prosperous economy the world's ever seen. But the Americans shouldn't take it as a divine right. to succeed. We've slowed ourselves down with regulation, stupid bureaucracy.
You know, we're not getting. We haven't done budgets in years, you know? So, no, we shouldn't assume it's forever. I don't think our we'll still be preeminent, you know, militarily, economically, for a long time, you know, But if we don't do everything right, we can lose that to, you know, 20, 30, 40 years from now.
And I think very important America, the goal of America should be to help the military alliances, the Western world, and to help the economic allies of the Western world, to work side by side like you did in a victory in Europe day the other day, here to strengthen the Western world and hold it together, you know, not to cause it to fragment.
And so I think we have to work hard to make sure that's the case. Do you worry about deficits and do you worry actually in the US? And do you worry also about the U.S. dollar remaining as a reserve currency? Do you think Europe has what it takes to try and put the euro in there? Yeah. So I, I should have mentioned deficit up front has been one of the issues you have to do.
I think acid prices are quite high too, and those create various risk for America. Our deficit is almost $2 trillion, six or 7% of GDP, the largest peacetime deficit ever, and we have 100% debt to GDP. That hundred percent debt to GDP is kind of. Universal almost around Europe on average, but your deficit is much more.
Does that create a risk? Absolutely. Increase the risk of inflation. To me, it creates risk of higher long term rates. Well, you know, but America, with the dollar, get weak, I don't know. That's a slightly different I think you could see rates go up, the long bond rates go up, and that might slow down the growth.
And that's how we, you know, kind of a stagflation kind of scenario. What would you I mean, you must see President Trump regularly. What do you what do you tell him? What would you tell? I talk to all of his. I talk to all the folks there. I wrote about my chairman's letter. I mean, we have to America should worry about things we can do better.
You know, I call it blue tape. I mean, we are regulated. We are out of control. We're doing the same stuff that they did here that, you know, virtually the American public no know, the GDP per person in Europe has gone from something like 90% of Americans to 65%. And they did it to themselves. Rules, regulations over complication.
They started the European Union, which I think is a huge accomplishment of mankind. They've got to finish it. And here they they called the Capital Markets Union, the banking union. You know, they have to create a big common market of 40 or 50 million people. And so in America, it's the same thing. It's regulations is permitting.
You know, we've overdone. We've wasted a lot of money in the green economy. It's getting jobs back. It's good training in schools. It's fixing immigration. So we stopped at the border, but now we have to have a more merit based immigration, more seasonal immigration, you know, things that could help the country grow.
And and then we have to work on our military alliances, our economic alliances. And that's for the sake of the future free and democratic world. But on the economic alliances, is is there a concern that actually certain countries in Europe or elsewhere will choose non-U.S. bank for bond issuances, will choose non-U.S.
asset managers to manage their pensions? Yeah, there'll be a little of that. You know, I mean, you know, we we irritate a lot of people. So I wrote run to let me say, you know, like they're not fine are, you know, Kentucky bourbon or something like that. There'll be some of that. And I think it's pretty reasonable for you know, I spoke to a lot of investors here.
They're thinking about the asset allocation, the United States. Will they diminished other possibly. Is America a bad investment destination? No. If you will take all of your money and put it in one country, it would still be America. I mean, it's still the most prosperous nation, the planet. It's got the best military on the planet, got huge amounts of innovation People, people are catching up.
That's a good thing. You know, China is doing some very good innovation and medical and AI, and we should assume they're going to do that. But America still got the best. Our GDP for us is $85,000. You know, China, 5,000. We're not the news shamed about we should fix our problems because we could grow a lot faster, which help all of our citizens.
But if you put too too many tariffs and actually too much uncertainty, does that not squander a lot of the assets that the U.S.? I mean, I think they're doing the right thing now, which is to back off of it. But, you know, the secretary of treasury do the hard work of figuring out what's the right thing to do if they're unfair trade things, do something about it, you know, But they have backed off of specific things in specific industries.
And I, I think that's the right thing to do. I think the first thing was very large, you know, that everything everywhere, all at once. And now they're, you know, kind of back to where I think they should be in terms. But even at this level, of course, that kind of uncertainty, even this level, you see people holding back on investment and thinking through what they want to do, you know, thinking about, you know, how much you can put the United States in.
I mean, it will give be okay. But it is causing that uncertainty. And we're looking at the president, of course, in the Middle East where there were CEOs, you know, deals that were signed and a lot of Wall Street, some of your competitors say, ah, what's your strategy for the Middle East? How much you want to grow there?
Well, we go everywhere. I mean, you know, we go country by country and we look at, you know, we bank country, city schools, state hospitals, you know, big companies everywhere. We have a network effect. So when we bank Bloomberg, we're banking in the United States with banking in London. Paris were banking you in Europe, we're banking you in the Middle East.
That's what we do. So almost every one of those countries were growing. As they grow, we grow, we cover more institutions overseas. We're institutional, the United States. We also have a consumer. And so, you know, as you know, we're just testing consumer in Chase, U.K. to them. Yeah. And you're growing actually that retail business a lot in the U.K.
What's next for them? I hope to we hope to grow it more in the U.K. and add some products that eventually we've already announced are going to go to Germany. I think we have a chance to build a great digital bank. And we have competitive advantages. We have a brand, we have research, we have a balance sheet.
We've got capabilities to add. You know, we're not going to announce it today. We would add more capabilities over time. So and then someone like you, if you travel the United States and the U.K., you can be a move your money between Chase, U.S. and Chase U.K. on your phone. So we add things that make your life better.
As a consumer of our banking products, you certainly cause some waves in, you know, talking about return to the office. I think there might have been a little bit square motive. A little bit, Yeah. There are not people isn't. Yeah, Yeah, we're back. Back full time. I first of all, I tried I did emote.
There I am. You know, people know me and I don't really care about that. I don't worry about. But I am I want to answer the guy who has a legitimate question. And I gave it a very detailed answer about why it doesn't work for young people, why it doesn't work for magic, why it doesn't work for innovation.
I completely applaud your right to not you want to go to the office every day, but you're not going to tell JPMorgan what you do. And I think we already have 10% of jobs at home. I'm not against work from home. I'm against work when it doesn't work. And then of course, the press made a big deal about the petition and all that.
It was like not even mosquito. Okay. Most people back some people we've had no additional attrition. You know, we had to make some modification. Now we have enough seats in certain areas and it will be a better company. And I think our employees will be happier over time and the younger people learn the right way.
You know, it's an apprenticeship system and you can't learn working from your basement.
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